The 'intentions to plant' data provided tentative evidence that South Africa could have another good production season, which might keep the country's grain supplies in good shape at least until 2020. This is under the assumption that the expected El Niño, which we cautioned about in our previous notes, could be fairly weak and potentially occur later in the summer season as some forecasters already suggest. Figures released this afternoon by the national Crop Estimate Committee shows that South African farmers intend to increase the area planting for summer grain and oilseed by 5 percent from 2017/18 season to 4.03 million hectares. Most summer crops showed an uptick, with the exception of sunflower seed and groundnuts. This is partly driven by the favourable agricultural commodity prices. Click here for Wandile Sihlobo's article.

South Africa's food and non-alcoholic beverages price inflation accelerated to 3.9% y/y in September 2018, from 3.5% y/y in the previous month. This is the highest rate in five months. The uptick was not widespread across the food basket, the key drivers were mainly milk, eggs and cheese; vegetables, non-alcoholic beverages; oils and fats as well as fish. Meanwhile, meat price inflation decelerated from levels seen the previous month, with bread and cereals; fruit; and sugar, sweets and desserts still in deflation, albeit slowly pulling back due to recent increases in raw commodity prices.  Wandile Sihlobo provides more insight in the  linked article.