SOKCHO, South Korea, Oct. 24 (Yonhap) -- The United States and North Korea could hold one or two more rounds of working-level nuclear talks ahead of the year-end deadline Pyongyang set for Washington to come up with a new proposal, a Seoul-based think tank said Thursday.
The U.S. will try to maintain the momentum for talks in an effort to keep the North Korea issue under control, especially at a time when it needs visible diplomatic achievement ahead of the 2020 presidential election, the Institute for National Security Strategy affiliated with Seoul's spy agency said.
"The U.S. could offer inducements to the North to make sure that its leader Kim Jong-un does not come up with a message on the new path (that Pyongyang has suggested) during his New Year's address next year," the institute said in a release.
In April, the North's leader warned he would give up on negotiations with the U.S. and take a "new path" unless the U.S. puts forward a new proposal by the end of the year. Kim also said he would wait for the U.S. to make a "courageous" decision.
Kim's recent horseback ride up Mount Paekdu, considered one of the most sacred places in the North, also appears partially aimed at pressuring Washington by spawning speculation a major political or diplomatic decision could be coming, the think tank said.
Yet North Korea is not expected to rush to a "new path" without additional negotiations, worrying that such a move could trigger U.S. President Donald Trump's "unpredictability" while also failing to earn support from China and Russia, it said.
Earlier in the day, a former top North Korean nuclear envoy, Kim Kye-gwan, said he hopes to see the U.S. act "wisely" through the end of the year, signaling Pyongyang's intention to resume the talks.
The two countries held their first meeting in seven months in Stockholm early this month, but the talks broke down again, with the North accusing the U.S. of failing to come up with a new proposal.
On Wednesday, Sweden's special envoy for the Korean Peninsula, Kent Harstedt, said his country will send invitations to the two countries in the coming weeks for another round of nuclear negotiations.
Sweden had invited the two sides to come back to the European country in two weeks and meet again following the breakdown of the talks, but North Korea rejected the offer.
During an era in which strategic gravity is shifting to Asia, the United States cannot be careless in tending to its alliances with Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or
ROK). The three countries face persistent threats from North Korea and from China's semi-transparent bid for regional hegemony. Meanwhile, rocky relations between Tokyo and Seoul are jeopardizing vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The latest disagreement between America's premier allies raises new questions about alliance strategy, commitment, and burden-sharing. These fissures have become exacerbated as the U.S. pressures allies to increase their contributions to regional security and reciprocal trade.
1
Real and perceived disarray among three of the world's top democracies bodes ill for a future order. Now is a poor time to raise doubts about the durability of U.S. alliances in Northeast Asia. Indeed, this is a time when solidarity among like-minded states should lead them to reinforce commitments to a rules-based order and check potential aggression in all its forms. The alliances are not just discrete relationships but part of a post-World War II system that is generally favorable to U.S. interests and values.
2
The Trump administration's vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific is founded on the defense of these partnerships. A free and open region, in turn, requires effective alliances and partnerships. Allies and partners are critical to reinforcing a postwar system that is under siege by revisionist powers.
3 Alliances are still some of the best means to achieve common ends, and they remain a unique advantage not enjoyed by a rising China. The foundation of U.S. regional policy begins with ironclad bilateral alliances in Northeast Asia. As the Defense Department's regional strategy report states, the "U.S.-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific"
4 and the "U.S.-
ROK Alliance is the linchpin of peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia, as well as the Korean Peninsula."
5
While the alliances were once fit for purpose, both security trends and internal frictions suggest that change is needed. Deterring North Korea's nuclear and missile programs requires strength. In addition, China's ambition to be world dominant in critical dual-use technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) puts extra stress on market democracies to remain united. If allies are part of the solution to twenty-first-century security challenges, however, they are also part of the problem. For both America's long-standing and newer partners, emerging threats and challenges have transcended the political will and flow of resources needed to counter them. Although President Donald Trump's strategy documents underscore the value of alliances, the president's political constituents embrace his call for others to bear more costs.
This report seeks to explain why the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-
ROK alliance are still a vital means of achieving overlapping strategic interests. At the same time, it also argues that keeping these alliances fit for purpose requires radical change rather than business as usual. Both a rapidly changing security environment and growing intra-alliance squabbling pose dangers that require U.S. leadership. This report concludes with specific ideas for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in the coming months and years, without trying to achieve too much too quickly.
