Class AAAA & AAA Blogs

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CLASS AAAA & AAA BLOGS

Today, Craig Sager II and Seth Ellerbee take a look at Class AAAA and AAA with their biweekly blogs. The second round pairings are listed below and you can CLICK HERE to access the brackets.

IMPORTANT: Registration deadline for Elite Classic coming soon

If you have received an invitation to play in one of the seven Georgia Elite Classic All-Star Games, you must register by next Friday at 5 p.m. Click here to register if you are a middle school invitee; click here if you are a high school invitee; and click here if you are a Brain Bowl invitee. The Classic is still looking for more players to play in The Brain Bowl, which will feature the top sophomore, junior and senior academic football players from across the state. The Brain Bowl is expected to receive a lot of attention from the top academic FCS conferences, such as the Ivy and Patriot Leagues, as well as top D-III academic conferences, like the NESCAC, NEWMAC and Centennial. Also, schools such as Berry, Centre and Rhodes and other schools from the Southern Athletic Association are expected to be at practices and the games. You can make a request to play in the game by e-mailing Rusty Mansell of 247Sports. You can also click here to submit a nomination for the Brain Bowl.

For more information on the seven All-Star Games, go to GeorgiaEliteClassic.com

Visit ScoreATL.com for more coverage.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

IN THIS ISSUE

CLASS AAAA & AAA BLOGS

• • •

FOOTBALL SECOND ROUND PAIRINGS

JOIN OUR MAILING LIST

CLASS AAAA BLOG By Craig Sager II

There are 16 teams remaining that will be fighting for a spot in the quarterfinals this week, and there are intriguing matchups up and down both sides of the bracket. Here’s a look at what each team did in the first round, and what they will be up against this round.

R4#3 Woodward Academy @ R2#1 Mary Persons

Woodward Academy defeated Carver-Columbus 55-40 in the first round. Offensively, the War Eagles can put up points, but they will face a high-powered Mary Persons team that will have no trouble racking up points. Defensively, Mary Persons is also playing outstanding football. The Bulldogs took their first-round matchup with Richmond Academy 59-0. Mary Persons led 52-0 at the half and outgained Richmond Academy 466-to-24 at the break. Quarterback J.T. Hartage completed 9-of-11 pass attempts for 225 yards and four touchdowns.

R7#2 Marist @ R8#1 St. Pius

This is a rematch of last year’s semifinals—which went to Marist—and of this season’s meeting which went to St. Pius 17-0. Marist looked great in the first round—cruising past Heritage-Catoosa 61-20, and St. Pius dominated a solid Cedartown team 38-6. This should be one of the premiere second round matchups in any classification this Friday.

R1#3 Columbus @ R3#1 Baldwin

In the first round, Columbus led Salem 14-0 after the first quarter and 21-6 earlier in the third before closing out a narrow 35-32 road victory. Top-seeded Baldwin jumped out to a 21-10 lead early in the third and cruised past Perry 39-22. Baldwin three-star safety Donte Justice iced the game with 3:09 left as he secured the 10th interception of his senior season.

R6#2 Ridgeland @ R5#1 Cartersville

Ridgeland blew open a 10-7 lead with a 24-point fourth quarter effort score a big 34-14 First Round victory over Flowery Branch. Cartersville also finished strong, breaking open a 13-7 halftime lead to get past Stephens County 34-17.

R3#2 Burke County @ R4#1 Eastside

Undefeated Eastside found itself in a battle with fourth-seeded Hardaway, but prevailed 41-23 thanks to a strong closing effort. Eastside’s lead stood at 27-17 at the break, but Hardaway received the ball to open the third quarter and brought it within 27-23 with 8:43 left in the period. Eastside built the lead back up to 34-23 heading into the fourth, and used a gutsy direct snap on a fake punt to keep its game-clinching touchdown drive alive. Burke County outscored Howard 21-0 in the second quarter of its 28-22 victory. The Bears’ lead stood at 28-8 at the half and 28-15 at the end of the third quarter—proving to be just enough to keep the Huskies from completing their valiant rally in the second half.

R8#2 North Oconee @ R7#1 Blessed Trinity

North Oconee has proven itself time and time again, and now they will visit the defending state champs for their biggest, and likely toughest, game of the year. North Oconee scored an impressive 27-8 win over Sandy Creek in the First Round. As for Blessed Trinity, the Titans were all business—jumping to a 39-0 halftime lead and cruising past Northwest Whitfield 55-16.

