Approximately 80% of the ACF Basin is in D0 (Abnormally Dry) with an additional 6.5% of the ACF Basin in D1 (Moderate Drought) in southeast Alabama and a few counties of southwest Georgia according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 4/2/2019).
Rainfall Totals Over the Past 30 Days
Rainfall totals the past 30 days throughout the ACF basin range from 1 - 6 inches.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook - Precipitation
According to the most recent NOAA 3-Month Precipitation Probability Outlook, the CPC Seasonal Forecast (April - June) favors higher chances for above normal rainfall.
Real-Time Stream Flow
Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently, predominately in the normal range with some above normal range flows. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Flint River at Bainbridge - 28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.
Downstream on the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta and Whitesburg 28-day average flows are in the much above normal range with average flows even further downstream on the Chattahoochee River near West Point and Columbus in the normal range.
28-day average flows of the Flint River near Griffin is much below normal. Further downstream near Carsonville and Albany 28-day average flows are below normal. Lastly, 28-day average flow near Bainbridge is in the normal range.
28-day average flow for the Apalachicola River is currently in the normal range.
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) predicts above normal flows for the Chattahoochee River and near normal for the Apalachicola River and the Flint River. The 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecast from the SERFC predicts above normal flows for the upper Chattahoochee, near normal flows for the Middle Chattahoochee, and near normal flows for the Flint and the Apalachicola.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
(as of 4/8/2019)
All USACE ACF basin projects are currently above the guide curve. The evacuating of water from the flood pool at Buford continues. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
*All projects have begun fish spawn season
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
ACF Basin Precipitation and Climate Conditions and Outlooks
*Abnormally dry (D0) introduced across middle and lower ACF, moderate drought (D1) over South Alabama and western FL Panhandle
*Good coverage of 1-2 inches in the last week, more near the coast
*Middle and lower ACF with 4-6 inch deficits over last 90 days, sharp gradient to above normal near the headwaters
*7-day forecast indicates heavy rainfall of 3+ inches across north Alabama and NW Georgia, lesser amounts over middle and lower basin
*El Nino conditions still entrenched - 80% likelihood through spring; 50% through summer and into fall
*CPC seasonal forecast (April - June) favors higher chances for warm temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall
*El Nino loses much of its influence on weather patterns in late spring/summer
State of Alabama Input
The next meeting of the Alabama Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) is April 16, 2019 at 1 pm CST.
ACF Basin Streamflow and Groundwater Level Conditions
Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to above normal range.
28-day average streamflows at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia and the Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.
28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in the normal to much above normal range
28-day average streamflows for the Flint River are currently in the below normal range.
28-day average streamflows for the Apalachicola River are currently in the normal range.
Groundwater levels range from normal to above normal across the ACF basin.
ACF Basin Streamflow Forecasts
The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1-Month Streamflow Forecasts predict above normal flows for the Chattahoochee River and near normal flows for the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers.
The Southeast River Forecast Center's 3-Month Streamflow Forecasts predict above normal flows for the Upper Chattahoochee River and near normal flows for the Middle Chattahoochee, Apalachicola, and Flint Rivers.
*Note: stream flow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC, or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
All projects are currently above guide curve.
Evacuating the flood pool at Buford to prepare for the next event.
The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
All projects have begun fish spawn season.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
David Zierden, FSU
Tony Gotvald, USGS
Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC
Cynthia Donald, USACE
Tom Littlepage, ADECA - OWR
Summary prepared by Rachel McGuire, Auburn University
