April 27, 2022 | Volume 2 | Issue 2 | As of Week 16
Welcome to the Florida Disease Activity Update, from the desk of Dr. Jonathan Day.
It continues to be Clarke’s privilege to share Dr. Day's weekly analysis of arbovirus disease activity in Florida with mosquito control professionals across the state. Our shared goal with Dr. Day is to provide timely and actionable information that mosquito control programs can use to make operational decisions and protect public health from vector-borne diseases.

An archive of all past newsletter issues remains available on the Clarke website.
A QUESTION FROM OUR READERS

Jeff from Tallahassee, FL asks: “Why is it difficult for locally-transmitted human malaria to re-establish in Florida?”

A: Locally-acquired human malaria (Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, and P. ovale) had a major impact on the development and economy Florida from 1800 through 1940. For example, in 1919, a 65% human infection rate was reported in Taylor County. The Golden Age of malaria control in Florida occurred between 1930 and 1932, when malaria control stations were established in Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville. Florida was reported malaria-free in 1949 after 67 years of local transmission.

Since then, there have been rare reports (1990, 1996, and 2003) of locally-acquired malaria infections in Florida. To re-establish, malaria must first enter Florida in an infected traveler, which actually does happen frequently. From 2010-2021, an average of 812 travel-related human malaria cases were reported in Florida per year. However, less than 1 locally-acquired human malaria case per year was reported during the same period of time. It is the behavior of the vectors (Anopheles quadrimaculatus and An. crucians) that makes re-establishment so difficult. These mosquitoes are most active in the middle of the night. Prior to the mid-20th century, most homes were not air conditioned and window screens were rare, so people were routinely exposed overnight. Today, the adoption of AC, window screens, and a tendency to stay indoors overnight all make the re-establishment of human malaria in Florida highly unlikely.
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR ARBOVIRAL TRANSMISSION IN FLORIDA DURING 2022

The 2022 arboviral transmission season has gotten off to a very slow start in Florida. This is likely due to the rainfall patterns during the first four months of the year. Ground water profiles for high EEEV and SLEV/WNV transmission years are shown below.
Modeled Water Table Depth: Epidemic SLE vs. Epizootic EEE
Figure 1. Ground water profiles for heavy EEEV (1991)
and SLEV (1990) transmission years.

For EEEV, dry winters, wet springs, dry summers, and wet autumns favor the amplification and transmission of virus. For this reason, we begin tracking EEEV in November and end the transmission season in October.
Temporal Dynamics of EEEV Transmission in Florida
Figure 2. The typical EEEV transmission season in Florida.
 
For SLEV and WNV, a dry winter and spring followed by a wet summer and autumn favors the amplification and transmission of these viruses. For this reason, we begin tracking SLEV and WNV during the calendar year (January-December).
Temporal Dynamics of Flavivirus Transmission in Florida
Figure 3. The typical SLEV/WNV transmission season in Florida.
 
As of April 24th, 2022 the surface water conditions in Florida have been consistently wet in the north and dry in the south.
Keetch Byram Drought Index
Figure 4. The April 24, 2022 Keetch Byram Drought Index for Florida,
extremely wet in the north and extremely dry in the south.
 
The conditions in north Florida are currently too wet to support extensive EEEV transmission. The dry conditions in the south may favor WNV transmission later in the year.
Year to Date Summary of Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission

So far in 2022 the following mosquito-borne disease transmission and introduction numbers have been reported (as of April 23, 2022).
Table 1. Summary of mosquito-borne disease transmission
and introductions in Florida as of April 23, 2022
OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES TO CONSIDER
Vector and arboviral surveillance remain one of the most important tools that vector control agencies currently have at their disposal. Arboviral transmission indices (sentinel chickens, positive equines, positive exotics (i.e., emus), positive humans, and positive mosquito pools) provide indicators of local virus transmission, although sometimes not in a timely manner. Monitoring mosquito populations and their age structure provide added information about potential transmission risk. Additional vector control efforts in and around sites where virus transmission is known or suspected of recently occurring provide another potential mechanism to mitigate viral transmission.

Specific operational strategies will be discussed during the 2022 arboviral transmission season depending on where and when vector-borne disease transmission becomes evident in the state of Florida.

There is currently little risk of arboviral transmission in Florida, although it is important to note that transmission risk is never zero. The dry conditions in south Florida during this time of year may favor WNV amplification and transmission later in the summer. April, May, and June is the peak avian nesting season in Florida and what happens during the next two months may determine the intensity of WNV transmission in July, August, and September. It will also be important to monitor travel-related dengue cases introduced into South Florida during the next three months. High numbers of travel-related cases may translate to an increased risk of locally-transmitted DENV during the summer of 2022.
ABOUT DR. JONATHAN DAY
Jonathan Day, Professor Emeritus of Medical Entomology from the University of Florida, is a national expert on mosquitoes and other blood-feeding arthropods that transmit diseases to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. In collaboration with other researchers, Dr. Day has developed an effective system for monitoring and predicting epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases.
Acknowledgments: This analysis would not be possible without the tireless efforts of multiple agencies across Florida. At least 27 Florida agencies collect serum samples from sentinel chickens each week and mail them to the Florida Department of Health Tampa Branch Laboratory for analysis, compilation and reporting. Data are summarized by researchers at the Florida Department of Health in Tallahassee and reported weekly as the Florida Arbovirus Surveillance Report.

Contributors to this summary and full report include: Andrea Morrison, PhD, MSPH, Rebecca Zimler, PhD, MPH, and Danielle Stanek, DVM, Florida Department of Health, Bureau of Epidemiology; Lea Heberlein-Larson, DrPH; Alexis LaCrue, PhD, MS; Maribel Castaneda, and Valerie Mock, BS, Florida Department of Health Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, and Carina Blackmore, DVM, PhD, FDOH Division of Disease Control and Health Protection. And, Dr. Rachel Lacey, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory in Kissimmee, FL. 

Daily updates of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) are produced by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Forest Service.

All of the graphics used in issues of this Newsletter are designed and developed by Gregory Ross.
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