The ACF Basin is drought-free with some D0 (Abnormally Dry) in central Alabama and southeast Georgia and some D1 (Moderate Drought) in east central and southeast Georgia according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 11/06/2018).
Percent of Normal Precipitation Over the Past 90 Days
Well-above normal rainfall departures throughout the ACF basin. Portions of the middle and lower ACF with departures 8-16 inches from normal.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Winter Forecast (Dec. - Feb.) favors higher chances for above normal Rainfall.
Real-Time Stream Flow
Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the above normal to much above normal range. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Flint River at Albany Streamflow
28-day average streamflows of the Chestatee River near Dahlonega are in the normal range. The average streamflows of the Chattahoochee River near Cornelia are in the above-normal range. Further downstream on the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta flows are in the normal range with flows downstream near Whitesburg in the above-normal range. Flows near West Point and Columbus of the Chattahoochee River are in the normal range. Average streamflows of the Flint River from Griffin to Carsonville, Albany, and Bainbridge are all currently in the normal range. The streamflows of the Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee are in the normal range. (for more info: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief: Current Brief:
Groundwater levels range from much below normal to much above normal across the ACF Basin. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts above normal flows for the Apalachicola River, the Chattahoochee River, and the Flint River. The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts similarly above normal flows.
Southeast Lawn-and-Garden Moisture Index Update
(as of 11/13/2018)
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
*Entire ACF Basin is drought-free currently.
*Hurricane Michael devastated the lower ACF with perhaps the most widespread wind damage in U.S. history
*Heavy rain from Michael in the Florida Panhandle, but totals not too extreme in Georgia and the Carolinas because of fast forward movement.
*Rainfall above normal at all time scales
*7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain the next 2 days, then drier and cooler
*Pacific Ocean has transitioned to El Nino, over 80% chance it continues
*Weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast
* Climate Prediction Center official forecast (December-February) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall
*Real-time stream flow in the ACF basin are currently in the above normal to much above normal range.
*28-day average stream flow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia are in the normal range, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the normal range.
*28-day average stream flow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in normal to above normal range.
*28-day average stream flow for the Flint River are currently in normal to above normal range.
*Groundwater levels range from much below normal to much above normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 Month Stream flow Forecasts predict above normal flows for the entire ACF.
*The SERFC's 3-Month Stream flow Forecasts also favor above normal flows throughout the ACF.
*Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
