CFA Society Pittsburgh Newsletter #24

Welcome to the 24th edition of our newsletter! In this newsletter, Chris Wiles provides highlights of our recent events and upcoming programs. As VP-Programs, Chris has put together an exciting and diverse set of programs reflecting your preferences based on a member survey each year!

Mark your calendars for our next quarterly social networking event - on March 22nd, we will hold our next event at Olive or Twist. The event will take place from 5:00 to 8:00pm. Make sure you RSVP! Another event you do not want to miss occurs on May 17th for our annual Endowments and Foundations Conference! The 2016 conference brought together over 150 individuals for our largest event ever.

Our financial literacy efforts continue as we present for the Allegheny Intermediate Unit this month and our financial plan competition deadline occurs later this month. On the college front, we will crown a winner of the Research Challenge competition this week. Teams are conducting a valuation of F.N.B. for the opportunity to compete in the Americas competition in Seattle in early April.

We value of our volunteer base - we have an active society because we have active members. If you want to get more involved, please do not hesitate to reach out! We always have a place for volunteers! As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate at contact me at [email protected] .

- Dr. Greg Filbeck, CFA, FRM, CAIA, CIPM, PRM

President, CFA Society Pittsburgh

Upcoming Events

Demographics, Healthcare & Sustainability

Please join us on

Wednesday, March 8, 2017 for a special look at Demographics, Healthcare & Sustainability with Michael Falk, CFA and Partner of the Focus Consulting Group.

Today's economic growth challenges will become greater in the future because of the world's aging population, fertility trends, and current entitlement policies. Those challenges could be overcome, however, with thoughtful public policies and a culture that fosters responsibility and appreciation. Michael Falk's CFA Institute Research Foundation Book, Let's All Learn How to Fish... to Sustain Long-Term Economic Growth , reconsiders what makes us "healthy, wealthy, and wise." It focuses on how we might reimagine health care, retirement, and education policies to usher in a new ERA (... from Entitlement to Responsibility with Appreciation) of sustainable long-term economic growth.

The Focus Consulting Group helps investment leaders leverage their talent. Mr. Falk specializes with helping investment teams improve their processes and execution techniques as well as helping firms with their strategic planning. In his past, Michael was a Chief Strategist at Mauka Capital, LLC, a global macro hedge fund, as well as a CIO in charge of manager due diligence and asset allocation for a multi-billion-dollar advisory practice. His background includes extensive asset allocation research, portfolio development expertise and deep working understanding of both behavioral finance and retirement issues.

Michael is also part of the CFA Institute's Approved Speaker List, and teaches on behalf of the CFA Society of Chicago in their Claritas program. In the past, he was a contributing member in the Financial Management Association's (FMA) practitioner demand driven academic research initiative (PDDARI) group, as well as taught at DePaul University as adjunct faculty in their Certified Financial Planner (CFP) Certificate Program. He is frequently quoted in the financial press. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Retirement Counselor (CRC) designations

The first 40 to signup will get a free copy of Michael's book.

The link to signup is Here

A Quantitative, Technical, and Behavioral View of the Markets

Please join us on

Wednesday, April 12, 2017 as we welcome John Kosar, CMT a 30 year veteran of the global financial markets .

John spent the first half of his career on the

trading floor of the Chicago futures exchanges, where he had the opportunity to learn

how the US financial markets work from the inside out. This experience, early in his career, became the foundation for his unique analysis, understanding of inter-market relationships, and global perspective. John incorporates a diverse and comprehensive

blend of technical and quantitative metrics that tend to be more intuitive and forward-looking than the typical Wall Street approach.

John is frequently quoted in the financial press in both the US and abroad including The Wall Street Journal,

MarketWatch.com, Barron's, Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com, and Reuters. He can regularly be seen on U.S. financial television including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg, and is a frequent speaker at financial seminars and events across the country presented by organizations including the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), the Market Technicians Association (MTA), and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

John has been consistently recognized as a top U.S. financial market analyst throughout his career and was

awarded the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in 1999. John served as Vice President of the

Market Technicians Association (MTA) from 2004 to 2006 and was a member of its Board of Directors from

2002-2006. During his career he has been an analyst and trader for Asbury Research, Shearson American

Express, NatWest Markets, Greenwich Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, and Bianco Research.

