Here we are in February and everyone in the transportation industry including the experts are still trying to figure out future truck capacity and predict pricing. While post-holiday capacity throughout the U.S. seems to be more than adequate, we're still wondering what's right around the corner when spring and summer shipping volumes begin to increase. Looking even further down the road, what will the effects of new federal regulations if/when they are enforced have on our small to mid-sized carriers?

I have heard predictions from my peers and read many articles from industry consultants that expect OTR rate increases for 2017 falling anywhere between 2-8%. They predict less future capacity due to several factors affecting our industry. The driver shortage is very real folks, especially for carriers participating in the longer haul lanes. Drivers have many more options and prefer to be home at night or at least home more often than they were in years past. The ATA estimates the average age of current drivers to be 49 years old and that the industry will need more than 96,000 new drivers annually for the next 10 years to keep pace with consumer spending. Adding to the mix new regulations such as HOS, ELDs, and Insurance companies canceling policies that do not have speed limiters and so on will have a negative effect on our capacity. 

All of the points mentioned above have or will have negative effects on capacity and the potential to drive up rates. I'm wondering though if they will be offset a bit by changes in the retail market brought on by the popularity of e-commerce. It seems that many major retail chains including Macy's, Sears, Office Depot are closing a significant number of stores. While small package services like UPS and FedEx demand certainly has increased, you would expect that the e-commerce effect on T/L demand will decline a bit for the dry van sector of the business, at least for now. As Amazon and companies alike continue to grow in popularity some part of that freed capacity will be utilized again especially for carriers offering team service.