Update: The Impact of COVID-19
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Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.
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Through June 14th, 2021 we have collected 85.1% of charges for the month. Resident receipts are:
- Down (0.4%) compared to May 2021 through the 14th
- Down (0.2%) compared to April 2021 through the 14th
- Up 1% compared to March 2021 through the 14th
- Down (3%) compared to October 2019 through the 14th
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Subsidy: Cumulative subsidy receipts for the month are 96% collected, which is:
- Down (4%) compared to May 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (6%) compared to April 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (4%) compared to March 2021 through the 14th.
- Up 5% compared to October 2019 through the 14th.
Total Receipts: Cumulative receipts for the month are 91% collected, which is:
- Down (2%) compared to May 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (2%) compared to April 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (1%) compared to March 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (2%) compared to October 2019 through the 14th.
Receipts at Senior properties are 95% collected, which is:
- Flat compared to May 2021 through the 14th.
- Flat compared to April 2021 through the 14th.
- Flat compared to March 2021 through the 14th.
- Flat compared to October 2019 through the 14th.
Receipts at Family properties are 83% collected, which is:
- Down (1%) compared to May 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (1%) compared to April 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (1%) compared to March 2021 through the 14th.
- Down (4%) compared to October 2019 through the 14th.
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The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in June 2021 through the 14th. Out of the 201 properties, 12 have collected less than 60% of June 2021 charges representing $0.3M remaining to collect while 38 properties have collected over 95% representing $0.1M remaining to collect.
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The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends.
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Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.
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The total COVID death toll in the US reached 600,000 this week. Although daily deaths have hit their lowest point since March 2020, due in large part to the rollout of the vaccines. The daily deaths, once at around 3,000 per day in January, are now under 350. High vaccination rates of those 65 and older, the group most likely to die due to COVID, have kept the number of total deaths low in the US. (WSJ)
A new study suggests that COVID-19 was in the United States months before the first official reported case in January 2020. Although some experts find the data to be flawed. Blood samples of donated blood from Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, and Massachusetts, revealed antibodies for the coronavirus prior to their states’ first diagnosed case. There is a likelihood of some false positives, but it would be very unlikely for all of the results to be false positives, according to Dr. Josh Denny, chief executive of the NIH project All of Us. (New York Times)
As the US emerges from pandemic lockdowns, colds and common viruses are returning – affecting children the most. Due to quarantine and lockdowns, most children did not build up familiarity with these common viruses. Many southern states are seeing increased illness in kids, and the CDC issued an advisory warning last week about the increase of respiratory syncytial virus, RSV, in ten southern states. It is uncommon to have this many sick children in the summer, which is attributed to the “[relaxed] coronavirus avoidance strategies.” (Washington Post)
The June 10th episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19 discusses the virus origin controversy, immune passports, new variants, and the international spread of COVID-19.
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IHME has changed their daily infections and testing to project the trajectory of infections based on easing mandates and closures and universal mask wearing.
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Housing & Employment News
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The eviction moratorium was able to prevent one major housing crisis, however, as home prices surge, affordable places to live are in short supply. The initial wave of evictions did not occur. Those able to save money over the pandemic are buying homes, whereas those affected by job loss and economic insecurity during the pandemic “remain saddled with debt and in danger of losing their homes.” Many relied on government support to pay bills, with one third of renters using unemployment and stimulus checks to pay rent. However, many still had to rely on their savings or borrow to cover any remaining costs. This leaves them vulnerable to potential future financial emergencies. Even with the $5 trillion in federal relief, nearly 7 million renters are behind on rent payments and will need more support. (New York Times)
US homebuilding rebounded less than expected in May, as expensive lumber (up 154.3% year on year in May) and labor and material shortages prevented builders from taking advantage of high home demand. The stock of housing rose 0.5% to an annualized rate of 1.324 million units last month, while realtors estimate a rate of 1.5 to 1.6 million is needed to close the inventory gap. Multifamily starts rose 2.4% to a pace of 474,000 units per year, short of the 551,000 building permits on pace to be issued this year. (Reuters)
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At the Federal Reserve meeting held Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates from near zero to 0.6% by 2023, sooner than they anticipated in their March meeting. That, combined with the discussion of tapering the Fed’s bond-buying program, prompted a much stronger economic rebound and higher inflation than was previously forecasted. Fed officials also reiterated they intend to reduce bond purchases only after inflation stabilizes at 2% and full employment is reached. The results of the meeting show concern over price increases, despite the officials’ continued assertions that temporary factors are at work. (WSJ)
A shrinking labor force adds to pressures for the Fed to raise rates and reduce bond purchases, as continued stimulus is likely to spur less employment before leading to inflation than previously thought. The labor force participation rate is at 61.6%, down from 63.3% in February 2020. Some of that falling labor force participation is due to pandemic-related concerns, but a steadily aging population and surge in retirements during the pandemic are not likely to go away after the pandemic. (WSJ)
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Initial jobless claims fell to 367,000 last week, the first time that figure has been below 400,000 since the start of the pandemic. At the worst of the pandemic, in April 2020, initial claims reached over 6 million, but the latest figures remain roughly twice the pre-pandemic level. (US Department of Labor)
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Other Interesting & Helpful Resources
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State-by-State Actions
Schools:
Stay at Home/Shelter in Place:
Construction Limits:
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Fannie Mae put together a “Here to Help Renters” resource guide. It includes tips for talking to your landlord, top things to know, and options for those in need of financial assistance. Other resources are linked to HUD, CARES Act, and state and local resources.
Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.
HUD has put together a guide and FAQ for Renters during the Pandemic.
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Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.
Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.
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In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.
Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse
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