3. FM says 'US asks too much in defense cost-sharing' (ROK/US Alliance)
Excerpts:
"It is not proper for us to judge whether the U.S. position is logical or illogical, but the 11th SMA will be a tough negotiation," Kang said. "We will analyze and evaluate the results of the discussion to bridge the gap between the two."
Washington has reportedly asked Seoul to increase its payment to around $5 billion (5.86 trillion won) for next year, citing multiple reasons, such as the joint military exercises and the deployment of strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula, according to reports.
The foreign minister declined to comment on details over the negotiation, only reiterating the government's general position that it would renew the contract on the basis of fairness.
FM says 'US asks too much in defense cost-sharing'
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha speaks during a press conference at the headquarters of the ministry in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap
By Lee Min-hyung
The United States is making a "far more excessive" level of demands in the ongoing defense cost-sharing talks with South Korea, Seoul's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said Thursday.
"It is true that the U.S. is making a much higher level of demands than before, so preparing a pan-governmental strategy is crucial for the allies to narrow their differences on the issue," she told reporters in a regular press conference at the ministry's headquarters in downtown Seoul.
This is the first time a high-level government official confirmed that Washington was asking South Korea to sharply increase its share of the costs for housing 28,500 U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops here. Some South Korean anti-American students broke into the residence of the U.S. ambassador to South Korea in Seoul last week in protest of Washington's demands for South Korea to pay hugely.
For two days from Thursday (KST), delegations from Seoul and Washington kicked off their second round of talks on the 11th Special Measures Agreement to determine the level of cost-sharing for 2020. The current contract is due to expire Dec. 31.
"It is not proper for us to judge whether the U.S. position is logical or illogical, but the 11th SMA will be a tough negotiation," Kang said. "We will analyze and evaluate the results of the discussion to bridge the gap between the two."
Washington has reportedly asked Seoul to increase its payment to around $5 billion (5.86 trillion won) for next year, citing multiple reasons, such as the joint military exercises and the deployment of strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula, according to reports.
The foreign minister declined to comment on details over the negotiation, only reiterating the government's general position that it would renew the contract on the basis of fairness.
"Our basic position is that the 11th SMA should also be carried out under a similar context of the previous SMAs. We will make a fair and equitable agreement on cost-sharing with the United States," she said.
The two sides missed last year's deadline but agreed in February this year on a stopgap plan that required South Korea to pay 1.04 trillion won, up 8.2 percent from a year ago. Jeong Eun-bo leads the South Korean team in the talks with his U.S. counterpart, James DeHart.
During the press conference, Kang also acknowledged that the outlook for inter-Korean relations remains uncertain in the foreseeable future, especially after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent order to remove all South Korean facilities in the North's Mount Geumgang resort.
"The foreign ministry needs to analyze Kim's remarks in more detail, but the decision is seen as part of the North's expression of frustration and disappointment over the suspension of the inter-Korean tour program to the mountain," Kang said. "We are going to make thorough preparations for how Kim's decision will affect South Korean nationals' property rights, there."
But Kang remained hopeful the inter-Korean dialogue will proceed in line with international consensus.
"We pushed for the inter-Korean dialogue in the framework of the international sanctions on the North," she said. "We cannot manage the framework of the sanctions on our own, as it requires a collective opinion from the international society. To drive the consensus from the global community, the North's forward-looking measures for denuclearization are crucial."
4. S. Korea, Japan agree to mend frayed ties
I hope they move forward on this and soon. But there are skeptics:
Some critics here said it was unlikely for a Moon-Abe summit to take place in the near future as Abe has reiterated that Seoul needs to keep its promises for relations to improve.
"The two are not ready to resolve the pending issues," said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute in Seoul.
"The two countries had talks and reaffirmed in principle that they have different stances," added Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.
Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, left, shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before their summit in the latter's official residence in Toyko, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
By Park Ji-won
TOKYO - Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon and Japanese Prime Minister concurred Thursday on the need for Seoul and Tokyo to improve their deteriorated relations. During a meeting at Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Thursday, the two agreed to continue dialogue in order to prevent bilateral relations from worsening. But they failed to reach an agreement on specific issues including wartime forced labor during the Japanese occupation of Korea.
A senior South Korean government official said that as Abe has expressed his willingness to improve relations via open dialogue, there is the possibility of a summit between him and President Moon Jae-in on the sidelines of next month's APEC gathering in Chile.
