Greetings!
In this issue we highlight recent nuclear developments in India, a new nuclear bill that was recently passed through Congress, and new advancements in nuclear security and technology. We also recommend several opinion pieces that caught our attention.
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We’re not winning the war on carbon and the failure to act effectively on this challenge has real domestic and global security consequences. Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen to the highest level in
800,000 years
with no dip in sight. It has been a steady climb for over 60 years. While developed nations have driven most of this rise, it is developing nations that are sustaining it in this century.
In the U.S., this summer was a grim reminder of the increasing toll that climate change is taking on the country. Tinder dry conditions in the West fueled
hundreds of destructive wildfires
that charred more than 10,000 square miles, the smoke from which plagued millions of residents.
In the East, yet another “1,000 year rain event”, Hurricane Florence, crushed the Carolina’s. This after the massive destruction of Hurricane Harvey in Houston last year and Super Storm Sandy’s paralyzing of the New York metro area in 2012.
One of the puzzling aspects of tackling the climate challenge is the unwillingness of many that clearly understand the dire implications of failure to embrace the full solution set. In this selective energy generation hierarchy, zero carbon wind and solar energy sources are fully embraced but equally emission-free nuclear power is at best tolerated at current levels or outright opposed. Natural gas is embraced as a “bridge fuel” but it is no carbon reduction panacea and is likely to be a critical power source for at least another
15 years
, taking us into the middle phase of this century.
The continuing carbon challenge is going to be driven by energy demand in developing economies and urban expansion in Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle East. Projections for 2040 are for U.S. energy demand to be static and Europe and Japan to decrease. Some of the developing economy countries may not have the expansive space to widely deploy solar and wind technologies, particularly in Asia. As a result, many have an interest in nuclear power, but not much experience with it.
If nuclear is part of the full range of options for cleanly powering these economies, who will supply it and how will it be effectively governed? Traditional nuclear suppliers, particularly the U.S., are on their heels and their governments are not providing much of an effective life line. But, state-backed companies in Russia and China are expanding their reach and deliberately integrating their global civil nuclear outreach into their geopolitical strategies.
There are real geopolitical and security consequences to ceding the global nuclear power playing field to Russia and China. They are trying to limit U.S. and allied democracies influence in the world. They have not been strong initiators of proposals for strengthening global nuclear governance. They may be more willing to provide sensitive nuclear technologies, like uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing equipment, if it is a condition of the recipient nation. They may not consider nuclear terrorism to be as serious a concern as other nuclear nations.
The U.S. and its allies are not out of the global nuclear game yet, especially since South Korea has emerged as a significant nuclear supplier. These two allies have collaborated on big nuclear projects in the past. But they also are competitors for new business. That model may be outmoded in the face of the challenge from Russia and China. The U.S. and South Korea need to work more closely together on analyzing potential markets, supporting new technologies, strengthening nuclear governance, and leveraging their national and industrial strengths in concert.
Nuclear competition in the 20th century value may have been dominated by commercial and energy imperatives. But in the 21st Century it is being driven by the need for clean energy, effective global governance, and geopolitical influence. Given the impact of climate change on all nations and the implications of ceding global influence to authoritarian competitors, strengthened U.S.-South Korea nuclear collaboration seems both important and inevitable.
Kenneth Luongo,
President, Partnership for Global Security
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Nuclear Policy, Governance, and Geopolitics
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India has the
support of the U.S. and other western countries for its membership into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but China is continuing to block India’s membership.
India and France have
announced that work on the Jaitapur project, the world's largest nuclear power plant (NPP), will start by the end of 2018.
Russia has
confirmed its plans to commission the first unit of a NPP in Belarus by the end of 2019.
Ghana is looking to
boost
nuclear investments in order to fight climate change, and has completed the IAEA’s first nuclear regulation requirements.
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Civil Nuclear Developments
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The IAEA
reported that nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity is shrinking, and this may set back global efforts to mitigate climate change.
Duke Energy
announced that it is not proposing any new nuclear construction for new power plants, and is instead going to focus on
obtaining license extensions for existing power plants.
This
Monday, the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station, the oldest running NPP in the U.S.,
was shut down
due to high maintenance costs, illustrating the uphill battle that the nuclear industry faces.
The Japanese Oma NPP has been
delayed two years, causing further setback for the country’s commitment to decreasing its plutonium stockpile.
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Nuclear Security and Emerging Technologies
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The UK
awarded 8 different organizations contracts to produce feasibility studies for an advanced small modular reactor feasibility and development project.
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Washington Examiner, Sept. 17, 2018
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Sept. 10, 2018
Forbes, Sept. 9, 2018
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The Partnership for Global Security (PGS) is a recognized international leader and innovator in nuclear and transnational security policy developing actionable responses to 21st century security challenges by engaging international, private sector, and multidisciplinary expert partners to assess policy needs, identify effective strategies, and drive demonstrable results.
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