A Summary of Drought Conditions:
from the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar 
on
June 11, 2019
 

Auburn University Water Resources Center 

and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
 
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The ACF basin contains D0 and D1 according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 6/4/2019).  
  
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 1 pm ET. 

Current Drought Status
 
Approximately 53.4% of the ACF Basin is in D1 (Moderate Drought) with an additional 35.4% of the ACF Basin in D0 (Abnormally Dry) according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 6/4/2019). 
Rainfall Totals Over the Past 7 Days

        
Rainfall totals the past 7 days throughout the ACF basin range from 0.25 to upwards of 8 inches.

Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook - Precipitation  
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (June - Aug.) predicts an equal chance in the ACF Basin for above-normal, normal, or below- normal precipitation through August.
        
Real-Time Streamflow
   

Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to high range in the upper basin and drier in the lower basin.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )
 
Flint River at Griffin - 28-Day Average Streamflows    

28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the much above normal range.

28-day average flows for the Flint River are trending downwards from the normal range to the below normal range.   

28-day average flows for the Apalachicola River is currently in the normal range, trending towards the below normal range.
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

Real-time Groundwater Conditions

             Previous Brief:                                 Current Brief:
       
          
Groundwater levels range from normal to above normal to much below normal across the ACF Basin.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov )

One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast

 
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts above normal flows for the Chattahoochee River, above normal to near normal for the Flint River,  and near normal for the Apalachicola River. The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts above normal flows for the upper Chattahoochee, near normal flows for the Middle Chattahoochee, and near normal flows for the Flint and the Apalachicola.


U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions 

(as of 6/10/2019) 

All USACE ACF basin projects are currently above the guide curve and are contiuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
  • Strong ridging and hot, dry weather lead to "flash" drought in parts of the Southeast
  • Upper-level low pressure combined with tropical moisture lead to heavy rainfall in the upper and lower ACF last week
  • Southeast Alabama and south Georgia still fairly dry and in moderate to severe drought
  • 7-day forecast (and beyond) continues wet trend
  • El Nino conditions still hanging on - 70% likelihood through summer, near 60% into fall
  • CPC seasonal forecast (June - Aug) favors higher chances for warm temperature, equal chances for rainfall
  • NOAA forecasts a very average hurricane season.
  • El Nino loses much of its influence on weather patterns in late spring/summer
State of Alabama Input
  • The next meeting of the Alabama Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) is June 26, 2019 at 1 pm CST.

ACF Basin  Streamflow and Groundwater Level Conditions
  • Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to above normal range.
  • Hydrologic drought conditions were expanding in Georgia, but perhaps reduced with recent rains this past weekend .  
  • 28-day average streamflows in the Chattahoochee River are currently in the much above normal range.
  • 28-day average streamflows for the Flint River are trending down from the normal to below normal range.
  • Groundwater levels range from above normal to much below normal across the ACF basin.

ACF Basin Streamflow Forecasts
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts above normal flows for the Chattahoochee River, above normal to near normal flows for the Flint River, and near normal flows for the Apalachicola River.
  • The Southeast River Forecast Center's 3-Month Streamflow Forecast predicts above normal flows for the Upper Chattahoochee River and near normal flows for the Middle Chattahoochee, Apalachicola, and Flint Rivers.
  • *Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
  • All projects are currently above guide curve.
  • Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
  • David Zierden, FSU

  • Tom Littlepage, ADECA - OWR

  • Brian McCallum, USGS
  • Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
  • Cynthia Donald, USACE
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 
 
General Drought Information:

General Climate and El NiƱo Information:

Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting
  
Groundwater Monitoring

The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center: