A summary of drought conditions based on the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar on 
November 14, 2017
 

Auburn University Water Resources Center and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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Portions of the ACF Basin are under dry conditions, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 11/14/2017).    

Our next briefing will be Tuesday,December 12, 2017, 1 pm ET. 

Current Drought Status
 
 
Abnormally dry areas are visible in the western Alabama, upper west Georgia, and the Flint river basin, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 11/14/2017). 
Percent of normal precipitation over the past 90 days

        
Rainfall deficits are growing in the lower ACF and northwest Florida and north Florida in the area between impacts from huracanes Irma and Nate. In the upper ACF, above normal rainfall conditions are present
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
 

According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, probability of precipitation in the southeastern U.S. will be below-normal for the next three months with drier conditions for the lower Alabama, Georgia, and upper Florida.  
        
        
Realtime Streamflow
                
      
Realtime streamflows in the ACF basin continue to be mostly in the normal range.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ). 
 
Flint River at Albany Streamflow
   

Streamflow for the Flint River at Albany is in the normal range, with similar levels at  Bainbridge, Griffin, and Carsonville. Levels at Chattahoochee-Atlanta and Chattahoochee-Whitesburg are in the below-normal range.
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ).

Groundwater Conditions

                 Previous Brief:                                 Current Brief:
       
          
 
Groundwater conditions range from normal to much-below-normal in the ACF Basin. Wells near Albany are moving from below-normal to normal( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ).

 


One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast

 
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center predicts below-normal flows within most of the basin especially by mid December.


Lake Lanier Water Level


Lake Lanier level has held relatively steady and is currently in Zone 2. The forecast indicate levels are higher than the historical median elevation trend for the next two weeks, but it will maintain in zone 2.


ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage


The ACF System Conservation Storage continue to be in Zone 2 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 2 (orange line) over the next few weeks.
 
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
*"Abnormally dry" areas are showing up in the western Alabama and the Flint River basin. 
 
*Recent temperature trends show warming over the entire U.S. and the Southeast, which makes winter temperature more variable.
 
* More presence of light rainfall (<1.5 in) over the north Florida and southern Georgia during the last month. Higher precipitation levels over the upper ACF. 
 
* The forecast for the next week is for dry conditions.
 
* La Niña is developing in the Pacific - with a ~ 75% chance.
 
* La Niña favors warm and dry fall.
 
* Models and CPC forecast are favoring a warm and dry fall.

*Most of the real-time streamflows in the ACF Basin are forecasted to be below normal, especially by mid December. 
 
*28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, West Point, Columbus , and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in normal range.

 
*28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River at Atlanta and near Whitesburg are currently in the below normal range range. 
 
*28-day average streamflows for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.

 
*Groundwater levels range from the above normal to much below normal range across the ACF Basin.

 
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 month streamflow forecast below-normal flows for most of the ACF basin. 

*3 month streamflow forecasts favor below-normal flows as la Niña dominate, especially considering the typical trend of flow increase during November-March

*Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are  based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
 
* West Point and Walter F. George are below guide curve but remain in Zone 1.
 
* Buford remains in Zone 2 and is forecasted to decline slightly over the next few weeks.
 
* Continuing to meet downstream flow requirements for water quality and water supply.
 
* The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 2 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 2 over the next few weeks.





Acknowledgments and Resources:
  • David Zierden, FSU
  • Paul Ankcorn, USGS
  • Jeff Dobur, SERFC
  • Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Sandra Guzmán, Auburn University  
 
General drought information

General climate and El Niño information

Streamflow monitoring & forecasting
 

Groundwater monitoring

The complete set of briefing slides from this briefing can be found at: http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars    

Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:  
  
Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk