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This Month's Issue:
Planning for Growth |
Municipal Growth Forecasting Model Results
The City of St. Albert recently participated in a collaborative project with the University of Alberta School of Business to create a communitygrowth forecasting model. The project involved determining the factors that correlate strongly with St. Albert growth, and using them to predict future new housing starts, commercial building space, and industrial building space. This forecasting model gives an idea about how St. Albert might grow, given current economic assumptions about high level trends over the next few years.
With respect to St. Albert new housing starts, research and analysis determined the following seven economic variables allowed for accurate forecasting; St. Albert population increase, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area housing starts, Alberta gross domestic product, price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, Alberta unemployment rate, Canadian 5-year fixed interest rate, and the average Edmonton home price. By inputting government and bank forecasts for these seven variables over the next three years, St. Albert is projected to have 324 new housing starts in 2016, 416 housing starts in 2017, and 389 housing starts in 2018. This model will grow more accurate as time goes on and more data points are utilized in the fit. It can also be updated annually to reflect the latest forecasts for the predictor variables.
For forecasting St. Albert's commercial building space growth, the following economic variables were found to have strong predictive power; Alberta labour force growth, St. Albert annexed land, Alberta gross domestic product, price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, Alberta total exports, and Alberta's consumer price index (inflation). Using third party forecast data for these variables, St. Albert is forecast to have about 100,000 square feet of growth annually over the next three years.
When creating a predictive model for St. Albert's industrial building growth, the following variables were determined to be good predictors; St. Albert population increase, Alberta gross domestic product, Canadian household expenditures, Federal government non-budget transactions, and Federal government deficit/surplus spending. Using third party forecasts for these predictors, St. Albert's industrial building space growth is projected at around 190,000 square feet annually for the next three years. It is interesting to note that the new Alberta Gaming and Liquor Commission warehouse in South Campbell is estimated to be around 473,000 square feet, and the model does not do a good job of predicting large, one-off events such as that. This implies the annual growth predicted by the model could be in addition to the AGLC warehouse growth in the coming years.
The true power of any analytical tool comes from the enhanced decision making power it provides the user. The Economic Development Division at the City of St. Albert is utilizing the results of this new tool to inform their project plans for the upcoming years, to maximize the impact and efficiency of future business and resident attraction programs. For the full report on the Municipal Growth Forecasting Model, visit the
Investor Toolkit page.
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Upcoming Events
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What Does the Carbon Levy Mean for You?
The announcement of a new Carbon Levy by the provincial government has many business owners questioning the ramifications on their operations. Beginning January 1st, 2017, the government will apply a carbon levy to all fuels that emit greenhouse gases when combusted. The levy will be scaled in two phases, first being applied at $20/tonne and rising to $30/tonne one year later on January 1st, 2018.
Before assessing the potential impact on businesses and operations, it is important to note how the levy will be applied. The levy will apply to diesel, gasoline, natural gas, propane, and coal. It will not apply directly to consumer purchases of electricity, though large scale emitters such as electricity providers will be levied and are likely to pass some of that burden on to consumers. The government estimates that these "indirect" costs of the levy, essentially the heightened cost of goods and services, at around $50-$70 per household, a number that will be amplified for business owners who have a higher rate of consumption than the average household. The levy will also not apply to marked fuels for agricultural purposes, in an effort to reduce the impact the levy will have on farmers and food prices. Finally, there are a few additional exemptions from the levy: industrial cases where fuel is used in the process but not combusted, purchase of fuel on First Nations reserves for use by the band or band members, fuel sold for export, inter-jurisdictional flights, and biofuels. It is important to note that municipalities are not listed among the exempt, and that this could result in an increase in property taxes to shoulder the financial burden.
The above price grid displays the anticipated price increase for the various fuels upon which the levy will be imposed. Additionally, to help to mitigate the initial rise in costs seen by small business owners, the small business corporate income tax rate will be reduced from 3% to 2% on January 1st, 2017- a total savings of around $865 million over the next 5 years. This could actually prove to be a net gain for some businesses that are less carbon intensive, as they will see a reflected decrease in their tax rate without paying more for their normal goods and services.