R3#3 Thomson @ R1#1 Cairo

Thomson led Upson-Lee 27-0 at the half of its 34-28 victory. The Knights trailed 27-7 at the end of the third quarter and outscored Thomson 21-7 in the fourth quarter to shrink the margin. Cairo jumped to a 30-0 halftime lead and cruised past Henry County 44-0. The Syrupmakers outgained Henry County 417-to-180 in total yardage and only one Warhawk drive managed to cross midfield.

R5#2 Troup @ R6#1 Pickens

Troup defeated Oconee County 42-28 last Thursday and completed its first 10-win season since 2003 in the process. Pickens is on its own historic trail and improved to 11-0 a 42-0 win over White County—the first playoff win in school history. Troup’s high-powered passing game, and Pickens’ unstoppable rushing attack makes this one of the most intriguing, and potentially entertaining, games on the slate.

CLASS AAA BLOG By Seth Ellerbee

The Maxwell Ratings Playoff Projections this week suggest that Cedar Grove will be your Class AAA state football champion nearly half of the time in the computer projections.

Despite Calhoun’s place at the top of the rankings all season, the Maxwell Ratings picks the Saints, 50 percent of the time, to win the 2018 title. So how did that assumption come about?

Let’s hear it from Loren Maxwell, the computer-based creator, before we break down the numbers by each of the bracket's quadrants.

“The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2018 season," Maxwell explains. "The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons. While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments and playoff brackets. All out-of-state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out-of-state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team). Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head-to-head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tiebreaker.”

In laymen's terms, you should look at the number beside your team which shows how many times it is projected to make it to each round of the playoffs. If your number is higher than the opponent’s number, according to the simulation, your team has the better chance to advance.

The projections showed 931,256.33 times that the upcoming state champion should come from a group of teams that includes Cedar Grove, Calhoun, Peach County or Monroe Area. Cedar Grove is the odds leader (1.38), ahead of Calhoun (4.05) and Peach County (4.18). After Monroe Area (7.34), there is a big jump to Greater Atlanta Christian (34.02 odds).

Here's the bracket breakdown, based on projections:

-- Top-left quadrant --

Jackson at Pierce County

To reach the quarterfinals, the Maxwell model showed Jackson 331,147.43 times; Pierce County 668,852.57 times.

Semifinals: Jackson (41,097.60); Pierce County (150,301.64)

Finals: Jackson (3,396.15); Pierce County (21,641.14)

Championship: Jackson (347.61); Pierce County (1,209.88)

Dawson County at Monroe Area

Quarterfinals: Dawson County (246,939.91); Monroe Area (753,060.09)

Semifinals: Dawson County (165,107.41); Monroe Area (643,493.35)

Finals: Dawson County (32,982.64); Monroe Area (250,837.82)

Championship: Dawson County (8,515.80); Monroe Area (119,937.30)

-- Bottom-left quadrant --

Westside-Macon at Benedictine

Quarterfinals: Westside-Macon (300,272.62); Benedictine (699,727.38)

Semifinals: Westside-Macon (30,045.70); Benedictine (129,133.10)

Finals: Westside-Macon (7,227.78); Benedictine (51,576.87)

Championship: Westside-Macon (1,109.82 ); Benedictine (13,872.88)

North Hall at Cedar Grove

Quarterfinals: North Hall (75,090.63); Cedar Grove (924,909.37)

Semifinals: North Hall (28,336.99); Cedar Grove (812,484.22)

Finals: North Hall (7,200.02); Cedar Grove (625,137.57)

Championship: North Hall (1,209.88); Cedar Grove (420,149.28)

-- Top-right quadrant --

Liberty County at Peach County

Quarterfinals: Liberty County (55,409.52); Peach County (944,590.48)

Semifinals: Liberty County (7,679.54); Peach County (684,485.36)

Finals: Liberty County (898.00); Peach County (407,655.69)

Championship: Liberty County (63.94); Peach County (193,159.61)

Westminster at Greater Atlanta Christian

Quarterfinals: Westminster (366,560.71); Greater Atlanta Christian (633,439.29)

Semifinals: Westminster (89,045.24); Greater Atlanta Christian (218,789.85)

Finals: Westminster (27,786.24); Greater Atlanta Christian (92,541.01)

Championship: Westminster (6,443.16); Greater Atlanta Christian (28,556.00)

-- Bottom-right quadrant --

Jenkins at Pike County

Quarterfinals: Jenkins (442,258.76); Pike County (557,741.24)

Semifinals: Jenkins (20,322.31); Pike County (34,979.86)

Finals: Jenkins (862.88); Pike County (1,988.89)

Championship: Jenkins (31.73); Pike County (99.80)

