Last week's market update incorrectly displayed "sales price" when presenting data from new pending sales, instead of "list price". Here is the second week of data as I keep an eye on changes in the real estate market as a result of the novel coronavirus. Here is what we see using data from single family homes in Hamilton County:
- New pending sales have flattened for the past two week at just over 200 new pending sales. This is down about 30% for a typical week long period in March.
- The list price of the new pending sales is trending lower. This doesn't necessary mean that prices are declining; it probably means that the under $300k market is moving better than the over $300k market in this new environment.
- Active inventory has been flat at around 1000 single family homes from January through to today.
- We will need to wait at least 3-4 weeks for transactions to close to see impact on sales price.
As long as approximately 200 new pending sales are taking place each week and active inventory stays around 1000 single family homes in Hamilton County, I expect prices to stay relatively steady. That ratio indicates that 5 weeks of sales activity would consume active inventory; that would still be a strong seller's market. However, if inventory grows beyond 1000 active listings and new pending sales decline below 200 per week, my assessment will change. It's important to note that the list price data suggests that the impact may vary depending upon the price point.
