Chicagoland Pro-Israel Political Update

Calling balls and strikes for the pro-Israel community since 2006



September 15, 2019

If you remember nothing else, at least remember this:

  • Support the presidential candidate who you think will be the best president, not the candidate you think is the most electable. You don't know who others will vote for, but you can work to persuade others to support your candidate.
  • Trump walked away from the Iran Deal while Iran was in compliance and while it was working, imposed sanctions in violation of the deal, and now is considering extending Iran a line of credit to ease the sanctions and draw Iran back into the deal. There was never a better alternative to the Iran Deal, and there still isn't.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu's promise to unilaterally annex 30% of the West Bank, if implemented, could jeopardize Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic state. If Trump condones annexation, he will prove again that pro-Bibi and pro-Israel are not necessarily synonymous.
  • Read to the end for fun stuff, upcoming events, and the relevance of today's subject line. I love it when you tell me about typos.

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Friends,

Did you watch the Democratic debate? My advice: Back the candidate who you think would be the best president. Don't worry about electability. No one knows who is most electable. Matthew Dowd explains that "no Democratic candidate in the last seven presidential elections lost because they were too liberal and no Republican lost because they were too conservative." Vote for who you support, not for who you think others will support, and then work your hardest to get your candidate to the White House.

Trump and the Republicans have no clue on Iran. It was obvious when we entered into the JCPOA that there was no better, realistic alternative to the Iran Deal. Trump withdrew from the Iran Deal with no strategy and no Plan B. Iran is violating the deal because Trump removed Iran's incentive to comply by imposing sanctions prohibited by the deal while Iran was fully compliant. Now Trump is thinking about extending Iran a $15 billion bailout to entice Iran back into compliance. Trump isn’t playing three-dimensional chess. He doesn’t even know how to move the pieces.

The best proof that the Iran Deal was a good deal is that Prime Minister Netanyahu and others no longer warn us that immediate action is needed to stop Iran from breaking out in weeks or months. The Iran Deal took the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran off the table for the foreseeable future, and Trump walked away to fulfill an irresponsible campaign promise.

Before Iran received sanctions relief under the deal, Iran removed two-thirds of its centrifuges, including the disconnection of every single nuclear enrichment centrifuge at the Fordow facility. Iran reduced its stockpile of up to five percent enriched uranium from over 12,000 kilograms, enough for numerous nuclear bombs, down to under 300 kilograms, far less than the amount needed for even one nuclear bomb--a reduction of 98 percent. Iran removed the core of the Arak reactor and filled it with cement. Iran was forced to redesign that facility to ensure it cannot be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. All of Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons were blocked, and to ensure that remained the case, we had 24/7 access to all known sites, including the right to inspect any site within 24 days under the most intrusive inspections regime any country has ever agreed to. Many important restrictions imposed on Iran by the Iran Deal lasted beyond 15 years and some, including a ban on nuclear weapons, were permanent. 

In return, we gave Iran access to its own money . It was not a payment from the U.S., and the amount of sanctions relief came to about $50 billion (the $1.7 billion additional payment we sometimes hear about was to settle unrelated litigation with Iran, and that payment saved U.S. taxpayers money ). Only someone as unskilled at deal making as Donald Trump would think that giving Iran access to its own money in return for Iran blocking all of its paths to a nuclear weapon was a bad deal.

The purpose of the Iran Deal was not to stop all of Iran's nefarious activities, but to remove the potentially existential threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, thus making Iran's other activities easier to counter. Iran continues to fund bad actors in the region, but to the extent Trump's new sanctions decreased Iran's funding of its proxies, those groups obtained alternative funding . Now Trump wants to extend Iran a line of credit.

Trump's malfeasance extends beyond Iran. Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) notes that "on Syria, he threatened – via tweet – to withdraw all U.S. troops, leaving a land bridge for Iran and its proxies from Tehran to the Mediterranean. On North Korea, he attempted to entice a brutal dictator, Kim Jong Un, into a deal and got nothing in return besides ongoing ballistic nuclear tests. On Russia, President Trump refused to take any action to defend against its ongoing interference in our democracy and instead has aligned himself with President Putin."

Will Bibi annex part of the West Bank? Three things are certain: death, taxes, and Benjamin Netanyahu saying and doing whatever it takes to get reelected. We don't know if his talk of unilaterally annexing parts or all of the West Bank is more than election rhetoric, but Israel Policy Forum is right: unilateral annexation "will have disastrous consequences for Israel, its security, and its status as a Jewish and democratic state."

Bibi opposed annexation until a few days before the previous election. He knows what it would mean. If anyone can walk it back he can, but he may need our help.

From 1948 until Trump was elected, Israeli leaders could count on the U.S. president to provide a counterweight of sanity to the politics of the moment in Israel. With Trump in office, it will be up to Congress and the pro-Israel community to publicly oppose annexation should Bibi win on September 17 and assemble a coalition that appears to favor it.

Did Israel plant spy devices at the White House? If you read the Politico article, you owe it to yourself to read this from Michael Koplow.
 
Exit John Bolton. As Jeff Greenfield said two years ago, "working for Trump has all the job security of a Spinal Tap drummer."

Last week's newsletter. Pardon Me, Is This Occupied?


Tweet of the Week. Batya Ungar-Sargon (click on the image).

Twitter Thread of the Week. Steve Sheffey. (Gotta call it as I see it.)

Post-Debate Quote of the Week. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ).

Video Clip of the Week. Spinal Tap Drummers .

Upcoming Events. Dana Gordon and I are hosting presidential candidate Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) on Thursday, Sept. 19, at 7:00pm in Highland Park. Contributions are not required  but RSVPs are, either by replying to this email or by  clicking here.

Bennet's mother was Jewish and escaped from the Warsaw ghetto during the Holocaust. Dave Benger, a student at Harvard Law School whose parents fled persecution of Jews in the former Soviet Union, wrote about Bennet's pro-Israel record.

Dana and I are hosting pro-choice champion Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL) on September 22.  Details here.

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The Fine Print : This newsletter usually runs on Sunday mornings. Unless stated otherwise, my views do not necessarily reflect the views of any candidates or organizations that I support or am associated with. I reserve the right to change my mind as I learn more. Intelligent, well-informed people may disagree with me; read opposing views and decide for yourself. A link to an article doesn't mean that I agree with everything its author has ever said or that I even agree with everything in the article; it means that the article supports or elaborates on the point I was making. I take pride in accurately reporting the facts on which I base my opinions. Tell me if you spot any inaccuracies, typos, or other mistakes so that I can correct them in the next newsletter (and give you credit if you want it). Advertisements reflect the views of the advertisers, not necessarily of me, and advertisers are solely responsible for the content of their advertisements. I read, value, and encourage replies to my newsletters, but I don't always have time to acknowledge replies or to engage in one-on-one discussion. Don't expect a reply if your message is uncivil or if it's clear from your message that you haven't read the newsletter or clicked on the relevant links. © 2019 Steve Sheffey. All rights reserved.