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A summary of drought conditions based on the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar on March 21, 2017
Auburn University Water Resources Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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The ACF Basin drought conditions have not changed much across north Georgia and north Alabama since our last webinar, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 3/14/2017).
Please share the following highlights of the recent NIDIS ACF Drought Assessment Webinar with others who might be interested.
Our next briefing will be Tuesday, April 11, 2017, 1 pm ET.
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Current Drought Status
Drought conditions persist, and have remained relatively unchanged across north Georgia and north Alabama since our last webinar, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 3/14/2017).
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Rainfall Deficits for the Past 90 Days
Significant rainfall deficits persist in north Alabama and more-so in north Georgia over the past 90 days.
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Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, most of the southeastern U.S. has an equal probability of above-normal, normal, and below-normal (white areas).
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U.S. Drought Monitor
According to the most recent U.S Monthly Drought Outlook, areas of drought in north Georgia and north Alabama have transitioned from 'drought remains but improves' to 'drought persists'.
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Realtime Streamflow
Realtime streamflows continue to suffer because of lack of significant rainfall, with several streams remaining or dropping to below-normal to low (red and brown dots), particularly in central to north AL and GA, while south AL and GA streams are faring a bit better, mostly in the normal to below-normal range
(
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Flint River at Bainbridge Streamflow
Streamflow for the Flint River at Bainbridge has continued to drop significantly from above-normal levels to below-normal flow, with similar trends at Albany and Carsonville; while flow at Griffin has dropped to record low levels (see
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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Groundwater Conditions
Previous Brief: Current Brief:
Groundwater conditions have remained relatively unchanged over the past few weeks, ranging widely from low (red) to above-normal (light blue) in the ACF Basin (
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
).
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One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center favors below-normal streamflows for the Flint and Chattahoochee rivers for the next month.
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ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage
Although the Flood Storage is in Zone 2, the ACF System Conservation Storage remains in Zone 3 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 3 (orange line) for the next few weeks.
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Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
*There have been only minor changes to the U.S. Drought monitor over the past few weeks, severe and extreme drought persists across northern AL and GA.
*We suffered a m
idweek freeze last week, with significant damage to peach and blueberry crops.
*An a
ctive wildfire season continues in central and south Florida.
*
1 - 2.5 inches of rain fell over upper ACF Basin over the past 2 weeks, just keeping up with normal, no strides in making up deficits.
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90-day deficits remain significant in upper ACF Basin.
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7-day precipitation forecast is more favorable for upper ACF Basin.
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La Nina conditions have dissipated in the Pacific.
*It is still t
oo early to put much stock in forecast transition to El Nino.
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NOAA forecasts are free of La Nina influences, favoring a warm spring and equal chances for rainfall.
*The r
echarge season is winding down, next two months are climatologically warmer and drier.
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Real-time
streamflows
in the ACF Basin range from low to normal, with a majority of stations in the low to much-below-normal range.
*
28-day average streamflows into Lake Lanier, as indicated by Chattahoochee River at Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega, remain at new record seasonal low flows.
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28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are in the much-below-normal range, with a new record seasonal low flow observed at Chattahoochee River at Atlanta.
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28-day average streamflows for the Flint River currently range from below-normal, to much-below-normal range, with a new record seasonal low flow observed at Flint River near Griffin.
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Groundwater levels range from low to normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 month and 3 month streamflow forecasts favor below-normal flows for the ACF Basin. Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
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Buford still remains below average but so far is holding steady.
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Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
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The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 3 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 3 for the next few weeks.
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Acknowledgments and Resources:
- David Zierden, FSU
- Paul Ankcorn, USGS
- Jeff Dobur, SERFC
- Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Eric Reutebuch, Auburn University
General drought information
General climate and El NiƱo information
Streamflow monitoring & forecasting
Groundwater monitoring
Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:
Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk
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