Stock and bond markets rallied.
Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished higher for the 10th time in 12 weeks. Bond markets moved higher, too, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropping just below 2.6 percent, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron's. Yields on 10-year Treasuries haven't been this low since January 2018.
The simultaneous rallies are curious because improving share prices are often an indication of a strong or strengthening economy. Improving bond prices tend to be a sign of weakening economic growth, reported Michael Santoli of CNBC.
Why are U.S. stock and bond markets telling different stories?
It may have something to do with investor uncertainty. A lot of important issues remain unsettled. The British government appears incapable of resolving Brexit issues, the United States and China have not yet reached a trade agreement, and recent economic reports have caused investors to take a hard look at the U.S. economy.
Barron's
pointed out investors appear to be hedging their bets by favoring in utilities and other stocks that have bond-like characteristics and participate in the stock market's gains. An investment strategist cited by Barron's explained:
"The strength in utilities reflects the attitude of investors who 'don't really buy the rally'...While they're skittish, they still want to participate in the stock market rally but opt for its most conservative sector."
We've seen this before with stocks and bonds, according to a financial strategist cited by Patti Domm of CNBC. "It's a little bit of a funky correlation. We've had both things rallying, which is strange. This is what happened in 2017, when all asset classes did well. In 2018, nothing did well...I would suspect it goes away soon."
Times like these illustrate the importance of having a well-diversified portfolio.
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Data as of 3/15/19
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
2.9%
|
13.0%
|
2.7%
|
11.9%
|
8.7%
|
14.1%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
2.6
|
9.9
|
-8.7
|
6.4
|
1.0
|
7.1
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
2.6
|
NA
|
2.9
|
2.0
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
0.5
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
1.9
|
-1.1
|
3.6
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
1.4
|
6.3
|
-6.6
|
1.2
|
-9.5
|
-2.7
|
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
2.3
|
14.7
|
18.0
|
8.6
|
9.7
|
19.1
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
