Archives| PDF | Research | Week of May 11, 2020
“I don’t find comparing the current downturn with the Great Depression to be very helpful.” – Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve chairman.
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Labor Pains
The Bank of England has projected the COVID-19 pandemic will cause GDP for the United Kingdom to decline 14% this year. That’s the worst economic performance in more than three centuries .

In 1706 (when the Bank of England was twelve years old) Great Britain was a very different place. With the Industrial Revolution fifty years in the future, the agricultural-based economy was devastated by wars and weather. The union with Scotland was still a year away, and Twinings had just manufactured its first tea bag.

Fast forward, across the pond the US economy has been similarly slammed with shocking labor numbers. From what seems now like an alternative universe, unemployment went from 3.7% at year-end 2019 to 14.7% today. And worsening...

 First Quarter 2020 Review and Second Quarter 2020 Outlook
Readers' Say
This Week’s Question
The best indicator of a road to economic recovery will be the...
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Real GDP
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Durable Goods Report (DGR)
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Jobless Claims
Last Week's Results
How is COVID-19 impacting your job status?
Chart of the Week
Labor Lost
It took nine years to add 21 million US workers to payrolls; COVID-19 wiped them out in two months.
Source: BLS, St.Louis Fred, S&P Global Economics; S&P Global Ratings, “Biweekly US Economics Roundup: With Unprecedented Job Losses, Unemployment Soars”, published May 8, 2020.
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Stat of the Week
 Loan Stats at a Glance 
PDI Picks
Crunch time for the BDC market
Current trading is looking bleak for BDCs, but they’ve come through even worse in the past...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis
Pricing, OIDs also widen for double B issuers 
in today’s market
Pricing for double-B rated issuers has widened significantly this quarter. The average yield, assuming a three-year term to repayment, on first-lien institutional term loans for BB rated issuers is 6.19% so far this quarter...
Contact:   Diana Diquez / Refinitiv LPC
The Pulse of Private Equity
The consolidation question
If the current downturn mimics the 2008 financial crisis, private equity may see a few years of industry consolidation before diversifying again...
Contact:   Alex Lykken / PitchBook
High-Yield Bond Statistics
Weekly fund flows source:  Lipper
Covenant Trends 
Percentage of Loans that Allow Uncapped Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Adjustments, Sponsored v Non-Sponsored (LTM)
Private Debt Intelligence
Special Situations Gather Momentum
Private debt fundraising has slowed down in 2020 – so far this year, there have been 44 funds closed raising a combined $35bn...
Contact: Maria Zapata / Preqin 
Debtwire Middle-Market
High-yield bond market
comes roaring back in April
Source: Debtwire Par
The US high yield market came roaring back to life in April with roughly USD 40.6bn in issuance across 51 deals, easily the most active month this year...
Contact:  Vincent Daigger / Debtwire  
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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