In order to set our UGB for twenty years of growth, certain assumptions and models were used to determine just how much land is required to support our community vision. Things like the number of jobs we expect to attract, our predicted population growth, and the assumed household size all impact how much land we will need for homes, jobs, parks, and schools. You can learn more about these assumptions in our Population and Demographics Fact Sheet.

We know people are concerned about some of our assumptions, including population forecasts and housing mix (the ratio of single family detached homes to multifamily dwellings), and how they compare to recent reports about what is currently taking place in our community. We know that 2012, the year our assumptions are based on, feels like a long time ago. In order to move forward with creating our own UGB, Council gave us direction to use the adopted population forecasts in 2012 and reaffirmed this direction in 2015, so that we could set our baseline UGB. Updating our assumptions now would set us back a number of years. In addition, updating one assumption means you have to update them all because they all interrelate.  

Monitoring and Adjusting - Flexible Implementation

Setting our UGB allows us to begin monitoring – an important program that will allow us to adapt to emerging trends. Setting our UGB also allows us to begin urban reserve planning using the most recent population forecasts. If our previous population forecasts or housing mix are off, we will be better prepared to consider necessary changes to implement our community vision and values.