Lovett at Calhoun

Quarterfinals: Lovett (162,057.27); Calhoun (837,942.73)

Semifinals: Lovett (137,662.96); Calhoun (807,034.87)

Finals: Lovett (28,260.53); Calhoun (440,006.76)

Championship: Lovett (4,856.49); Calhoun (198,010.14)

2018 GHSA FOOTBALL STATE PLAYOFFS

SECOND ROUND PAIRINGS

Friday, Nov. 15

CLASS AAAAAAA

R1#2 Lowndes @ R2#1 Westlake

R7#2 Norcross @ R8#1 Grayson

R4#2 Walton @ R3#1 Hillgrove

R6#2 Mill Creek @ R5#1 Milton

At Large Tift County @ R2#3 East Coweta

R8#2 Archer @ R7#1 Parkview

R3#3 McEachern @ R1#1 Colquitt County

R5#2 West Forsyth @ R6#1 North Gwinnett

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AAAAAAA BRACKETS

CLASS AAAAAA

R1#2 Valdosta @ R2#1 Glynn Academy

R6#3 Allatoona @ R8#1 Dacula

R2#4 Bradwell Institute @ R1#3 Northside-Warner Robins

R6#2 Sequoyah @ R5#1 Creekside

R1#4 Coffee @ R2#3 Richmond Hill

R6#4 Harrison @ R8#2 Lanier

R2#2 Effingham County @ R1#1 Lee County

R8#3 Habersham Central @ R6#1 Creekview

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AAAAAA BRACKETS

CLASS AAAAA

R1#2 Bainbridge @ R2#1 Wayne County

R7#2 Kell @ R8#1 Buford

R2#4 New Hampstead @ R4#2 Stockbridge

R8#4 Loganville @ R7#3 Carrollton

R3#2 Griffin @ R4#1 Dutchtown

R8#2 Cedar Shoals @ R7#1 Rome

R2#2 Ware County @ R1#1 Warner Robins

R7#4 East Paulding @ R8#3 Clarke Central

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AAAAA BRACKETS

CLASS AAAA

R4#3 Woodward Academy @ R2#1 Mary Persons

R7#2 Marist @ R8#1 St. Pius

R1#3 Columbus @ R3#1 Baldwin

R6#2 Ridgeland @ R5#1 Cartersville

R3#2 Burke County @ R4#1 Eastside

R8#2 North Oconee @ R7#1 Blessed Trinity

R3#3 Thomson @ R1#1 Cairo

R5#2 Troup @ R6#1 Pickens

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AAAA BRACKETS

CLASS AAA

R4#3 Jackson @ R2#1 Pierce County

R7#2 Dawson County @ R8#1 Monroe Area

R4#2 Westside-Macon @ R3#1 Benedictine

R7#3 North Hall @ R5#1 Cedar Grove

R2#3 Liberty County @ R4#1 Peach County

R5#3 Westminster @ R7#1 Greater Atlanta Christian

R4#4 Pike County @ R3#3 Jenkins

R5#2 Lovett @ R6#1 Calhoun

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AAA BRACKETS

CLASS AA

R1#2 Fitzgerald @ R2#1 Swainsboro

R7#2 Chattooga @ R8#1 Rabun County

R1#3 Thomasville @ R3#1 Dublin

R6#2 Douglass @ R5#1 Heard County

R3#2 Dodge County @ R4#1 Jefferson County

R5#3 Bremen @ R7#1 Rockmart

R3#3 Washington County @ R1#1 Brooks County

R5#2 Callaway @ R6#1 Hapeville Charter

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS AA BRACKETS

Class A-Private

#24 Holy Innocents' @ #8 Calvary Day

#16 Mount Vernon @ #1 Athens Academy

#21 Brookstone @ #5 North Cobb Christian

#13 Wesleyan @ #4 Prince Avenue Christian

#23 Riverside Military @ #7 Fellowship Christian

#18 Hebron Christian @ #2 Savannah Christian

#11 Aquinas @ #6 Darlington

#14 Trinity Christian @ #3 Eagle's Landing Christian

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS A-PRIVATE BRACKETS

Class A-Public

#9 Commerce @ #8 Mitchell County

#16 Miller County @ #1 Irwin County

#12 Chattahoochee County @ #5 Greene County

#13 Emanuel County Institute @ #4 Pelham

#10 Trion @ #7 Schley County

#18 Montgomery County @ #2 Marion County

#11 Chartlon County @ #6 Clinch County

#14 Dooly County @ #3 Mt. Zion

CLICK HERE FOR THE CLASS A-PUBLIC BRACKETS

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