Portfolio Advisory Council, LLC presents:
 

 

THE WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

October 12, 2020 

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks staged a powerful rally last week, riding a wave of optimism over the prospect of the passage of a new fiscal stimulus bill.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.27%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 increased 3.84%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 4.56% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.23%.1-3

Stimulus Stalemate?

The anticipation of lawmakers passing a new round of economic stimulus was a decisive driver of market action all week.

A mid-week tweet by President Trump announcing that he was ending stimulus negotiations sent stocks lower. Losses were exacerbated by sharp declines in some mega-cap technology companies as details emerged from a House Judiciary subcommittee report on its investigation into their competitive practices.4


Stocks quickly reversed direction, climbing after the President tweeted that he would sign a limited stimulus bill, but lawmakers appeared to reject a piecemeal approach.
Stocks consolidated on Friday, helped by continuing stimulus talks and new election polls that suggested that the risk of a contested outcome appeared to be fading. 

Small Cap Rally

The outperformance of large cap stocks relative to small cap stocks has been both wide and persistent during the last ten years. Last week's action in small cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 Index, indicates that smaller companies may finally be making up some ground.5

Last week, the Russell 2000 Index rose 6.33%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.4%.6
While this outperformance may be fleeting, a potential broadening of the stock market rally may be considered a healthy development.

Final Thoughts

This week begins the third-quarter earnings season, with companies from a variety of industry sectors reporting (see below). Early earnings reports start predominantly with the major banks, whose earnings results may provide insight into the general health of American consumers.

As is often the case, company guidance about the future earnings may be of greater interest to investors than past results.

 
BY THE NUMBER$

HEALTH INSURANCE - For workers that access their health insurance through an employer, the average annual cost for health insurance coverage for a family plan in 2020 is $20,514, with the employer paying 67% of the total ($13,717) and the employee paying 33% ($6,797) (source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics).
 
CASHING IN - The median sales price of an existing home sold in the United States in August 2020 ($310,600) is the highest ever recorded and is up +11% in the last 12 months (source: National Association of Realtors).

INCLUDE A GREAT BIG HOME OFFICE- 273,100 single family homes began construction nationwide in the last 3 months (June-July-August), the largest trailing 3-month total since August 2007 (source: Census Bureau).   7
 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Industrial Production. Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Econoday, October 9, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Blackrock (BLK).

Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH).

Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS).

Friday: Schlumberger (SLB), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Kansas City Southern (KSU), 
V.F. Corporation (VFC).

Source: Zacks, October 9, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
 
 
 
 
 
THE WEEKLY RIDDLE

 
Al gives Jane three boxes, one labeled DIAMONDS, one labeled PEARLS and one labeled DIAMONDS OR PEARLS. He tells her that all three boxes are labeled incorrectly, and that one box contains diamonds, one pearls and the other emeralds. Al then tells Jane that if she can guess the contents of any box without opening it, she can keep the contents. How many boxes must Jane open to do this, and/or how many boxes can she keep?

 
LAST WEEK'S RIDDLE: In 15 minutes, a dress will dry on a clothes wire. How long would it take you to dry five dresses?

ANSWER: 15 Minutes. They all dry at the same rate and at the same time on a clothes wire.
 


Portfolio Advisory Council, LLC
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James W. Hamilton, CFS, AIF
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W. Thomas Sutton  CFP(R), ChFC, CLU
713.574.6020
 
Philip B. Moran, MBA, ChFC, CFP(R), AIF
713.574.6030
 
John C. Husbands

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions - the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.


CITATIONS:

1. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
2. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
3. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
4. CNBC.com, October 6, 2020
5. The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2020
6. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020 

7. 
Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission - Copyright © 2011 Michael A. Higley

CHART CITATIONS:
The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
Treasury.gov, October 9, 2020