The ACF Basin is drought-free with some D0 (Abnormally Dry) and D1 (Moderate Drought) in southeast, coastal Florida according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 2/12/2019).
Rainfall Totals Over the Past 90 Days
Rainfall totals the past 90 days throughout the ACF basin range from <2-14 inches with the lower ACF basin receiving higher rainfall totals.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (Feb. - Apr.) favors higher chances for above normal Rainfall.
Real-Time Stream Flow
Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much below normal to high range. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Chattahoochee River at Atlanta 28-Day Averages Streamflows
28-day average streamflows of the Chestatee River near Dahlonega are in the above normal range. The average streamflows of the Chattahoochee River near Cornelia are in the above-normal range. Downstream on the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta average flows are in the much above normal range with average flows even further downstream on the Chattahoochee River near Whitesburg, West Point, and Columbus all in the above normal range. Average streamflows of the Flint River from Griffin to Carsonville, Albany, and Bainbridge are all currently in the above normal range. The streamflows of the Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee are in the above normal range. (for more info: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Real-time Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief: Current Brief:
Groundwater levels range from much below normal to high across the ACF Basin. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts above normal flows for the Apalachicola River, the Chattahoochee River, and the Flint River. The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts similarly above normal flows.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
(as of 2/11/2019)
All USACE ACF basin projects are currently above the guide curve. The flood pool at each project is being evacuated to prepare for the next event.
The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
2018 was an exceptionally wet year, particularly for the Eastern U.S.
The entire ACF basin is currently drought-free.
Most rainfall stations in the ACF basin rank in the top 5 or top 10 precipitation percentiles for the winter-to-date.
Rainfall is above normal at all time scales for the ACF basin.
7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, lesser amounts in the middle and lower ACF.
CPC seasonal forecast (Jan. - Mar.) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall.
Weak El Nino conditions persist; 75% chance they continue through March, but weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast.
ACF Basin Streamflow and Groundwater Level Conditions
Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the much below normal to high range.
28-day average streamflows at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.
28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in the above normal to much above normal range
28-day average streamflows for the Flint River are currently in the above normal range.
Groundwater levels range from much below normal to high across the ACF basin.
ACF Basin Streamflow Forecasts
The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1-Month Streamflow Forecasts predict above normal flows for the entire ACF.
The SERFC's 3-Month Streamflow Forecasts also favor above normal flows throughout the ACF.
*Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
All projects are currently above guide curve.
Evacuating the flood pool at each project to prepare for the next event.
The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Todd Hamill & Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
Cynthia Donald, USACE
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
