(Bloomberg News) Ended week at $58.47 prior week ended at $57.37 year ago was $53.60

 

NASPD (National Association of Steel Pipe Distributors) 

Annual Convention - February 15th - 17th, 2018

The NASPD 2018 Annual Convention will be held February 15th - 17th at The Westin Galleria Houston, 5060 W Alabama Street, Houston, Texas 77056

For details on the program speakers, attendees, or to register to attend, check out the web site at  www.naspd.com  

Speakers presentations from the NAPCA Summer Workshop ( August 17, 2017) can be obtained from the NAPCA web site at http://www.napca.com/conventions_workshops.cfm

Architecture Billings IndexArchitecture Billings Index

(11-21-17) Following a brief dip in revenue in September, billings at US architecture firms advanced in October. AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was 51.7 for the month, up from a 49.1 reading the prior month. Through 10 months of the year, the ABI has posted gains in eight. Both project inquiries and new design contracts also were positive for the month. Additionally, both of these indictors have posted readings in excess of 50-signifying an increase over the prior month-each month this year. The growing number of inquiries for future projects, coupled with gains in new projects coming into architecture firms, point to future advances in design billings. Regional business trends at architecture firms are becoming a bit more unbalanced. While firms in the Northeast have reported strong gains in billings in recent months, firms in the Midwest reported modest declines in September and October, and firms in the West have been hovering around the no-growth zone for the past few months. Firms in the South saw weak gains in October but generally have been reporting solid monthly progress throughout the year. Economy remains healthy; tax reform implications still uncertain: The economy remained healthy in the third quarter, apparently largely unfazed by the recent hurricanes and wildfires. The 3 percent growth in GDP largely matched the performance of the second quarter, with the increase for the year likely to be in the 2 to 2.5 percent range. That would be well in excess of the 1.5 percent growth the economy saw in 2016. However, the third quarter gains did little to help the construction sector. Both business investment in structures, and investment in new and existing homes, were reported to have declined by over 5 percent (at an annualized rate) during the quarter. Early fourth quarter economic indicators are looking positive. Our economy added 261,000 payroll positions on net in October, offsetting the weak performance in September that was held back by natural disasters. The economy is on track to add over two million payroll jobs this year. Given that the national unemployment rate is currently just 4.1 percent-its lowest rate since late 2000-a tight labor market continues to be a major concern for future growth. Tax reform is emerging as the next big unknown for the economy. While the construction sector and related design activity are not currently a major focus of these proposals, certainly this large sector of the economy would be impacted by any major changes in the tax system. A reduction in the corporate tax rate of the magnitude proposed would likely increase business spending and investment, with spending on facilities likely to benefit from such a change. On the other hand, current tax reform proposals likely will reduce investment in the residential sector. A decline in the ability of homeowners to deduct mortgage interest or local property taxes would make owning a home more expensive for many households, particularly those with upper-end homes. Increasing the standard deduction also would reduce the potential benefit of these interest and property tax deductions. Firms expecting more growth next year; staffing seen as a key concern: On the whole, US architecture firms are reporting solid business conditions at their firms. As the year winds down, over half of firms are projecting revenue growth of at least 5 percent for the year, while fewer than a quarter are projecting a decline of 5 percent or more from 2016 levels. Average growth across all firms is estimated to be just over 5 percent for the year. Next year is projected to produce somewhat slower growth overall but still expected to be fairly positive, with growth across all firms estimated to average just under 3 percent. Almost half of firms expect revenue to grow by at least 5 percent next year, while 21 percent are projecting a decline of at least 5 percent. Given that almost half of firms expect fairly significant revenue growth next year, it's not surprising that a comparable share also expect to add staff to accommodate this growth. However, those firms expecting to add staff in 2018 are generally anticipating that to be a difficult proposition. Over 40 percent of firms think that it will be extremely difficult to add qualified architectural positions in 2018, and an additional 51 percent feel that it will be somewhat difficult. Facing difficulty in adding staff is not seen to be a short-term problem. Among all firms, even those not looking to add staff in the near term-over three-quarters feel that there may be shortages of architectural staff in their area over the next few years to handle the needs of firms looking to expand. This month, Work-on-the-Boards participants are saying: "Heading into the end of the year, we project steady work and multiple new project starts at a time we have historically expected work to taper off." 23-person firm in the South, mixed specialization "We are seeing smaller projects than in past years, so our operational approach will have to change in order to maintain profitability." 24-person firm in the Northeast, institutional specialization "The increase in contracts and inquiries is a direct response to the fire disaster in Sonoma County. Prior to that, I was going to stay small; I am now trying to hire." 2-person firm in the West, commercial/industrial specialization. "Business conditions are improving, with more access to capital available." 13-person firm in the Midwest, institutional specialization.

