The world breathed a sigh of relief last week when the United States and China took a step toward a trade-war truce.
Financial Times
reported the United States agreed to not increase tariffs from 25 percent to 30 percent on $250 billion of Chinese imports next week. (Current tariffs remain in place, and it is possible new tariffs will be imposed on additional Chinese goods - electronics, apparel, and other consumer items - in mid-December.)
In return, China agreed to purchase $40 to $50 billion of agricultural goods, including soybeans and pork, although no time frame was established for the purchases. It remained unclear what progress was made on intellectual-property protection and rules to prevent currency manipulation, reported The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
U.S. stock markets responded enthusiastically to news about one of the great uncertainties hanging over economic growth, namely the trade war between the United States and China, might be resolved. However, after the details of the deal were announced, markets gave back some gains.
"The tentative truce underwhelmed some international businesses that had been hoping the United States and China would finish up a deal that cemented more sweeping structural changes in China's economy, eliminated additional tariffs scheduled to go into place in December, and even rolled back existing tariffs both sides have added to imports from each country," reported WSJ.
Derek Scissors, an American Enterprise Institute trade expert and White House advisor told WSJ, "If this turns out to be all there is, we could have achieved these results a year ago or more."
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds moved higher during the week, and the yield curve righted itself, reported MarketWatch. The change reflected optimism about trade negotiations. Bond markets also embraced a Federal Reserve announcement it will resume buying Treasuries each month to ensure the banking system has sufficient reserves.
The United States and China hope to have a written draft of the phase-one agreement finalized during the next few weeks.
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Data as of 10/11/19
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1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
0.6%
|
18.5%
|
8.9%
|
11.6%
|
9.6%
|
10.7%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
1.9
|
9.5
|
3.5
|
4.2
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
1.8
|
NA
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
2.3
|
3.4
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-1.3
|
15.4
|
22.7
|
5.8
|
3.8
|
3.4
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
1.2
|
2.8
|
-8.3
|
-2.9
|
-7.9
|
-5.0
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
