Founder's Notes
May 15, 2017
 
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John R. Deitrick, CFP®

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Global Financial Private Capital, is an SEC registered investment adviser principally located in Sarasota, Florida. Investment advisory services offered through Global Financial Private Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. SEC registration does not imply any level of skill or training.

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Should Investors Sell In May?
Synopsis
  • The story of large money managers selling equities in May and then returning in November pops up around this time every year. 
  • History shows that this strategy may have worked in the past, but what matters more is if it will work going forward.
  • Easy money left the stock market a long time ago, and it's never coming back. 
Sell in May?

There is a saying in equities, "Sell in May and go away," which refers to the theory that large money managers sell equities in May and then return in November. The commotion gets even louder on Wall Street when the stock market starts off strong and continues to gain momentum into the spring, as it has this year.

The story goes that large money managers like to lock in gains before the summer months for two interrelated reasons:
  1. Vacation: Fund managers don't want to have to worry about being fully invested while on vacation. They want to relax and enjoy their time away from the market.
  2. Increased Volatility: Summer months typically see low trading volumes given that traders and investors are also on vacation. Less activity mean less liquidity which results in more volatility.
Behaviors and emotions do impact market returns in the short-term, so it's worth observing historical data to see if they support selling in May. The chart below depicts simulated results for three different strategies from April 1871 through April 2017.
Source: https://www.cxoadvisory.com/3873/calendar-effects/sell-in-may-over-the-long-run/

Selling in May and buying back in November (red line) would have taken a $1 investment and turned it into $1,410. The opposite, selling in November and buying back in May, did much worse (blue line) by only returning $62 over the same period. Therefore, it appears that the adage holds some merit.

Admittedly, there are several ways to test the efficacy of selling in May, and the assumptions used in backtesting can often lead to different results. Play with data enough and it's very likely that a different outcome could surface.

However, the green line shows the performance of a simple buy and hold strategy and immediately puts things into perspective. The return on a $1 investment grows to well over $300,000 during the same period, which is over 200-times larger than the red line.

Any trading strategy must be able to outperform a buy and hold by a considerable margin to justify the trading costs and taxes paid over time. I find it highly unlikely that massaging data and modifying assumptions could close the gap between the green and red lines.

Simply put, even if there is some merit to stocks doing better when it's colder outside versus hot and humid, doing nothing at all appears to be far superior. 
 
Implications for Investors

Think about what it took to fix a car back in the 1970s versus today. Back then, a wrench and a basic understanding of an engine could alleviate most issues. Today, consumers practically need an engineering degree to change the air in the tires. The sophistication has turned cars into computers on wheels, and trained mechanics are now the only ones suited to repair them.

Financial markets have evolved in a similar manner. Consider the following:
  • Depth of Information: Satellites now capture high-resolution pictures of parking lots, shipyards, farmland, etc. Computers then analyze these images to count the number of cars in each parking lot, ships in port, and corn stalks being harvested to look for trends in economic data. Traders then use this data to inform their buy/sell decisions.
  • The Need for Speed: Speed is so critical that it motivated a company (Spread Networks) to spend over $300 million to lay 825 miles of straight-line optical fiber to shave off three microseconds (three millionths of a second) of communication time between the futures markets in Chicago to the stock markets in New York. Access to this fiber line runs $10 million a year, and business is booming.
  • Mind Reading: Firms now utilize Natural Language Processing (NLP) in their trading strategies and are completing tasks no human could ever tackle. NLP is a technology that trains computers to analyze and derive meaning from human language in a smart and useful way. It is based on artificial intelligence that examines patterns in data to improve a program's own understanding.
Back when we could fix our own cars, only the military used satellites, the world wide web was science fiction, and computer programmers had not even coded Pac-Man yet let alone begun trying to teach machines how to predict human thought.

Those who work on Wall Street have also changed. Old school traders have been replaced with MBAs and PhDs from some of the most prestigious academic institutions in the country, and these traders don't use wrenches.

Said another way, today's stock market consists of artificial intelligence running on top of wires that transfer data close to the speed of light being driven by some of the smartest people alive. There is simply no conceivable way that a trading strategy as basic as sell before Memorial Day and buy back after Halloween could work on a consistent basis.

