"The difference between fiction and reality?
Fiction has to make sense."
Tom Clancy
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When we look at the stars, for example Proxima Centauri, the closest star to Earth, what we see is not what exists today but what existed more than four years ago. That's about how long it takes for the star's light to reach Earth.
This latency, the lag time between when light leaves a star and when it reaches our eyes, is the same thing that makes understanding what's happening with the coronavirus so difficult. There's a delay between today's pandemic data and the reality of how many people are now actually infected with the virus. This lag also makes it tough to know with any certainty if the pandemic will actually end by autumn because of the rollout of vaccinations (as some experts predict).
COVID-19 case and test data are a window, but not to the future. They're a window to the recent past, just like a star's light. Here's why. Typically, patients don't develop their first COVID-19 symptom until four or five days after they become infected. Add another day or two to get tested. Then add another day for the lab to run the test and then several more for the lab to report the results to the state. Finally, add a few more days for the state to publish the data. That means that today's data reflect the reality from nearly two weeks ago.
The latency doesn't apply only to bad news, however. And lately, the news has been pretty good. In the past week, the average number of new cases per day has been falling in many states. Hospitalizations, a better measure of spread since not everyone who's infected becomes symptomatic, are also falling in much of the country. In addition, the speed of vaccinations is increasing. As of late last week, more than 35 million vaccinations were administered in the US, averaging 1.3 million shots per day. In New Mexico, the rate of vaccination (people who've received at least one dose) is close to 14% with three percent of the population fully vaccinated. Keep in mind these aren't real time data points, they're the recent past.
Tempering the positive news, the more transmissible B117 strain of the virus (that's the UK variant) is becoming more prevalent in the US. Early evidence suggests that it impacts young people and women more than the dominant strains do. Kristian Andersen, an immunology professor at Scripps Research, believes the variant will eventually dominate the US. “It’s not an if, it’s a when.” And so, the race is on to get enough people vaccinated. With sufficient herd immunity other, potentially more virulent, strains of the virus can't take hold. As Professor Andersen observed, “The virus is moving faster than the vaccines right now.”
Still, it's not all doom and gloom. Within six weeks, regardless of what Punxsutawney Phil predicts, the weather will improve across much of the country. We'll be able to gather outside again, lessening the temptation of riskier indoor gatherings. With days getting longer, more of the sun’s virus-killing Ultraviolet rays will reach the Earth’s surface. And, most importantly, more and more people will be vaccinated, depriving the virus of susceptible hosts.
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Keeping track of all of the vaccines that are being developed or are in use around the world can be a full-time job and it seems to be turning some of us into amateur scientists.
Johnson & Johnson's vaccine will likely receive emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration later this this month, meaning there will be three vaccines approved for use in the US. The single-dose vaccine is 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe disease, according to a global study. And, because it requires only a single dose and is more easily stored than either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, it will likely become the vaccine of choice for more rural parts of the country.
Confidence in the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca vaccine seems to be growing. New analysis released last week suggests that not only does the vaccine protect against symptomatic COVID-19 infections, it could also significantly curb transmission. The vaccine has been approved in Britain, India, and Europe, as well as other countries. But the company has not yet submitted its application for use in this country, as the vaccine is still undergoing late-stage trials.
Finally, Novavax’s vaccine achieved 89.3% efficacy in a Phase 3 clinical trial that used subjects exposed to the B117 variant. However, the vaccine performed far worse in a smaller trial that tested it against the South Africa variant.
The federal government is also working to expand the vaccine supply, increasing its weekly distribution to states and tribes while working to secure more doses from manufacturers. Additionally, private retail pharmacies will begin receiving limited vaccine allotments later this week in an effort to expand outreach to priority groups. Vaccinations will continue to be available at no cost. The CDC worked with states to select initial pharmacy partners based on a number of factors including the pharmacies' ability to reach some of the populations most at risk.
If the vaccine rollout seems chaotic and confusing, though, that's because it is. David Leonhardt of The New York Times writes, "A common problem seems to be a focus on process rather than on getting shots into arms. Some leaders are effectively sacrificing efficiency for what they consider to be equity. Some states have also created intricate rules about who qualifies for a vaccine and then made a big effort to keep anybody else from getting a shot."
Even with all the messiness around getting vaccines into people, we're certainly on our way to bringing the pandemic to an end. But we're not there yet. And it's during this "in-between time" that remaining vigilant seems so tough. It's especially tough for folks who are anxious to be vaccinated but who must still wait. Remember, if you've been vaccinated, you still need to wear a face mask, keep your distance from others, avoid large gatherings, and wash your hands. We still need to protect each other.