"We don't want to rule out the possibility of President Moon having a summit with Abe next month. Before this can happen, however, there are lots of issues to be addressed and touched upon," the official said.
The Foreign Ministry had been seeking to arrange a summit at September's United Nations General Assembly in New York, but this was scrapped after Seoul and Tokyo failed to narrow their differences over the pending issues.
Some critics here said it was unlikely for a Moon-Abe summit to take place in the near future as Abe has reiterated that Seoul needs to keep its promises for relations to improve.
"The two are not ready to resolve the pending issues," said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute in Seoul.
"The two countries had talks and reaffirmed in principle that they have different stances," added Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.
Prime Minister Lee told Abe that South Korea doesn't have any plan to abrogate a 1965 agreement to settle property claims mostly stemming from wartime grievances.
"During the meeting, Lee told the prime minister that South Korea will not ignore the 1965 agreement between the neighboring countries. Abe responded by saying the state-level agreement must be kept," Vice Foreign Minister Cho Sei-young told reporters in a briefing after Lee and Abe's encounter in Tokyo.
Lee delivered President Moon's "personal handwritten message" to Abe, who told him that Japan will keep talking with South Korea," Cho said.
Tokyo has protested over last year's South Korean Supreme Court rulings ordering Japanese companies to compensate surviving South Korean victims who were forced to work for them during World War II. Abe said the ruling was a violation of the 1965 treaty that normalized diplomatic ties.
South Korea said the treaty didn't cover all individual claims adding the ruling was a result of judicial independence. Claiming South Korea was aiming to rewrite the past, Abe decided to remove the country from Japan's list of most trusted business partners. In response, Seoul terminated a military intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo.
"We can't unveil the entire contents of President Moon's message to Abe. But the letter included the South Korean leader's hopes to improve bilateral relations," Cho said, adding Abe thanked Lee for delivering Moon's message.
Expectations were growing that Lee's attendance at the coronation event of Japanese Emperor Naruhito would lay "some groundwork" to address the ongoing bilateral dispute.
Lee returned home Thursday after wrapping up his three-day trip to Tokyo, and will report the specifics of his meeting with Abe to President Moon.
5.Korea May Be Forced to Use Unconventional Stimulus For Economy Hit by Trade War
The Bank of Korea (BOK) headquarters in Seoul, South Korea.
Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
Photographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
With its interest rates back at an all-time low, speculation is mounting that the Bank of Korea may be forced to join other central banks in using unconventional tools to stimulate one of the hardest-hit economies in the trade war.
While Governor Lee Ju-yeol said last week it was too early to consider unconventional steps, he also acknowledged that the BOK was constantly reviewing and updating its "contingency plans" and studying actions previously taken by other nations should it run out of room to lower interest rates.
"When the down cycle comes and monetary stimulus comes to the rescue, Korea is no exception," said Tao Dong, managing director of Credit Suisse Private Banking Asia-Pacific.
Even as Lee seemed to play down near-term prospects for quantitative easing after last week's board meeting where the key rate was cut to 1.25%, economists have been busy game planning how unconventional policy could play out in Korea. Potential measures, according to more than a dozen analysts reached for this story, could include relatively easy-to-implement ones like bond purchases, cheap funding and forward guidance to more controversial ones like stock purchases, negative interest rates and mortgage support.
Lee Ju-yeol
Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
Asset Purchases
South Korea's
law already provides a broad remit for the BOK to buy stocks and bonds as part of its monetary policy, while leaving out a mention of the maturity of bonds that can be traded. During the global financial crisis in 2008, the BOK purchased 1 trillion won ($850 million) of three to 10-year government bonds and extended low-interest loans to companies via commercial banks.
"It may not be reluctant to adopt similar measures in the event of future economic shocks," said Tieying Ma, an economist with DBS Bank, expecting the BOK to hold off from such steps until its benchmark interest rate is 1% or lower.
Asked about the BOK's so-called
effective lower bound, most economists said the board would probably lower its rate to somewhere between 0.5% and 1% before opting for unconventional measures.
Analysts are split on the BOK's next step after last week's reduction, with some seeing a hold throughout 2020, and others seeing a cut to 1% or 0.75%.
