Greetings from the Grand Strand!
New year! New president! New national college football champion!
Okay, maybe that last one doesn't belong with the first two events but
I'm just proud of my Clemson Tigers
and can't resist boasting a bit.
Although every year is different,
most years are not so different in terms of our real estate market patterns.
A year ago, my December newsletter included graphs showing
monthly sales and listing patterns for oceanfront condo sales. I've updated those graphs and the pattern for 2016 was similar to the one from previous years - with a few twists.
The following graph shows monthly oceanfront condo sales (by contract date) for 2013 through October 2016.
Sales activity in 2016 pretty much tracked the same as the previous three years. January sales roughly doubled December sales. February through May was the busiest time of the year. There was a sales dip in the summer followed by an uptick in the fall. The dip and the uptick seemed to come earlier than usual this year. Although this graph is based on oceanfront condo sales, I suspect that similar patterns would show up for any resort and second home properties in our area.
One interesting feature was the sharp decline in sales in October compared to other years. I attribute this to the "election effect".
I've noticed that,
immediately prior to a major election, buyers simply freeze. As you will see in another graph, a similar sharp drop occurred with new listings.
Through the years I have also observed that,
after the election (no matter who wins) buyers and sellers go ahead and move forward with whatever they were planning to do prior to the election
, regardless of whether their preferred candidates win or not.
Incidentally, the reason totals are not included for November and December of 2016 is that contract dates are not reported in our MLS system until after a sale has closed. Since it sometimes takes 60 days or more for a sale to close, data from the previous 60 to 90 days is not reliable since it omits many new contracts.
The following graph shows monthly oceanfront condo listings by MLS input date from 2013 until the end of 2016.
The patterns for listings are actually very similar to the patterns for sales
, although the differences between monthly totals are not quite as pronounced.
Going back to the previous graph, it's not surprising that the monthly numbers of purchases are highest in the spring
. Potential buyers have "beach fever" after being cooped up during the winter and investors like to time their purchases to maximize rental incomes by closing right as peak rental season starts. I was surprised, however, to find that
sellers followed the same pattern and listed predominant-ly in the early part of the year. Common sense would lead you to believe the opposite. Here's my hypothesis
from last year's newsletter.
"Just chalk it up to human nature. I think most people put off making any big decisions during the long holiday season and then play catch-up during the first few months of the next year."
So what to do with this information?
If you want to buy or sell, there won't be a better time to do it than now. Here's why.
The influx of new listings gives buyers more potential choices than at any other time of the year.
The large number of buyers actively looking for properties gives sellers more opportunities to find buyers than at any other time during the year.
The information on these charts represents the aggregate of our entire market.
In reality, every building, every resort, even specific floor plans within buildings, follow different paths based on many factors. You need expert advice based on your individual situation to make your best decision. Please contact me if you would like to discuss either purchasing or selling.
That's it for now. Be sure to check out the market reports and my Best Buys.
See you at the beach!
This monthly newsletter feature shares press releases that caught my eye in the previous month.
