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A summary of drought conditions based on the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar on April 25, 2017
Auburn University Water Resources Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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The ACF Basin has seen moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions spread across the central and south of Alabama and Georgia, while some extreme drought remains in the headwaters of the basin, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 4/18/2017). Note, the Southeast is the only area in the United States that currently has areas of Extreme Drought.
Please share the following highlights of the recent NIDIS ACF Drought Assessment Webinar with others who might be interested.
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, May 16, 2017, 1 pm ET.
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Current Drought Status
The ACF Basin drought conditions have gotten worse across most of Georgia, Alabama and the peninsula of Florida since our last webinar, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 4/18/2017)
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Rainfall Deficits over the past 60 days
Significant rainfall deficits have accrued over the past 60 days in south and central Alabama and Georgia as well as over most of Florida.
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Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, most of the southeastern U.S. has an equal probability of above-normal, normal, and below-normal (white areas).
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U.S. Drought Monitor
According to the most recent U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought conditions in most of Georgia and Alabama are forecast to develop or persist, while drought removal is likely for the Florida peninsula.
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Realtime Streamflow
Realtime streamflows show some improvement in north Alabama and Georgia because of recent rainfall, while in south Alabama, south Georgia and most of Florida, flows have declined
(
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Flint River at Albany Streamflow
Streamflow for the Flint River at Albany has recovered slightly, but remains in the below-normal range, with similar trends at Bainbridge and Carsonville; while flow at Griffin has risen to threshold normal levels in response to recent rains (see
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief: Current Brief:
Groundwater conditions have generally declined a bit over the past few weeks, with more wells dropping into the below-normal to low range in the ACF Basin (
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center favors below-normal streamflows for the Flint and Chattahoochee rivers for the next month.
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Due to persistent drought conditions in the upper ACF Basin, Lake Lanier remains in Zone 4 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 4 (dashed line) for the next few weeks.
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ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage
The ACF System Conservation Storage remains in Zone 3 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 3 (orange line) for the next few weeks.
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Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
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Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions have spread across central and south Alabama and Georgia. Some extreme drought remains in the headwaters of the ACF Basin.
*An a
ctive wildfire season continues in Florida and south Georgia.
*
Beneficial rainfall (2-4") fell over the Upper ACF Basin, lesser amounts over the Middle and Lower Basin in the past 2 weeks.
*The Middle and Lower ACF Basin and the peninsular Florida show
rainfall deficits of 4-6 inches over the past 60 days.
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7-day rainfall forecast appears mixed for the Southeast.
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Neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific, with some warming recently.
*It is still t
oo early to put much stock in forecast transition to El Nino.
*The
NOAA seasonal forecast favors a warm spring/summer and equal chances for above-normal/normal/below-normal rainfall in the Southeast.
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Florida is eagerly anticipating the onset of the summer rainy season.
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Real-time
streamflows
in the ACF Basin range from much-above-normal to low.
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28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega, show an increase in flow, but both stations remain at the much-below-normal range.
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28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are in the normal, to below-normal range.
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28-day average streamflows for the Flint River currently range from below-normal, to much-below-normal range
.
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Groundwater levels range from low to normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 month and 3 month streamflow forecasts favor below-normal flows for the ACF Basin. Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
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West Point is above its guide curve.
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Walter F. George has fallen below its guide curve.
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Buford still remains at below average levels but is expected to hold steady.
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Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
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The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 3 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 3 for the next few weeks.
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Acknowledgments and Resources:
- David Zierden, FSU
- Paul Anckorn, USGS
- Tom Littlepage, AL OWR
- Jeff Dobur, SERFC
- Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Eric Reutebuch, Auburn University
General drought information
General climate and El NiƱo information
Streamflow monitoring & forecasting
Groundwater monitoring
Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:
Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk
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