Climate change drives considerable risks. Designing strategies to manage these risks poses nontrivial challenges. For one, projections about the Earth system dynamics are deeply uncertain. Furthermore, we may lack actionable early warning signs to inform adaptive decision-making. In addition, stakeholders and decision-makers have diverse and often conflicting objectives. Using the example of coastal flood risk management, this presentation reviews approaches (i) to improve our understanding of past and potential future Earth system changes and (ii) to use this information to improve the design of risk management strategies.
