1. Everyone in the industry is anxiously awaiting the June 1 deadline (extended from May 1) for more clarity from the US Government on 232 exclusions... or not.
2. To date after more than 3 weeks after Japanese PM Abe's visit with Trump in Florida, there is no update on US-Japanese ongoing trade negotiations.
3. The price of oil has recently surpassed $70/Barrel.

• Update: Productos Tubulares of Spain (PT) went back to work last week; the strike is over.
• Update: Price increases continue; as an example, last week Vallourec raised their pricing on domestic and import (Brazil) carbon seamless pipe by 6%.
• Update: Add freight into the mix as flatbeds have become scarcer and the pricing has gone up 20% or more over the last few months. This pricing level is projected to continue throughout the summer. LTL rates have been impacted as well and have increased.

• Over the last year and a half, the worldwide market came out of the bottom of the pricing curve and prices started to increase. Carbon A106 is up 35%, A53 is up 27%, Chrome is up 3%-5%, and Stainless is up 5%-10% on average.
• There is no way to gauge the pricing effect from the 232 rulings and the potential 301 investigation. Long products have been increased but it is all over the map. Once this all pans out (unknown when for sure) then we will be in a much better position to truly capture what the effect will be on the market.
• The stainless flange anti-dumping has influenced pricing as they have increased but at varying levels depending on the source.
• The other anti-dumping suits listed have yet to have a visible effect on pricing.
• Due to the 232 rulings and that many countries are negotiating at this time, major steel manufacturers around the world will not even quote at this time.
• Productos Tubulares of Spain (PT), a major global chrome pipe manufacturer, labor force is on strike and has been for over a month. It is unknown when they will get back to work.

• Update: Lead times and validities have settled down and are now stable for the time being. This could/will change based on the final outcomes of the 232 tariffs in June of 2018.

• With all that has been happening (pricing increases) along with the current state of the market, lead times are now going out to as much as ten months ex-mill. With demand slightly up ticking in the oil and gas side of things along with China closing excess capacity over the last two years, this has led to longer lead times for steel products.
• Pricing validity from around the world has quickly dropped from up to a month down to a day in a good amount of cases. There is just too much chaos in the market for the manufacturers to risk selling at below market price.

• Update: We now have a Korean carbon welded line pipe mill telling us that they have used up their allocation for the year. This could lead to spot shortages of this material later this year. Also, the Korean 70% is retroactive to January 1st, 2018. Brazil has come out and agreed to a 70% cap as well but that has not been finalized yet.
• Argentina – The country agreed to limit exports of steel products to the US to 180,000 tons per year, based on the average of steel exports during the past three years plus an additional 35%.

• South Korea – made a deal to open their car market to USA car mfg’s. Thus, they will not be under the 25% tariff. But they will be under a 70% maximum of the last three years average imported weight into the US. Update: South Korea’s 70% cap is now retroactive to Jan. 1^st, 2018.

• Update: The deadline has been moved until June 1^st, 2018. White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro told steel industry executives late on Tuesday, via Reuters, the US officials are considering quotas and “other restrictions” on steel and aluminum imports. This came after the White House announced an extension of tariff exemptions for Canada, Mexico and the European Union (EU) until June 1. Navarro noted: “We will have quotas and other restrictions to make sure that we defend our industries in the interest of national security.”

• Australia, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and the European Union Countries – These countries have until May 1st, 2018 to negotiate better trade deals or be hit with the tariffs.

• The rest of the world – Negotiations with some of these countries continues but these countries are currently subject to a 25% import tariff into the US as of March 23^rd, 2018. On Tuesday April 9^th, China announced that they will reduce their tariffs on imported automobiles in a sign that they are willing to negotiate down their tariff level.

• The anti-dumping is still open since some of the Indian companies did not provide the government all of the requested information. When they do they will be hit with a much higher% than the current 20+%. This will effectively shut down Indian stainless flanges into the USA along with the Chinese.
• Final issuance (and any potential changes) are due by July 26th.

• In October of 2017 Bonney Forged filed an anti-dumping case against China, Taiwan (Bothwell), and Italy (Mega). The estimated dumping margins alleged by the petitioners are 142.72 percent for China, 18.66 to 80.20 percent for Italy, and 116.17 percent for Taiwan. A final determination at this point is scheduled for May 29th, 2018.