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A summary of drought conditions based on the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar on
June 27, 2017
Auburn University Water Resources Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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Drought conditions in the ACF Basin have continued to improve to the point that the basin is almost entirely drought-free, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 6/20/2017). The ACF Basin is nearly drought-free.
Due to the disappearance of drought conditions in the basin, our drought webinars are transitioning from twice a month to monthly.
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, July 18, 2017, 1 pm ET.
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Current Drought Status
Drought conditions in the ACF Basin have continued to improve to the point that the basin is almost entirely drought-free, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 6/20/2017).
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Percent of normal precipitation over the past 90 days
Rainfall deficits throughout most of the ACF Basin have been erased over the past 90 days by greater-than-normal precipitation amounts.
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Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, most of the southeastern U.S. has an equal probability of above-normal, normal, and below-normal (white areas).
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U.S. Drought Monitor
According to the most recent U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook, remaining drought conditions in Georgia, Alabama and Florida are expected to disappear in the coming weeks.
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Realtime Streamflow
Nearly all realtime streamflows have recovered in Georgia, Florida and Alabama, with many at above-normal levels.
(
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Flint River at Albany Streamflow
Streamflow for the Flint River at Albany rose to above-normal levels and has receded to the 75th percentile level; while levels at Griffin, Carsonville, and Bainbridge are in the normal range (see
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief: Current Brief:
Groundwater conditions have generally improved over the past few weeks, though wells still range from normal to low in the ACF Basin (
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center favors near-normal flows for the Chattahoochee, Flint and Apalachicola rivers for the next month.
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Lake Lanier remains in Zone 4, though levels have shown recent improvements, and is forecasted to stay steady (dashed line) for the next few weeks.
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ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage
The ACF System Conservation Storage continues to be in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 (orange line) for the next few weeks.
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Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
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Drought has been eliminated in the last two weeks in the lower part of the basin; little to no change took place in the middle or upper part, but conditions remain much improved from earlier in the year.
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Rainfall in the last two weeks was copious, especially in the lower part of the basin, and driven by Tropical Storm Cindy, helping ease longer-term deficits and produce shorter-term surpluses.
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Rainfall in the next two weeks will be near to slightly above normal and greatest closer to the Gulf of Mexico - typical for summer.
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ENSO continues to be in the neutral phase, and the outlook for the balance of the year remains unchanged from the time of the last webinar.
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The tropics are quiet for now.
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Three-month outlook calls for above-normal temperatures, equal chances of above-/below-/near-normal rainfall, and retaining the status-quo for drought basin-wide.
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Real-time
streamflows
in the ACF basin range from much above-normal to much-below- normal.
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28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia is currently in the below- normal range, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega is currently in normal range.
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28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier range from normal, to below-normal flow.
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28-day average streamflows for the Flint River currently range from normal, to above- normal flow.
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Groundwater levels range from low to normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 and 3 month streamflow forecasts favor near-normal flows for the Chattahoochee, Flint and Apalachicola rivers. Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
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Short and mid-term crop water drought stress is low across the ACF Basin, derived from the UAH Cumulative Water Stress Index.
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Season-long crop water drought stress is lower and (currently) falling in the lower ACF Basin.
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Based on the Lawn & Garden Soil Moisture Index, there little to no soil moisture deficit across most of the ACF Basin.
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West Point and Walter F. George reservoirs are at their guide curves.
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Buford still remains in Zone 4 and is forecasted to remain steady over the next few weeks.
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Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
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The ACF System Conservation Storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain there over the next few weeks.
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Acknowledgments and Resources:
- Daniel Brouillette, FSU
- Tony Gotvald, USGS
- Todd Hamill, SERFC
- Cameron Handyside, UAH
- Tom Littlepage, AL OWR
- Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Eric Reutebuch, Auburn University
General drought information
General climate and El Niño information
Streamflow monitoring & forecasting
Groundwater monitoring
Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:
Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk
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