6/11/2021

The longer-term outlook through the July Fourth Holiday weekend continues to lean warm and dry west of the Mississippi River. The eastern Midwest is expected to have good growing conditions. Broader outlooks continue to differ dramatically, with some forecasters calling for favorable conditions and others pointing toward hot dry conditions, especially west of the Mississippi. There's generally a bias that the anticipated high-pressure ridge will probably set up west of the Midwest, which would keep areas west of the Mississippi leaning warm, but also allow a northwestern flow in the upper level winds, that could result in storm systems bringing rainfall to most areas. However, there are also increased risks with the current pattern that the warmth could push the jet stream north amid signs that wind speeds at the jet stream level may slow. That could make it more difficult for low pressures to develop in the Plains and western Midwest, increasing the drought threat. Cool waters off the West Coast stretching southwest toward Hawaii also tend to weaken the sub-tropical jet that normally supplies moisture to these systems over the Midwest. The bottom line is that the size of this year's corn and soybean crops are yet to be determined, but the risks are higher than normal in a year when global supplies are tight, demand remains strong, and Brazil has already had a short corn crop.