All of the ACF is drought-free according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 08/07/2018).
Percent of Normal Precipitation Over the Past 90 Days
Well-above normal rainfall departures throughout the ACF basin. Portions of the middle and lower ACF with departures 12-16 inches from normal.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the probability of precipitation in the ACF basin is equal for above, normal, and below normal precipitation from August to October.
Realtime Streamflow
Realtime streamflows across the ACF basin are mostly in the much-above normal range.
(http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Flint River at Albany Streamflow
Streamflow for the Flint River at Albany and Bainbridge is currently in the normal range, with much-above normal range at Griffin and Carsonville. The Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee is at the normal range. The Chattahoochee River at Columbus, Atlanta, and Whitesburg are at the above normal to much-above normal range.
Groundwater conditions are mostly in the above normal range for the lower ACF Basin. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).
One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center predicts above-normal flows for the Chattahoochee River and the Flint River.
Lake Lanier Water Level
Lake Lanier level is currently above the top of the conservation line. The forecast indicate levels are likely to maintain above this line for the next two weeks.
ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage
The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 (normal operations throughout the basin) and is predicted to maintain normal conditions (orange line) over the next few weeks.
ACF 28-Day Crop Moisture Stress Update
The GRIDSSAT- Crop Model Update: t
he 28-Day Cumulative Crop Moisture Stress results show no long-term crop stress in the ACF.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
*The entire ACF Basin is drought-free
* The 14-day, 30-day, and 90 day rainfall totals are generally above to much above normal
* The 7-day forecast shows a little rainfall for the middle and lower ACF, with greater rainfall amounts forecasted for northern Alabama and Georgia.
*Neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, forecast for late summer/fall increasingly favors El
Niño. (weak to moderate in strength)
*Current ocean and atmosphere conditions not as favorable overallfor El Niño.
*Climate Prediction Center official forecast (August-October) favors warmer than normal temperature and equal chances for precipitation.
*With neutral or possible El Niño forecast and cool SST's, the season's hurricane forecast is normal to below normal.
*Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the low to much above normal range.
*28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the much above normal range.
*28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in above normal range.
*28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in much above normal to normal range.
*Groundwater levels range from much below normal to above normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 month streamflow forecasts above-normal flows for the Chattahoochee River, Flint River, and the Apalachicola River.
*The 3 month streamflow forecasts favor abov to near normal flows throughout the ACF.
*
Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
*Recent rains have caused Lake Lanier to rise above guide curve.
*West Point is just below guide curve.
*Walter F. George is below guide curve.
*Continuing to meet downstream flow requirements.
*The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
*The Lawn & Garden index show no mid-to-long term water/plant stress in the ACF Basin.
*The growing season for early crops is near complete and there is little stress in the ACF basin.
*Long-term statistics show spotty areas where crop yield is below normal.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankorn, USGS
Todd Hamill, SERFC
Cameron Handyside, UAH
Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