Further effort to reduce the impact on individuals and families comes in the form of carbon rebates, which the government will calculate directly from individual income tax returns.
The government estimates that 60% of Albertans will be eligible for a full rebate of the carbon levy via this program, offsetting the direct impact on low-income citizens. The funds collected by the levy also represent some opportunity for businesses in the green infrastructure and renewable energy sectors, where the government plans to invest the levy in an effort to diversify Alberta's economy. The carbon levy represents a lot of uncertainty for the businesses and residents of Alberta, but it is certainly poised to change our economy.
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Development Update - Millennium Park, Part of DARP
The Millennium Park Placemaking Design Concept project is approaching its final stage; the project will eventually see the currently underutilized Millennium Park redeveloped into a focal gathering space in Downtown St. Albert. On October 5th 2016, the Refined Design Concept for Millennium Park was presented to the public and city administration (see image). The Refined Design Concept incorporated feedback received on three previously presented design concept options. A video presentation providing background information on the Refined Design Concept is available on the City of St Albert's website (
https://stalbert.ca/dev/downtown/millennium-park-design/).
This project is part of the approved
Downtown Area Redevelopment Plan (DARP) (
https://stalbert.ca/dev/downtown/darp/ ) that will increase urban livability, stimulate investment, and increase business retention and expansion in Downtown St. Albert. Projects such as the St. Anne Promenade and Roundabout, as well as the AMACON urban village are part of this plan to energize Downtown.
A Final Design Concept and accompanying report for Millennium Park will be presented to City Council in early 2017, and the public will have an opportunity to provide feedback on this concept for the weeks leading up to the Council presentation.
For more information on the Millennium Park Placemaking Design Concept project, please contact:
Yuli Siao
Senior Planner |
Planning & Development
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Start a Business @ The Collective - Apply now!
The Collective Marketplace is a space where young adult can flourish into entrepreneurs in a safe environment.
We provide young entrepreneurs a place to start and grow their business and mentorship from successful business partners who are passionate about seeing new retail thrive.
Vendor Opportunities
Apply to:
Ben Huising
Youth Asset Development Coordinator,
Community & Social Development
The Collective
#100 - 43 St. Thomas St.
Ph: 780.470.2059
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Business Spotlight On... Saviour's Cafe & Bistro
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| Location on Perron St. (formerly Vinyl Rock Cafe) |
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Don't be surprised upon entering
Saviour's Cafe & Bistro if you welcomed with a hug and a warm smile by its owner,
Solo Debesay. The owner of this new Ethiopian restaurant hopes to recreate the inviting, family-centred culture that he has fondly grown up with. Although there are standard tables and chairs you can sit in, he also has a traditional room setup where occupants can lounge in comfy upholstered chairs centred around a serving table and coffee roaster.
"Where I am from, only the rich people could afford a TV. So this is how families would spend time together." He tells us.
Ethiopian coffee is a delight for caffeine aficionados and accounts for 3% of the global coffee market. In fact, it's where arabica beans come from.
At Saviour's, coffee becomes a celebratory event to satisfy the senses.
It is encouraged that you let the server know when you first come in if you want Ethiopian coffee so that the process can begin.
First, a fresh bag of arabica beans is shown to you and roasted while you wait. Then the server will come, typically in traditional garments, and bring the still-roasting beans for you to see, and more importantly, smell. Finally, the coffee is served in a clay pot, along with burning incense as well as popcorn to snack on. The end product has a smooth flavor with a ginger afternote.
Along with their signature drink, the cafe also serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The recipes are derived from Solo's culture as well as his experience in Sudan and Egypt. Solo immigrated to Canada in 2004 after escaping the corruption and turbulence of Ethiopia and other African countries. Working around 20 hours a day to help support his family, Solo eventually saved enough to start his own trucking company, and later found opportunity to also start a janitorial services company.
"I don't take anything for granted. Every day I am thankful to be here and have these opportunities for a better life. I chose the name 'Saviour's' because I feel that I was saved by being able to come here."
