Everybody always asks, “How’s the market?” Because Manhattan is segmented into so many micro-markets, a Tribeca loft versus a midtown high-rise condo versus an Upper West Side townhouse or an Upper East Side studio etc….this question is too vague and has a multiplicity of answers. Generally though, the market’s on fire; demand is outpacing supply. Sellers have become more realistic, which has become an invitation for buyers to join the party. Buyers too have realized there is middle ground; that 50% off sale they anticipated never happened. This engagement between both parties is infectious and has resulted in deals….many deals. Deal volume in February was up over 30% as compared to February 2020 (which if you remember was a pre-covid volume). Activity has been most robust in the lower price points; 70+% of all deals are occurring below $2M and 85% below $3M. The luxury market, loosely defined as the top 5% of all inventory (approx. $5M and up), which had been sluggish, is catching up. We are seeing numbers which reflect far busier times like in 2015 & 2016. 

Courtesy UrbanDigs

Whereas it is still a buyers’ market, the pendulum has shifted direction. The reason has not started with, and/or will end with, interest rates*, but they will become an increasingly important component to this buying equation. Like never before, virtually every metric is in the buyer’s favor.

One of my industry colleagues, a head of one of the major firms, said, “If you're not a buyer in THIS market, you are simply not a buyer.”

Let’s compare where we are now to some of the other great historical buying opportunities during that time. Note: if you are not a buyer, please disregard what I have to say, as I am not pressuring you to buy; however, for those who do want to buy, you will find this interesting.

These great buying opportunities most often follow catastrophic events. Let’s take the 4-5 months post-Sept 11^th and the 12 months following the collapse of Lehman Bros. in 2008/9.

Courtesy: Wells Fargo

For buyers today, not only is inventory ample (meaning choices), sentiment on the seller’s side has been poor (meaning negotiability) and interest rates are near all-time lows, 3% or less for a 30 year jumbo loan. However, the pendulum on virtually all three of these metrics is starting to change course. Although there is 10% more overall inventory than last year at this time, that number is contracting. Again, not because apartments aren’t coming on the market, but because deal volume is outpacing that incoming supply; it’s essentially musical chairs for Manhattan apartments. While prices have not yet increased, it is precisely this deal activity which is beginning to give sellers a bit more resolve (meaning they are becoming less and less negotiable). And the big one is interest rates; they are slowly rising. This factor will affect the whole marketplace, as it reduces purchasing power. So if you are a buyer, the getting is still good...very good…and in your favor, but it is slipping away. You might have missed the absolute bottom, but you can feel confident that you bought in a “buyer’s market”, which never lasts long in Manhattan.

For sellers, things are looking up as well. All of this activity is good for you, but you have to price right and get it done. As the chart below shows, time on the market erodes value. You will capture and maximize your value if you get in and you get out in short order. Even now, our market is extremely efficient. The buyers who have the proper guidance are more educated than ever and know value when they see it. The saying that overpriced properties help sell other peoples apartments could not be more true. Remember too that interest rates affect sellers as well; if a buyer has less purchasing power, they have less to offer. So sellers may need to consider their timing as well, as interest rates will inevitably rise in the future.

Please join me on Thursday’s at 4pm EST as I co-host a weekly zoom program called “Boroughs & Burbs” with my colleague John Engel. We talk about innumerable real estate issues and topics in New York and its suburbs which include CT, The Hamptons, NJ…we’ve recently even tapped into to see what’s been going on in Palm Beach, Miami and L.A.

Thursday's from 4-5pm Click here to join us

Click here to see our recent show with Louise Phillips Forbes & Daniella Schlisser

and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.

Last Week in Research (Greg Heym - Chief Economist for Brown Harris Stevens)

Manhattan luxury market has best month in six years (TRD)

Hamptons Sellers Should Ride the Buyer Wave Before it Breaks (Mansion Global)

Mortgage Rates Tick Up Again (TRD)

Window of SUPER cheap mortgage rates could be slipping (CNBC)

Manhattan saw more apartment sales last month than any January since 2014 (NYPost)

Study says, Could Manhattan Studio Dip be Investment Opportunity (Brick Underground)

Manhattan’s Luxury Market Has Busiest Week in Five Years (Mansion Global)

De Blasio to revive property tax reform (TRD)

Manhattan and Brooklyn renters sign leases in record numbers (TRD)

Manhattan Home Sales Revive as Lower Prices Lure Buyers (WSJ)

JUST REALEASED - Knight Frank's Annual Wealth Report

Click here to read key findings from Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s Global Head of Research, as he journeys through The Wealth Report 2021 to offer his top takeaways.

In the middle of a global pandemic and the related economic crisis, why should we be interested in the wealthy? Simply put, if we are to understand market and asset performance then they form a central part of the story. Read more.

Click the button above to see the latest edition of our post-lockdown deals report, as of 3/2/21. The purpose of the report is to give you verified pricing data on deals negotiated after the NYS lockdown began on March 22nd. This is not meant to be a count of deals signed since the lockdown, as many of those haven’t closed yet.

To be included, a sale must meet all the following criteria:

1)     Listed through the RLS, by all firms.

2)     Have a contract signed after March 22, 2020

3)     Closed and recorded on ACRIS

The spreadsheet, accessible through the above link, is a running total we add to each week. Keep in mind some sales may drop off if we find out the contract signed date was incorrect. Be sure to click on the respective tabs for each borough at the bottom of the document.

Below is a comparison of the data in this report to the same period last year:

With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.

For Additional Neighborhood Blogs click here.

The Latest Market Reports - Sales: 

Manhattan's 4th Quarter (2020): click here

Brooklyn's 4th Quarter (2020): click here

Hamptons' & North Fork Year End (2020): click here

Connecticut Year End (2020): click here

Townhouse Report: 2nd Half 2019: click here

February Inventory Report: click here 

Last Week in Research: click here 

(courtesy NY Times) click here

Miami's 4th Quarter: click here

Palm Beach's 4th Quarter: click here

Mostafa Derkaoui’s

About Some Meaningless Events is an audacious blend of drama, documentary, and improvisation, thriving in this ambiguous space (heightened by a free jazz score performed by a Polish band) to stage open-ended questions spurred by the burning social imagination of a new generation. The film-within-a-film, which both documents and results from an astonishing collective moment explored by Essafi, is an ultimate act of collaboration—embodying radical ideas about art, politics, and social relations that animated journals like Souffles-Anfas—and was funded by the sale of artwork by painter Mohamed Melehi and others. Censored after a single screening in 1975 in Paris and banned from import, it is thanks to the restoration efforts of Filmoteca de Catalunya and scholar Léa Morin that Derkaoui’s film meets its audience five decades on, its resolve and fearless experimentation shining brightly as ever. Read more here

Screening March 18–31, 2021 @themuseumofmodernart

Dozens of new restaurants have opened in recent months, a remarkable change from earlier during the pandemic when many businesses pushed back their launches indefinitely. As New York City settles into this new reality, Eater is highlighting new restaurants in Manhattan — and a few old favorites — offering a mix of outdoor seating, indoor dining, delivery, and takeout, that have opened in the last few months.

New to the list in February: Dhamaka (a long-awaited Indian restaurant debut from hitmaking duo Chintan Pandya and Roni Mazumdar of Adda and Rahi), Native Noodles (a popular Singaporean food stall at Queens Night Market that just opened a permanent location in Washington Heights), and Dagon (a Mediterranean and Middle Eastern spot on the Upper West Side). This list will be updated weekly.

With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.

With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.