From The desk of Margaret Sucré-Vail
July 3rd 2020
Greetings!

I hope this email finds you and your love ones well and ready for the 4th July holiday. Indulge me as we explore what happened to the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence! 

Lives, fortunes, honor of those 56 who signed the Declaration of Independence, nine died of wounds or hardships during the war. Five were captured and imprisoned, in each case with brutal treatment. Several lost wives, sons or entire families. One lost his 13 children. Two wives were brutally treated. All were at one time or another the victims of manhunts and driven from their homes. Twelve signers had their homes completely burned. Seventeen lost everything they owned. Yet not one defected or went back on his pledged word. Their honor, and the nation they sacrificed so much to create is still intact. And, finally, there is the New Jersey Signer, Abraham Clark. He gave two sons to the officer corps in the Revolutionary Army. They were captured and sent to that infamous British prison hulk afloat in New York Harbor known as the hell ship "Jersey," where 11,000 American captives were to die. The younger Clarks were treated with a special brutality because of their father. One was put in solitary and given no food. With the end almost in sight with the war almost won, no one could have blamed Abraham Clark for acceding to the British request when they offered him his sons' lives if he would recant and come out for the King and Parliament. The utter despair in this man's heart, the anguish in his very soul, must reach out to each and every one of us down through 200 years with the answer: "No." 

The 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence proved by their every deed that they made no idle boast when they composed the most magnificent curtain line in history. "And for the support of this Declaration with a firm reliance on the protection of divine providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor."

So, take a few minutes while enjoying your 4th of July holiday and silently thank these patriots.  It's not much to ask for the price they paid. Remember: freedom is never free. We thank these early patriots, as well as those patriots now fighting to KEEP our freedom. I hope you will show your support by sending this to as  many people as you can, please. It's time we get the word out that patriotism is NOT a sin, and the Fourth of July has more MEANING to it than beer, fireworks, HOT DOGS and picnics.... ..
June surveys show improvement in manufacturing sector
Manufacturing data released the week of June 29 was broadly positive on a global scale, purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) in roughly 10 different countries improved during June. At the aggregate global level, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of nearly 48—up from a level of roughly 42 in May, readings above 50 indicate expansionary conditions, while those below 50 indicate contractionary conditions. While global manufacturing has not yet reached a level of expansion, several individual countries experienced expansionary conditions in June, including China, France, the UK and Canada.
Within the U.S, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s manufacturing index also climbed above 50 for the first time since before the coronavirus pandemic set in, reaching 52.6%. On the employment side, the nation’s June jobs report exceeded economists’ expectations by adding 4.8 million non-farm payrolls. In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%,  down from 13.3% in May . Importantly, nearly two-thirds of respondents reported their job losses as temporary.
Recently released data also showed a sharp rebound in U.S. home sales, she said, with sales of new homes rising 44% from April to May, per the National Association of Realtors. While the volume of sales was down 5% from May 2019, the month-over-month increase likely indicates that the annual springtime boost in home-buying activity was delayed, rather than canceled, this year. In addition, a measure of U.S. consumer confidence tracked by The Conference Board rose to a level of 98.1 in June, up from 85 in May.
All in all, the latest data shows that the economy is clearly improving. However, the economic health of the globe will likely remain heavily impacted by the uneven path of coronavirus containment measures and economic reopenings around the world.

As U.S. COVID-19 cases rise, will the economy slow?
Zooming in on the path of the coronavirus, the U.S. has seen an increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations over the past few weeks—especially in states like Texas, Arizona, California and Florida. The resurgence of the virus has led to the reinstatement of some restrictions and closures.
Even in places where local governments haven’t reinstated restrictions, the overall uptick in infections will likely result in reduced economic activity. As we saw over the spring,  individuals tend to limit their own mobility when infection rates rise . The latest surge in cases may lead to a slowdown in consumer spending and a derailing in consumer confidence across parts of the U.S.

Germany temporarily lowers VAT rates
Shifting to government relief efforts to combat the economic damage inflicted by the virus. Germany recently approved a measure to cut its standard VAT (value-added tax) rate from 19% to 16%. The reduction took effect July 1 and will last through year-end. Meanwhile, in the U.S., both the Senate and House of Representatives voted unanimously on June 30 to extend the Paycheck Protection Program—which provides loans to small businesses—through Aug. 8.
In addition, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress on June 30. In remarks before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell noted that the U.S. economy has reached a recovery phase faster than expected, but that the path forward is still extraordinarily uncertain. The Fed chair also reiterated that the U.S. central bank remains strongly committed to using its existing toolkit to ensure that the economic recovery continues.

Strong Q2 performance for equity benchmarks
Despite the uptick in COVID-19 infections in parts of the world, equity markets rose nearly 4% on a global basis the week of June 29. June 30 marked the end of the second quarter of 2020, which she characterized as a record-breaking positive rebound for equity markets, due both to the speed and magnitude of their recovery. For instance, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 30% during the quarter—its best quarterly performance since late 2001—while the S&P 500® Index climbed nearly 20% in its strongest quarter since 1998. The Russell 2000® Index of small cap stocks also logged its best quarter since 1991, rising roughly 25% .
As for the road ahead for risky assets, the team of Russell Investments strategists see  less asymmetry in upside versus downside scenarios than a few months ago . However, the strategists remain positive on both the U.S. and global business cycles, as they expect the recovery phase to deliver healthy, non-inflationary growth over the medium-term. by Senior Portfolio Manager Megan Roach

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Sincerely,
Margaret Sucré-Vail
AIF ® AWMA ®
Here is my article recently published in Forbes - Managing the Human Side of Wealth
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