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Because you asked ...
How will future growth impact BPES capacity?
One question we're hearing about the impending Browns Point replacement project is: Will it be big enough? And for how long? Since Northeast Tacoma is located in a somewhat remote suburban area of Tacoma, we understand this concern and asked our demographer and local planning experts to help interpret some of the data.
Here is what we learned:
Population growth vs. enrollment growth
Population growth in Tacoma and Pierce County overall does not necessarily imply big gains in the K-12
population. Similar to Seattle, Tacoma sees a lot of population growth but the percentage of the
population that is school age is very low compared to many surrounding areas.
For example, according to the state Office of Financial Management, between 2010 and 2016:
- The overall population of Tacoma increased from 198,397 to 206,100-up by 7,703.
- The Tacoma K-12 enrollment declined from 28,591 to 28,111-down by 480.
Tacoma growth rate lower than County
While we are seeing growth, the City's share of the County population has shrunk as the housing market
and Puget Sound economy have improved and families are drawn to the large number of affordable,
single-family homes in nearby suburban communities. Trends show that more people are migrating to
the outer suburbs, and Tacoma's share of the County kindergarten population has declined over the
past few years while surrounding suburbs like Bethel, Puyallup and Sumner are seeing booms.
Majority of Tacoma growth will be in Mixed Use Centers
The City of Tacoma is expected to plan for an additional 127,000 residents by 2040 (a planning figure,
not a forecast), which the City estimates would equate to around 59,000 new units for both new
residents and the loss of existing units due to conversion for new construction. About 80 percent of that
growth is intended to be accommodated within the City's Mixed Use Centers, such as Downtown. Mixed Use Centers are designed to be areas that provide a range of housing choices, employment opportunities, transit-supportive development, pedestrian and bicycle facilities and a mix of shops, services and public spaces.
Northeast Tacoma population not expected to significantly change
According to City planners, Northeast Tacoma does not have significant development capacity, and they
don't expect a significant change in the overall density or residential building types in that area. Most of
the area is zoned single family. The slopes are restricted by critical areas and are likely to become even
more difficult to develop over time. There are also no designated Mixed Use Centers in Northeast Tacoma.
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