Conference Board - Consumer Confidence Index

(09-26-17) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved marginally in August, declined slightly in September. The Index now stands at 119.8 (1985=100), down from 120.4 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased from 148.4 to 146.1, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 101.7 last month to 102.2. The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 18. "Consumer confidence decreased slightly in September after a marginal improvement in August," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Confidence in Texas and Florida, however, decreased considerably, as these two states were the most severely impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Despite the slight downtick in confidence, consumers' assessment of current conditions remains quite favorable and their expectations for the short-term suggest the economy will continue expanding at its current pace." Consumers' assessment of current conditions moderated in September. Those saying business conditions are "good" decreased slightly from 34.5 percent to 33.9 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" increased from 13.2 percent to 13.8 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market was also somewhat less upbeat. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" declined from 34.4 percent to 32.6 percent, however, those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased marginally from 18.4 percent to 18.1 percent. Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook was somewhat better in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose slightly from 19.8 percent to 20.2 percent, but those expecting business conditions to worsen increased from 8.0 percent to 9.9 percent. Consumers' outlook for the labor market was more favorable than in August. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 16.8 percent to 19.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose marginally from 13.2 percent to 13.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement increased moderately from 19.9 percent to 20.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline was virtually unchanged at 8.3 percent.

Conference Board - Leading Economic Index

(11-20-17) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 1.2 percent in October to 130.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.4 percent increase in August. "The US LEI increased sharply in October, as the impact of the hurricanes dissipated," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The growth of the LEI, coupled with widespread strengths among its components, suggests that solid growth in the US economy will continue through the holiday season and into the new year." The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in October to 116.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and no change in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 125.5 (2010 = 100), following no change in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

Durable Goods - Shipments and New Orders

(11-22-17)  New Orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $2.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $236.0 billion, the U.S. Census -bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.2 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $3.5 billion or 4.3 percent to $77.1 billion. Shipments: Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $241.0 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent September increase. Primary metals, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $19.9 billion. Unfilled Orders: Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.5 billion or virtually unchanged to $1,134.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent September increase. Inventories: Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $404.1 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent September increase. Primary metals, also up fifteen of the last sixteen months, led the increase, $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $33.9 billion. Capital Goods: Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October decreased $3.4 billion or 4.5 percent to $72.3 billion. Shipments decreased $1.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $72.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $705.2 billion. Inventories increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $179.7 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in October decreased $1.1 billion or 9.6 percent to $9.9 billion. Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $10.9 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $142.3 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $23.6 billion. Revised September Data: Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $479.1 billion (revised from $478.5 billion); shipments, $480.9 billion (revised from $480.4 billion); unfilled orders, $1,135.1 billion (revised from $1,135.0 billion) and total inventories, $660.6 billion (revised from $660.8 billion).

Gross Domestic Product - 3rd quarter (Second Estimate)

(11-29-17) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent (revised) in the second. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second quarter. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a downturn in imports, and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in exports. Current-dollar GDP increased 5.5 percent, or $259.0 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $19,509.0 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $192.3 billion. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate.