The bottom line is that easy money left the stock market a long time ago, and it's never coming back. Keep to a long-term investment strategy because trying to capture anything in the short-term on a consistent basis is going to require a lot more than an old saying that rhymes.
This commentary is not intended as investment advice or an investment recommendation. It is solely the opinion or our investment managers at the time of writing. Nothing in the commentary should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Past performance is no indication of future performance. Liquid securities, such as those held within DIAS portfolios, can fall in value. Global Financial Private Capital is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. 

Global Financial Private Capital, is an SEC registered investment adviser principally located in Sarasota, Florida.   Investment advisory services offered through Global Financial Private Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. SEC registration does not imply any level of skill or training.

501 North Cattlemen Road, Suite 106, Sarasota, FL  34232   Tel (866) 641-2186   
Fax (941) 312-6512   www.gf-pc.com
Tax Implications of Retiring Overseas
Used With permission from the May 2017 Bottom Line CPA Newsletter

Are you approaching retirement age and wondering where you can retire to make your retirement nest egg last longer? Retiring abroad may be the answer. But first, it's important to look at the tax implications because not all retirement country destinations are created equal. Here's what you need to know.

Taxes on Worldwide Income

Leaving the United States does not exempt U.S. citizens from their U.S. tax obligations. While some retirees may not owe any U.S. income tax while living abroad, they must still file a return annually with the IRS. This would be the case even if all of their assets were moved to a foreign country. The bottom line is that you may still be taxed on income regardless of where it is earned.

Unlike most countries, the United States taxes individuals based on citizenship and not residency. As such, every U.S. citizen (and resident alien) must file a tax return reporting worldwide income (including income from foreign trusts and foreign bank and securities accounts) in any given taxable year that exceeds threshold limits for filing.

The filing requirement generally applies even if a taxpayer qualifies for tax benefits, such as the foreign earned income exclusion or the foreign tax credit, that substantially reduce or eliminate U.S. tax liability.

Note:  These tax benefits are not automatic and are only available if an eligible taxpayer files a U.S. income tax return.

Any income received or deductible expenses paid in foreign currency must be reported on a U.S. return in U.S. dollars. Likewise, any tax payments must be made in U.S. dollars.
In addition, taxpayers who are retired may have to file tax forms in the foreign country in which they reside. You may, however, be able to take a tax credit or a deduction for income taxes you paid to a foreign country. These benefits can reduce your taxes if both countries tax the same income.

Nonresident aliens who receive income from U.S. sources must determine whether they have a U.S. tax obligation. The filing deadline for nonresident aliens is generally April 15 (April 18 in 2017 and April 17 in 2018) or June 15 depending on sources of income.

I ncome from Social Security or Pensions

If Social Security is your only income, then your benefits may not be taxable and you may not need to file a federal income tax return. If you receive Social Security you should receive a Form SSA-1099, Social Security Benefit Statement, showing the amount of your benefits. Likewise, if you have pension or annuity income, you should receive a Form 1099-R for each distribution plan.

Retirement income is generally not taxed by other countries. As a U.S. citizen retiring abroad who receives Social Security, for instance, you may owe U.S. taxes on that income, but may not be liable for tax in the country where you're spending your retirement years.

However, if you receive income from other sources (either U.S. or country of retirement) as well, from a part-time job or self-employment, for example, you may have to pay U.S. taxes on some of your benefits. You may also be required to report and pay taxes on any income earned in the country where you retired.

Each country is different, so consult a local tax professional or one who specializes in expat tax services.

Foreign Earned Income Exclusion

If you've retired overseas, but take on a full-or part-time job or earn income from self-employment, the IRS allows qualifying individuals to exclude all, or part, of their incomes from U.S. income tax by using the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE). In 2017, this amount is $102,100.This means that if you qualify, you won't pay tax on up to $102,100 of your wages and other foreign earned income in 2017.

Note:  Income earned overseas is exempt from taxation only if certain criteria are met such as residing outside of the country for at least 330 days over a 12-month period, or an entire calendar year.

Tax Treaties

The United States has income tax treaties with a number of foreign countries, but these treaties generally don't exempt residents from their obligation to file a tax return.

