WEEKEND RANT

  circa 1984

NEXTGEN DREAMING
AIN'T GOIN PAY THE OPEX & RELO BILLS
 
WHILE THE AUCTION ELIGIBLE LOSERS FRET ABOUT RELO FUNDS PAPERWORK OR A SERVICE WAIVER; THE INELIGIBLES, YOU AND ME, WELL, WE CAN'T SPEND TOO MUCH TIME THINKING ABOUT NEXTGEN FUTURES, OR IS IT, WE CAN'T SPEND ENOUGH TIME ON THEM!


Now don't get me wrong here.  Those relo eligible Class A's have a lot of   compliance to do, way more than LD's and TX's.  Time is money and people cost the most, so while those eligible Class A's worry about what to do, the rest of us just keep prodding along with whatever biz model we have.  And while the main studio rule could soon go away, the Class A's need to think real hard about their next play.  Every last one of them is suffering from not selling what they offered in the auction.  If they were in, they all wanted out, unless they had a specific strategy to channel share and stay in the biz. 

So we now find a heck of a lot of Class A's in the M&A game.  And a small army of brokers trying to get their biz.  Two Class A's sold just after the NAB show, and combined were priced at $0.48 per TV pop.  Way less than the average pre-auction speculation price of around $1.10 per TV pop, or the top pre-auction speculative price of $3.33 per TV pop for 3 Class A's with 7 million TV pops for $23.5 million, by a former Obama senior staffer trying to cash in on the auction. (Spoiler alert - none of them sold.) So welcome to low power secondary status license-ville.  But heck, you get relo funds if you need them, we hope you enjoy filling out the paperwork.

Class A's are now at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to getting back into the channel leasing business, the preferred business model of the major market stations. They will soon find out that it ain't all that easy to turn a profit, especially when there are no more Greenhill 2 dreams left to dream.  Now I am not trying to rain on their parade, especially if they planned ahead, or got out early and have pivoted and now have a new plan and investment horizon.  And some of them made a bundle, so who knows what moves next they will make.  

And what will be the role and the responsibilities of a 3.0 Class A?  While an LD or translator can easily make the case for a flashcut to the nextgen standard without any obligato for 1.0 legacy feed, a Class A may be very different. They may just have to do exactly what the other primary broadcasters have to do.  Maybe the play is to get that relo funding if you need it, and then convert back down to LPTV for the flexibility and freedom to just have to air the nextgen standard and not both.

Why would you give up permanence and go back to total secondary status?  Your 5 year bet to place is whether or not you believe that nextgen generates you more profit than the rigged model, of which you as a Class A get no taste.  However, as an LD nextgen licensee, you can join an LPTV content delivery network (CDN) and start to get paid for each and every Mbps you got.  Your customers are not the secondary networks, specialized networks, or start-up networks, no with a 3.0 CDN your customers are T-Mo, AT&T, Comcast, and the rest of the 5G world.  Oh, and you could save some for those major TV network affiliates feasting on the 1.0 rigged model who can not convert simply because of the economics of it all.

So the current Class A market comp post auction of $0.48/TV pop is just about right. Yes, you get to have your pre-auction coverage, some relo if you need it and can justify it.  But you may get stuck with providing two standard streams to stay compliant. And that may stop you from being considered for a whole lot of 3.0 M&A activity.  Then again, $0.48 is a bargain, hmmm, time to go shopping. Then again, it may be wise to let them sit around for a while longer and feel what it is like to not be part of the rigged system to soften up the pricing.

We declare that surviving LD are now worth more than a Class A, simply because a surviving LD can quickly adopted 3.0, and move into the final phase of deregulation, while a Class A is stuck in the old rigged model with all of the obligato, and none of the bennies. Whichever final channel assignment you get will be just as safe as what a Class A has. You got the ROD, and you got the expectation of renewal.  And none of that main studio rule, children's programming, and all of the filing paperwork.

The era of Class A superiority is over!  Their FCC obligato is now a big impediment for quickly taking advantage of 3.0, and that is where the action is going to be for a deregulated LPTV industry.

 
  HERE IS THE DIGITAL EDITION 
OF THE COALITION'S 2017 SHOWBOOK
FCC CHAIRMAN 100 DAY REPORT


 


CHAIRMAN PAI DISCUSSES HIS FIRST 100 DAYS
BRINGING THE BENEFITS OF THE DIGITAL AGE TO ALL AMERICANS

  --
WASHINGTON, May 4, 2017 - Federal Communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai will speak at noon on Friday about his first hundred days leading the agency and how that work fits into his broader vision.  The Chairman, who previously worked at the agency as both a Commissioner and attorney, has hit the ground running. Under his leadership, the Commission has already taken numerous actions to close the digital divide, promote innovation, protect consumers and public safety, remove outdated regulations, and improve agency transparency.


We will post the video when it becomes available...
SPOILER ALERT - NO, LPTV WAS NOT MENTIONED

LICENSEES & PERMITTEES ALERT 
75% OF THE COALITION'S BASIC R&D BUDGET COMES DIRECTLY 
FROM OFFICIAL FCC LICENSE AND PERMIT HOLDERS.  
MAKE SURE TO INCLUDE US EACH MONTH AS YOU WOULD 
A UTILITY, LIKE SOMETHING YOU NEED.  
STUDIES  -   SUPPORT
NEWS


REPACK PHASE ZERO
PRELIMINARY IMPACTS
FROM BIG FOUR NETWORKS, PBS, AND NUMEROUS RELIGIOUS CHANNELS TO GO DARK BEFORE THE REPACK EVEN STARTS!

