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This Oil Rebound Is Just Another Fake-Out. Here's Where Prices Are Really Headed.
Since the crude oil bust began in late 2014, prices have rocketed through three major price rallies. Each rally was fueled by widespread hope and expectations - often stoked by announcements from
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers - that a market "rebalancing" was imminent due to shale output declines, surging demand, or OPEC intervention. But prices crashed anew after data emerged showing no decline in the glut.
The latest rally began last September amid discussions between some OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut production. The rally gathered steam in December after 22 producers pledged to reduce their combined output by 1.8 million barrels per day from October levels. U.S. West Texas Intermediate soared to $57 per barrel from $45 average in September.
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Greeks Dominate Ship Orders This Year
 The Greeks have led the charge to order new ships this year, according to analysis out today from online pricing portal, VesselsValue. Owners from the Mediterranean nationan account for nearly 30% of all orders placed to date.
VesselsValue Deals database shows that Greek owners have placed 35 orders for new bulkers and tankers since the start of 2017. Globally only 119 orders have been placed.
Top of the Greek list to date has been Chartworld Shipping followed by Enesel and a host of other well known names backed by the likes of George Economou and John Angelicoussis.
Owners from the US and Singpore ranked second and third in newbuild ordering so far the year, according to VesselsValue data.
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Maersk Sees Shipping Recovery on Horizon as Profit Tops Forecast
A.P. Moller-Maersk beat first-quarter net profit forecasts on Thursday, boosted by
the energy business it plans to spin off, but also reported signs of improvement at its long-suffering container shipping business.
Shares in the Danish conglomerate climbed almost 5 percent after it said a gradual recovery in freight rates should boost earnings at Maersk Line, the world's biggest container shipping business, over the rest of the year.
Maersk has been hit by the double blow of low oil prices at its energy arm and sliding prices in its shipping business due to lacklustre global trade and industry overcapacity. Last year, new CEO Soren Skou announced
plans to focus on transport, while seeking alliances or a separate listing for its energy division.
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2020 Sulfur Cap to Impact Credit Lines
The global sulfur emissions limit will drop to 0.50 percent in 2020, and most people are yet to appreciate what this will do to ship operators' finances.
"The credit lines for fuel purchases will have to be expanded. Will suppliers and banks allow that?" asks Poul Woodall, Director for Environment & Sustainability at DFDS, the largest company combining short sea shipping and logistics in Northern Europe.
"If the gap between traditional heavy fuel oil and the new 0.50 percent product climbs to $400 as some are predicting, we are talking an extra bill to industry of $80 billion per annum."
MarEx spok to Woodall to find how DFDS is meeting the challenges.
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First Zero-Emission, Fully-Autonomous Container Ship Planned for 2020
Norwegian fertilizer producer Yara and maritime technology firm Kongsberg Gruppe are teaming up to build what they say will be the world's first fully-electric and autonomous container feeder ship.
"The new zero-emission vessel will be a game-changer for global maritime transport contributing to meet the United Nations sustainability goals," the companies said on Tuesday.
The planned autonomous container feeder ship, to be named YARA Birkeland, will cut emissions from road transport when it starts shipping products from Yara's Porsgrunn plant to Norway's Brevik and Larvik ports, the companies said. Brevik and Larvik ports are about 14 km and 26 km away from Porsgrunn respectively by road. The vessel is expected to reduce emissions and boost safety by removing up to 40,000 truck journeys per year.
YARA Birkeland will initially operate as a manned vessel before moving to remote operation in 2019, and later to fully-autonomous operations from 2020 onwards.
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Tanker Freight Rates to Stay Under Pressure Until 2019
The ongoing overcapacity in the tanker shipping market is projected to persist in view of sharp increase in deliveries, putting pressure on freight rates up until after 2019, according to global shipping consultant Drewry.
While tonnage deliveries are forecast to decline after 2017, given a weak demand outlook hope of recovery will hinge on the extent of scrapping activity, which will be influenced by the forthcoming IMO regulation on ballast water treatment.
"We expect the market to start a gradual recovery from 2020. For any recovery before 2020, demolitions need to be strong enough to keep fleet growth slower than demand growth," said Rajesh Verma, Drewry's lead analyst for tanker shipping.
In the existing fleet, there are about 20m dwt of vessel capacity aged 19 years or more. Drewry assumes that all of these vessels will be scrapped during 2017-22, as unattractive freight rates, poor employability and the additional cost associated with complying with the forthcoming IMO regulations on ballast water treatment will force owners to scrap them.
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Shippers Squeezing Margins 'Pushed Carriers Toward Bigger Ships and Alliances'
Container shipping lines yesterday shrugged off accusations that bigger ships and alliances would lead to less choice and less supply chain resilience, and argued that instead, shippers had brought these changes upon themselves.
Olaf Merk, of the International Transport Forum, explained to delegates at Transport Logistic in Munich how the recent changes in the liner industry could lead to a negative outcome for the supply chain.
"There is a pathway where bigger ships and vertical integration give rise to the concentration of ports and cargo, and they will have less leverage as the shipping lines get more powerful."
Mr Merk pointed to how consolidation had changed the market: in 2000, four carriers had 23% market share; while in 2016, four carriers held nearly 50%. In addition, fewer ports were served.
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Uber Boss Unveils Freight Initiative
 The supply chain industry is digesting news the Uber, the giant ride-hauling phenomenon, will shortly debut a trucking business. The company's CEO, Travis Kalanick, posted a photo over the weekend of a truck emblazoned with the logo Uber Freight on its side.
Last year, Uber bought Otto, a self-driving truck start-up, for $680m. It has been ensnared in a legal battle with Google over patents for self-driving vehicles. However, Kalanick's Twitter post is his biggest hint yet the Uber is ready to enter the trucking business.
The Uber development follows on from February's news that German logistics giant DB Schenker had bought a $25m stake in Texas-based uShip, an online platform that links shippers with truckers.
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Bunker Price Indications
*Prices are indications only. Please contact us for firm pricing.
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Weekly Tanker Update
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Clipper Oil offers a weekly update with the latest positions of the high-seas fuel tankers working throughout the Pacific.
To view the latest positions of our high-seas tankers, please click here.
To be added to our weekly high-seas tanker email distribution list, please click here.
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