Thank you for all that you're doing to stay safe and healthy.
I am forever grateful for all that you do.
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Thank you for your vigilance. We want you to stay safe,
healthy, and informed.
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If you have already received your first COVID-19 vaccination,
you will be contacted directly with the date and time
for your second vaccination. You do not
need to register to receive your second dose.
Simply follow the directions you receive from the Department of Health.
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Tips for Registering for Vaccination
To Register:
Everyone who wants to receive the COVID-19 vaccination needs to register with the Department of Health through their vaccine registration portal.
Once your registration is complete and you hit SUBMIT, you'll receive a text and/or email with a seven-digit confirmation code. Remember this code. You will need it to log in to your registration and to register for any vaccination events.
To Be Vaccinated:
If Kitchen Angels learns of vaccination events, we will make every effort to notify volunteers. But please don't rely on us as your only source of vaccination event information. As more healthcare providers and pharmacies begin offering vaccinations, and as the state expands the priority groups eligible for vaccination, notices will be sent out through the state's vaccine registration portal.
Each vaccination event is given a unique EVENT CODE which is required to sign up for a vaccination. Once you have an event code, log into your registration and click on Schedule your Appointment. You will be asked to enter the event code, then click the blue Find Event button. Select the location and the time you prefer based on what's available.
Vaccination events fill up quickly. You may get a red message Event Full. Don't despair. Some people cancel their registrations at the last minute and, if inventory allows, the state may make more doses available for a specific event, opening additional slots for scheduling. Keep checking, even up to the day of the scheduled event.
The Health Department will also send texts if they determine that a particular event has unused vaccine doses (typically because someone failed to show up for their appointment). This is a last minute, first-come-first-served opportunity, however. Reply to the text and you may be able to secure an immediate appointment. Be prepared to get to the site as quickly as possible.
Day of the Event:
On the day of your scheduled vaccination, you will need to fill out a Medical Questionnaire, which you will find when you log into your account through the vaccine registration portal. The questionnaire can only be completed on the day of, and must be completed prior to, your vaccination.
Dress appropriately for the weather as you may need to stand outside in line, depending on the location of the event. Wheelchairs and other assistance will likely be available. You'll have to ask at the time of the event, however.
Bring your seven-digit confirmation code. If you forget it, staff can still look you up by name but it takes a bit longer. You will be given a vaccination card that lists the vaccine manufacturer and lot number of the vaccine you will receive, and your date of vaccination. It also includes the date for your second vaccination. Keep the card in a safe place. As a precaution, take a photo of both the front and back of the card and keep it on your cell phone.
After you've received your vaccination, you'll be asked to wait at least 15 minutes to make sure you don't experience any allergic reaction to the vaccine. Thus far, there have been only a few instances of allergic reactions.
Staff and volunteers have reported very mild symptoms associated with the vaccination including soreness at the injection site or generally in the arm, some fatigue, body aches/chills, and headache during the first 24 hours. These symptoms are the vaccine teaching your body to prepare for the possibility of infection. They are not COVID.
If you have questions, email Lauren. She will answer emails as quickly as she can.
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Keep Us Informed!
Kitchen Angels is operating with far fewer volunteers than we have in the past. In addition, the number of clients we're serving has increased dramatically. That's why it's important to let Lauren know about any plans you have that will require you to be away from Kitchen Angels.
The sooner you let her know, the easier it will be to ensure we have no holes in coverage.
We will continue to make case-by-case determinations for how long volunteers need to quarantine after traveling or hosting or getting together with others. For New Mexico Department of Health information on the risk status of other states click here.
If you're not sure about how to answer one of the items on the assessment, check with Lauren. We'd rather you refrain from volunteering than risk infecting staff, other volunteers, or clients.
No one is safe or immune from contracting the virus.
If you need to self-quarantine, please do! It's not just Kitchen Angels that may be at risk but your friends, colleagues and others.
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Before you return to Kitchen Angels,
take a moment and ask yourself . . .
- Am I able to work a full shift wearing a face mask?
- Can I hear well enough from six feet away if the other person is speaking through a face mask?
- Am I willing to work a different shift than the one I previously worked?
- Can I commit to showing up to my shift on-time and without canceling at the last minute?
- Can I adapt to a new environment and new routine?
- Can I reliably communicate with the Volunteer Coordinator?
- Do I feel safe being back in the public sphere?
- Can I maintain appropriate risk-mitigating practices when I'm not at Kitchen Angels?
If you answer "NO" to any of these questions, you're not ready to return. If you're not sure, check with Lauren.
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