So let's look at some facts about our newly named Phase Zero and the auction:

1.  41 Class A sold, out of over 400 which were part of the auction.  They sold for over $990 million, with most opting for going off the air, and only a few for channel sharing or moving to the V's.

2.  The remaining 400+ Class A's, plus the other 75+ which were not auction eligible, well they got a lot of work to do just to stay compliant, as we talked about in the above article.

3.  But let's look at the actual displacements in Phase Zero - what we find is that in those 30 TV DMA which had no auction eligible stations between 38-50 left to repack, and that these DMA were in 19 states, we can say that this is not just a regional set of facts, but nationwide.

>   41 LPTV and TX licensed and operating stations will need to clear off their spectrum as soon as T-Mo and others want to test and build their own services, in late 2017, early 2018, as stated in their corporate information releases.

>  These 41 stations have a combined 100+ content channels including ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, PBS affiliates, and many secondary and religious networks. This includes 19 big four networks, 37 subchannels of PBS programming, 20 secondary networks, and 20 channels of religious programming.  All gone before official Phase One even starts!

>  By being forced off the air more than a year from when the displacement window is opened and conducted, these 41 stations all run into the problem of being dark for more than a year.

>  So Phase Zero displacement costs are at least $5 million and could run to $8 million, depending on individual site build-out requirements.



WE URGE ALL DISPLACED BY THE AUCTION (38-50) PHASE ZERO BUILT OPERATING OR DARK, DIGITAL OR ANALOG LICENSEES, TO CONTACT US TO DISCUSS OUR REMOTE VIEWING OF YOUR NEAR TERM FUTURE.  


DISPLACEMENT ANALYSES ALERT

WE HAVE JUST COMPLETED THE FIRST TWO DMA STUDIES AND ALMOST HAVE DONE THE PHASE IMPACTS ANALYSES.  SO NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO ORDER THAT ALMOST FINAL DMA CONFIGURATION MODEL YOU NEED TO START PLANNING FOR YOUR DISPLACEMENT MOVES.  REMEMBER, IF A CP SURVIVED THE AUCTION, AND SURVIVES THE PRIMARIES REPACK, THEN THAT CP IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE LPTV DISPLACEMENT WINDOW.



IF YOU SURVIVED THE AUCTION AND REPACK,  AND ARE PRETTY SURE YOU WILL NOT BE DISPLACED,  THEN IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO HEAR THE 3.0 TALK.      
TIME TO LET THE FUTURE SLAP YOU UPSIDE YOUR HEAD. BAM!  YOU GOT FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE IF YOU TAKE IT...WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?

and a special thanks to our 2017
vendor sponsors, and member sponsors


 

LOTUS FILES TO KEEP DDSA STATUS AS GRANTED BY CONGRESS!




KHLM-LD HOUSTON                                                 KPHE-LD PHOENIX


COALITION COMMENTARY
A big shout out to Lotus for this filing about the all important DDSA, Digital Data Services Act.  LPTV led the way in 1999 to get this 12 licensee pilot project off the ground.   But it got delayed due to the lengthy time it took to conduct the rulemaking, the first internet bubble bursting, and the 9-11 tragedy and it early aftermath.  Not an auspicious beginning.  But in the 2009 rural filing window, more than 1500, say again, 1500 plus applications were made specifically for using rural LPTV spectrum for broadband.  But the FCC came knocking and then said a few years later that they wanted an incentive spectrum auction.  And so, all development using the DDSA as a launching point for a large series of service waivers has not happened.  Nor will it unless the Chairman wants it to.  Again, the DDSA granted 12 licensees TOTAL PERMANENT FLEXIBLE USE RIGHTS, with only a letter to the FCC notifying them that you are operating using X on a non-interfering  basis.

The Coalition has fought from day one to keep and expand these rules.  They will be discussed within the nextgen 3.0 rulemaking, and we need them to still be around when we attempt to help solve the digital divide in targeted rural counties.

Here are the DDSA rules, as authorized by Congress:


PDF


FINAL ANALYSIS
Flexible use authority is what the FCC did to LPTV and TV spectrum sold in the auction. With a magic wand our 6 MHz was transformed into this other stuff, and the laws of physics were throw aside, and here you go, low band LTE spectrum.  So, if you are a DDSA authorized station, your spectrum value is much higher than anything else you can due.  LPTV needs this in its toolbox for solving local spectrum problems.



 
 2017 Annual Meeting and Convention
May 19-21, 2017 Denver, CO


Holiday Inn Denver East-Stapleton
3333 Quebec St., Denver, CO 80207

MIKE WILL BE ATTENDING VIA A VIDEO CALL ON SATURDAY

WATCHTV WILL BE ATTENDING TO EXPLAIN THEIR PORTLAND ATSC 3.0 TESTS

 
 
BACK TO REGULAR BANNER ADS NEXT WEEK
   
COALITION DIRECTOR MIKE GRAVINO WAS INTERVIEWED ON THE GLOBAL NAB SHOW - M.E.T. LIVE 360 SPONSORED BY NEULION





 

NYC - MAY 16, 17 - REGISTRATION




LICENSEES AND PERMITTEES



If you would like to be part of our collective effort to make sure LPTV and TV translators are treated fairly in the Incentive Auction and channel repacking JOIN US today!


Mike Gravino
Director
LPTV Spectrum Rights Coalition
(202) 604-0747
lptvcoalition@gmail.com
http://www.lptvcoalition.com