National Association of Home Builders - New Home Sales

(09-26-17) Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August fell 3.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units from an upwardly revised July reading, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the lowest sales reading since December 2016. However, year-to-date, new home sales are 7.5 percent above their level over the same period last year. "This month's report is another reminder that builders need to manage rising supply-side costs to meet consumer demand for affordably priced homes," said Granger MacDonald, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. "The year-to-date growth shows that new home sales are continuing to make consistent, long-term gains," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "However, we may see more volatility in the next few months as communities affected by the recent hurricanes experience construction delays and other economic disruptions." The inventory of new homes for sale was 284,000 in August, which is a 6.1-month supply at the current sales pace. Regionally, new home sales remained unchanged in the Midwest. Sales fell 2.6 percent in the Northeast, 2.7 percent in the West and 4.7 percent in the South.

NAHB Builder Confidence

(11-18-17) Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to a level of 70 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This was the highest report since March, and the second highest on record since July 2005. "November's builder confidence reading is close to a post-recession high - a strong indicator that the housing market continues to grow steadily," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. "However, our members still face supply-side constraints, such as lot and labor shortages and ongoing building material price increases." "Demand for housing is increasing at a consistent pace, driven by job and economic growth, rising homeownership rates and limited housing inventory," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "With these economic fundamentals in place, we should see continued upward movement of the single-family housing market as we close out 2017." Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Two out of the three HMI components registered gains in November. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 77 and the index measuring buyer traffic increased two points to 50. Meanwhile, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped a single point to 77. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast jumped five points to 54 and the South rose one point to 69. Both the West and Midwest remained unchanged at 77 and 63, respectively.

Housing Starts and Permitting

(10-18-17) Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 4.5 percent (±1.6 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,272,000 and is 4.3 percent (±1.7 percent) below the September 2016 rate of 1,270,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 819,000; this is 2.4 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised August figure of 800,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 360,000 in September. Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,127,000. This is 4.7 percent (±8.1 percent)* below the revised August estimate of 1,183,000, but is 6.1 percent (±8.8 percent)* above the September 2016 rate of 1,062,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 829,000; this is 4.6 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the revised August figure of 869,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 286,000. Housing Completions: Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,109,000. This is 1.1 percent (±12.4 percent)* above the revised August estimate of 1,097,000 and is 10.3 percent (±11.9 percent)* above the September 2016 rate of 1,005,000. Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 781,000; this is 4.6 percent (±11.4 percent)* above the revised August rate of 747,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 322,000.

Steel Service Centers - Shipments and Inventory

(11-15-17)  Substantial Shipment Growth in October: October shipments increased over 2016 levels for steel and aluminum in both the U.S. and Canada. inventory positions improved across the board as well. U.S. Service Center Activity: U.S. service center steel shipments in October 2017 increased 10.7% from October, 2016. Steel product inventories increased 5.6% from October a year ago. U.S. service center shipments of aluminum products in October increased by 16.8% from the same month in 2016.  Inventories of aluminum products increased 5.4% from October a year ago. Canadian Service Center Activity: Canadian service center shipments of steel products in October 2017 increased by 9.8% from October 2016. Steel product inventories increased 8.3% from October a year ago. Canadian service center aluminum shipments in October increased 7.0% from the same month in 2016. Inventories of aluminum products decreased 2.0% from October a year ago.

The Employment Situation

(11-03-17) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care. Household Survey Data: The unemployment rate edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 281,000 to 6.5 million. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.7 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons has decreased by 1.1 million. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.6 percent) and Whites (3.5 percent) declined in October. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), Blacks (7.5 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change. In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million and accounted for 24.8 percent of the unemployed. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 62.7 percent in October but has shown little movement on net over the past 12 months. The employment-population ratio declined by 0.2 percentage point over the month to 60.2 percent, after increasing by 0.3 percentage point in September. The employment-population ratio is up by 0.5 percentage point over the year. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 369,000 to 4.8 million in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. Over the past 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has decreased by 1.1 million. In October, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 524,000 discouraged workers in October, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.0 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Retail Sales - Advanced Estimates

(10-13-17) Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.9 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2016. Total sales for the July 2017 through September 2017 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2017 to August 2017 percent change was revised from down 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.1 percent)*. Retail trade sales were up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2017, and up 4.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Gasoline Stations were up 11.4 percent (±1.4 percent) from September 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 10.7 percent (±2.1 percent) from last year.