CFA Society & Boy Scouts

The CFA Society of Pittsburgh will sponsor Boy Scout Personal Management Merit Badge on Saturday, May 6th.

Location: Pennsylvania Trolley Museum, Washington, PA.

Please contact the museum for more information, and to register. Space is limited.

[email protected] 724-228-9256.

Highlights from Recent Events

Annual Stock Pickers Luncheon

On Wednesday, February 8, 2017 we had our annual Stock Pickers luncheon.

This event continues to be a Society favorite, where we get to showcase the stock picking prowess of our own members.

Last years winner was Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors with an average total return of 66.90%. And our average return from all 15 stock picks was an outstanding 32.73%.

Here are the picks from this year's contestants:

Malcolm Polley: MYGN, FII, TGI

Shawna Aufman: FFIV, PYPL, SYNA

Mike Halloran: SLB, JPM, JNJ

Mark Rodgers: WSM, ALCO, PKI

Kim Caughey: VZ, URBN, VFC

Good Luck to all!

Market Outlook Dinner

On Wednesday, January 11, 2017 we held our annual Market Outlook dinner at The River's Club.

As usual we had a great audience with about 175 attendees! We also were fortunate enough to have five sponsors this year:

American Century Investments

FactSet

Fidelity Investments

PNC Wealth Management

T.Rowe Price

Every year investors are faced with a myriad of risks and opportunities, but for some reason 2017 seems a bit more uncertain than others. Fortunately we had a great panel to field our questions and offer their insights.

Our Panelists:

Ed Clissold, CFA - Ned Davis Research Group

Ed Clissold is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group.

Ron Muhlenkamp, CFA - Muhlenkamp & Co

Ron is the founder and president of Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc.

Bill Stone, CFA - PNC Asset Management Group

Bill Stone is executive vice president and chief investment strategist for PNC Asset Management Group.

Richard Weiss - American Century Investors Richard Weiss is senior vice president and senior portfolio manager for American Century Investments.

Our Moderator

Chris Wiles, CFA - Rockhaven Capital Mgmt.

Chris Wiles is the founder and chief investment officer of Rockhaven.

The first question of the night was whether or not the panelists agreed with the consensus view that the S&P 500 would appreciate this year by 5.5%. Both Ed and Bill thought the S&P would hit 2,400 for a 7% gain, while both Rich and Ron thought the 5.5% gain was fair.

All panelists felt that interest rates were headed higher as inflation begins to accelerate.

Ed prefers mid-cap stocks for 2017. He doesn't feel they've run as much as small-cap and that they will benefit the most from lower tax rates.

Ron believes that computer hardware companies will benefit from increases in capital spending. He also likes Federated Investors as his single best idea.

Bill thinks that overseas markets will outperform the U.S., especially Japan. He also prefers dividend growers over dividend yielders.

Rich feels that the best bet for 2017 would be to buy Volatility, especially VIX Futures.

Overall I'd say that our panelists were rather hopeful that the new administration would be much more business friendly, but that a lot of this is currently reflected in valuations. Some upside possible, but limited.

Annual Partner Sponsors

CFA Society Pittsburgh would like to thank its partnership sponsors for their support of the Society.

GOLD

Silver

Stock Pickers Contest

Update - 2/08/17 - 2/28/17

Contestant	Avg.	STK 1	STK 2	STK 3
S&P 500	3.12%
Malcolm Polley	8.06%	MYGN 15.92%	FII 6.64%	TGI 1.62%
Kim Caughey	2.36%	VZ 2.81%	URBN -2.18%	VFC 6.44%
Mike Halloran	4.08%	SLB -0.58%	JPM 5.01%	JNJ 7.80%
Shawna Aufman	1.30%	FFIV 2.66%	PYPL 3.52%	SYNA -2.27%
Mark Rodgers	1.51%	WSM 4.64%	ALCO -2.85%	PKI 2.73%