Under these treaties, residents (not necessarily citizens) of foreign countries are taxed at a reduced rate or are exempt from U.S. income taxes on certain items of income they receive from sources within the United States. These reduced rates and exemptions vary among countries and specific items of income.

Treaty provisions are generally reciprocal; that is they apply to both treaty countries. Therefore, a U.S. citizen or resident who receives income from a treaty country and who is subject to taxes imposed by foreign countries may be entitled to certain credits, deductions, exemptions, and reductions in the rate of taxes of those foreign countries.

Affordable Care Act

Starting in 2014, the individual shared responsibility provision calls for each individual to have minimum essential coverage (MEC) for each month, qualify for an exemption, or make a payment when filing his or her federal income tax return.

All U.S. citizens are subject to the individual shared responsibility provision. If you are not yet eligible for Medicare, U.S. citizens living abroad are generally subject to the same individual shared responsibility provision as U.S. citizens living in the United States.

However, U.S. citizens or residents living abroad for at least 330 days within a 12 month period are treated as having MEC during those 12 months and thus will not owe a shared responsibility payment for any of those 12 months. Also, U.S. citizens who qualify as a bona fide resident of a foreign country for an entire taxable year are treated as having MEC for that year.
State Taxes

Many states tax resident income as well, so even if you retire abroad, you may still owe state taxes--unless you established residency in a no-tax state before you moved overseas.
Some states honor the provisions of U.S. tax treaties; however, some states do not, therefore it is prudent to consult a tax professional.

Relinquishing U.S. Citizenship

Taxpayers who relinquish their U.S. citizenship or cease to be lawful permanent residents of the United States during any tax year must file a dual-status alien return and attach Form 8854, Initial and Annual Expatriation Statement. A copy of the Form 8854 must also be filed with Internal Revenue Service (Philadelphia, PA 19255-0049), by the due date of the tax return (including extensions).

Note:  Giving up your U.S. citizenship doesn't mean giving up your right to receive social security, pensions, annuities or other retirement income. However, the U.S. Internal Revenue Code (IRC) requires the Social Security Administration (SSA) to withhold nonresident alien tax from certain Social Security monthly benefits. If you are a nonresident alien receiving social security retirement income, then SSA will withhold a 30 percent flat tax from 85 percent of those benefits unless you qualify for a tax treaty benefit. This results in a withholding of 25.5 percent of your monthly benefit amount.

Consult a Tax Professional Before You Retire

Don't wait until you're ready to retire to consult a tax professional. Call the office today and find out what your options are.

Global Financial Private Capital and Advanced Retirement Design are not affiliated in any manner with Tim Cistone or his firm Bottom Line CPA, LLC.  The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and are not those of Global Financial Private Capital, LLC., an SEC Registered Investment Adviser or Advanced Retirement Design. Global Financial Private Capital and Advanced Retirement Design are not responsible for any comments made by the author of the above article.
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I hope you find this information adds value. If you would like to talk to John regarding these, or any other financial concerns, please feel free to call us at (614) 602-6506 and we will be happy to schedule a visit.

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Investment advisory services offered through Global Financial Private Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. SEC registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This commentary is not intended as investment advice or an investment recommendation it is solely the opinion of our investment managers at the time of writing. Nothing in this commentary should be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Insurance and Annuity product guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing company, and are not offered through Global Financial Private Capital. 
 
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ and the federally registered CFP (with flame design) in the US., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.

AssetLock® is tracking software used to monitor the performance of a client's portfolio, and to predetermine the amount of downside the client is willing to tolerate.  It is NOT an actual stop order and will NOT automatically sell the individual securities in the portfolio.  Therefore, the AssetLock® value is a reference point to encourage a conversation between the advisor/firm and the client to determine if the client's portfolio should remain unchanged, reset the AssetLock® percentage by reallocating to a different risk profile, liquidate part or all of their portfolio or opt out of AssetLock®.
John R. Deitrick  CFP®
Advanced Retirement Design LLC.
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Suite 150
Dublin, OH 43016
Office: 614.602.6506
Fax: 614.259.6094
Email: jdeitrick@advancedretirementdesign.com
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