Solo said that he picked St. Albert for his cafe after experiencing the city whilst performing deliveries for local grocers.
"It's very peaceful here--good atmosphere, low crime, and looks very clean!" He exclaims.
Customer satisfaction is the number one priority for this entrepreneur. After taking over the location of the former
Vinyl Rock Cafe, Solo worked with the owner to learn how to prepare some of their foods including pizzas, and paninis so that he could still serve the previous customers that enjoyed those offerings while bringing something new and unique to the Perron District. He stresses that t
he pricing and portions are also very reasonable.
"My mother was very generous, so I like to incorporate that when I serve you".
When asked if he had anything to say to our readers, Solo stressed the importance of making time to be with family and friends.
"Too many times we wait until it's too late to say the good things we want to about someone. We should be giving praise and compliments while they are still around and enjoying their company."
The Spotlight on Business is a monthly feature wherein we highlight a local business and learn more about what they do and how they positively contribute to the identity and economy of St. Albert. If you, or someone you know, would like to be featured in a future issue, please contact hpacheco@stalbert.ca with a brief description of the organization.
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New Businesses in St. Albert
Commercial/Industrial Businesses
Arashi-Do Martial Arts 780-217-0059
135 - 44 Riel Dr
Martial Arts School
Empire Salon 780-458-0002
B - 28 St. Anne St
High-End Boutique Hair Salon
FHG Contracting Inc 780-934-4115
140 - 6 Renault Cres
Staining Company that does Cabinet Refinishing
Grey Ghost Gear of Canada 780-625-2102
C - 21 Rayborn Cres
Defense Sector Equipment - Machining and Distribution
Grey Ghost Precision of Canada 780-625-2102
C - 21 Rayborn Cres
Machining - Firearms
Gym Rat 780-569-0989
106 - 205 Carnegie Drive
Retail Supplements and Apparel
K&R Tax Services Inc 780-707-0649
203 - 15 Carleton Drive
Tax Services, Payroll Service and Bookkeeping Services
Petsmart 780-470-3045
115 -0915 St Albert Trail
Retailer of Pet Products and Pet Services
Silver Hub Inc. 780-905-4097
22B Muir Dr
Retail, Jewelry and Art
TS Signs Printing & Promo Ltd 780-265-3643
240 - 200 Carnegie Drive
Signs, Printing and Promotional Items to Business, Corporations and Teams
Unlimited Chrome Inc 780-265-6776
110 - 25 Chisholm Ave
Custom Painting, Hydrographics, Gold Plating
Home-Based Businesses
Aspen Home Services 780-729-3096
Home Improvements, Renovations, Repairs, Maintenance
Brian Duivenvoorde/Darrel Peterson 780-995-2422
HVAC Service Repair & Installation
Cacao Churro 780-901-0920
Food Truck Selling Churros and Hot/Cold Drinks
Good Neighbour Rides 780-850-3510
Transportation & Accompaniment for Seniors; Taxi Services
INRG Productions 587-989-4674
DJ - Karaoke & Fundraising Product
Integrated - Tel 780-418-0226
Interconnect, Business Phone Systems
It's Your Shift Ltd 587-290-0115
Executive Coaching, Facilitation, Management Consulting
J&C Media Corporation 780-819-0796
Wedding Videography
Pioneer Cleaning Services 780-716-1428
Home/Residential/Office Cleaning
Refined Homes 780-722-7591
Home Builder
St. Albert Electric 780-885-3532
Electrical Contractor
St. Albert Plumbing and Drain Cleaning 780-909-1092
24 Hour Emergency Service, Plumbing, Drain Cleaning & Gasfitting
Zak Brubaker 780-221-7185
Stucco and Plaster Work & Restoration
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Monthly Growth Stats
Single Family Housing Starts
 Single Family Dwelling Resales
 Building Permits Issued
CORRECTION NOTICE - Last month's issue contained incorrect figures in the Jan-Sept 2016 column. The correct figures are posted below
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City of St. Albert | info@stalbert.ca
29 Sir Winston Churchill Avenue | St. Albert, AB | T8N 0G3 |
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