Adopting forward guidance, such as an assurance that rates would stay low, is something the BOK could consider because it doesn't hurt its policy room, even though its effectiveness remains disputed, according to Shin Kwan-ho, an economics professor at Korea University in Seoul.
With the country's economic growth engine sputtering and exports falling for 10 months in a row through September, offering direct funds to companies and buying equities could be another option.
"Given the large size of the Korean stock market, equity purchases would also be another plausible avenue to get liquidity to firms," said Lloyd Chan, an economist with Oxford Economics. "Corporate bond purchases might not be as effective, given that the corporate bond market is relatively smaller in size."
Bubble Concern
Almost every economist warned against fueling a property bubble with household debt at a record level -- something the BOK had on its mind when it raised its interest rates to 1.75% from 1.5% in November last year.
Back in 2016, then-President Park Geun-hye's party took a different approach to address the housing debt problem, asking the BOK to consider buying mortgage-backed securities and calling on it to look into buying state-bank bonds to facilitate corporate restructuring. While the economy expanded 2.9% that year, it's forecast by economists to expand 1.9% this year -- the slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
"Similar conditions exist now, with high household debt and signs that consumer spending is losing momentum," said Alex Holmes, an economist with Capital Economics. "Lower mortgage rates could encourage households to take on more debt, causing larger problems down the line."
In the near term, additional fiscal policy support may be more likely than unorthodox policies from the BOK. President Moon Jae-in said Monday that fiscal policy should play a "bold role more than ever," after global finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Washington over the weekend to drive home the idea of combining government spending with monetary policy and structural reforms to generate growth.
"No one would pick a fight with the BOK for taking unconventional measures if the rate went to as low as 0.5%," said Oh Suk-tae, an economist for SG Securities in Seoul, a unit of Societe Generale SA. "Central banks in advanced nations have blazed the trail, and the BOK will have no shortage of ideas. The question is, will it work?"
- With assistance by Tomoko Sato, and Jaehyun Eom
6. Elderly North Koreans increasingly turn to begging to survive
Elderly North Koreans increasingly turn to begging to survive - DailyNK
The number of North Korean elderly who wander around looking for food and begging is on the rise, Daily NK has learned.
North Korean senior citizens who have no children to rely on in a difficult economic situation are roaming around begging, Daily NK sources explained on Tuesday.
"There are many elderly beggars," a Pyongyang-based source told Daily NK. "Most of them have homes, but they have nothing to eat at home, and no children to bring them rice, so they literally will forage for food in the wild."
"Even if they have homes, beggars are beggars, and everyone in the village knows that they are poor," continued the source. "At the same time, they are not dusty or dirty. They look elderly and thin, but clean overall."
There are also an increasing number of such elderly beggars who come into Pyongyang from other regions, Daily NK sources said. These beggars sneak into Pyongyang, taking a detour to avoid the "No. 10 checkpoints" (Ministry of State Security checkpoints). These checkpoints are at various entrances to Pyongyang as well as at the entrances to every major city in North Korea.
"Admitting that there are beggars in Pyongyang is a source of shame for local neighborhoods, which is why people try to keep quiet about it. It's a lie, though, to say that Pyongyang doesn't have beggars," one of the sources said. "The beggars from the provinces sneak around the No. 10 checkpoints to come into Pyongyang, and because people here aren't hardhearted, they will give them bread if nothing else. Beggars who come into Pyongyang and have a taste of life there will never go back."
These itinerant beggars gather where there are lots of people or at factories during working times. When people are done eating they will toss the leftovers to the elderly beggars, who will line up as though at a food distribution center, according to the source.
"For example, when families and friends gather and cook meat on a metal sheet over a gas stove, and there's some left, the beggar will come and snap it right up," said the source.
At the same time, North Korean state authorities have reportedly grown more lax about regulating beggars, young and old. Not only is it costly to round up beggars and send them back to the provinces to detention centers, the beggars have only been known to escape, rendering most attempts at regulation ineffective, explained Daily NK sources.
"Police officers will sometimes take these beggars away, but even after they do that, they'll let them go after a certain period of time," one Daily NK source said. "If the officers want to send them back to the provinces, they have to be responsible for getting fuel for their cars, so these days they just leave them alone."
*Translated by Violet Kim
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to [email protected].
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha speaks during a press conference at the headquarters of the ministry in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap
Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, left, shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before their summit in the latter's official residence in Toyko, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
