My wife and I recently visited the
Morikami Japanese cultural centre in Florida. We saw a fascinating exhibition of modern Origami, and then we went for a walk. Landscaped Japanese gardens surround a peaceful lake in the grounds.
We sat on a Japanese bench to enjoy the view over the water.
It was peaceful, tranquil, and induced all the right calm feelings .... until ... to our alarm - a large alligator suddenly surfaced a few feet in front of us!
Well, it's Florida, after all. We watched the alligator swim around, and sent pix to the grandchildren.
But on our way out, we saw a large, prominent notice - maybe 4'-0" square. It warned visitors that wild alligators sometimes find their way into the lake and its surroundings; to be careful, not to enter the water, and avoid the vegetation at the lakeside.
How did we miss that notice on our way in?
We had walked right past it.
Seeing the 'gator was a total shock; but we missed the signs.
Sound familiar?
We thus had a lot in common with the pollsters, pundits, politicians and everyone else for whom the outcome of the Presidential election was a shock. In comfortable retrospect, they also missed the signs.
But like the sign at the lake -- the signs were clearly there.
It took the election to make everyone pay attention.
The American election is symptomatic of major, fundamental changes taking place in western society.
We live with many changes - the digital revolution, communications and globalization, climate change, the changing family. All are potentially destabilizing.
But one stands out above all the others. It was a major factor in the election.
What is the future of work and employment?
The future of work is changing. Students graduating school may not have work. That is already the case in many towns in middle America.
In this situation, educators and schools have a lot of hard thinking to do.
We missed the signs.
Google 'White Poverty', followed by 'Rust Belt'.
You will see years of reports from the American mid-west about the closure of factories, and the automation of agriculture. The mid-west has been economically eviscerated.
What remains is despair, unemployment, poverty, crashing mortgages and epidemics of drug abuse.
Most private schools (including, especially, Jewish schools) have been shielded from many of these problems.
The major employment opportunities of the last thirty years or so have been in technology, finance, the professions and services. Those opportunities are concentrated in the urban areas of the east and west coast regions. Check, and check.
But these sectors (professional and geographic) may also undergo radical change in the coming decade or so.
In these circumstances, what should our schools be teaching to prepare our students for tomorrow's world?
How can we predict it?
What might we expect?
The greatest future challenge.
Employment and available work are shrinking and will continue to shrink.
Automation and the globalization of manufacturing are inexorably shrinking the workplace. Much human labour is already superfluous.
Unemployment and the disappearance of work is no longer just a problem of the young.
Perhaps we will drift into two nations? Some will be employed and well-paid. Many will be unemployed, or sporadically employed, and low-paid.
That is a recipe for political and social upheaval. How will people fill their time? And how will they live?
Science and technology will be the economic drivers of education and industry. That will not solve - and may exacerbate - the problem of insufficient work.
New technologies, including items we have yet to dream about, may create some new jobs; but not enough to offset the jobs they will replace.
In the workplace, universities, colleges and industrial research, STEM knowledge (Science -Technology - Engineering - Mathematics) will be central and most sought after.
The challenges for schools
Schools will face challenges in understanding, conceptualizing and implementing necessary changes.
The K-12 education system will have to radically transform itself.
· It must face the biggest reform of education in the last 150 years
· I predict it will return to valuing knowledge above skills. Multi-level STEM will prepare students for the workplace. Renewed teaching of history, civics and humanities will teach cultural and social values for a very different society.
· There will be a greater emphasis on practical and industrial ('vocational') training
· Teachers and educational personnel will need extensive retraining.
TAKEAWAY THOUGHTS FOR SCHOOL LEADERS
· Do you follow discussions of future trends in society?
· Are you, your colleagues and your Board thinking about the educational future of your school? Does it figure on the agendas of your Board and/or Staff retreats?
· Do you already have an expanding and purposeful STEM program at all levels? A robotics lab? A 3-D printing program? Coding courses?
· If you run a High School - are your College or Careers Counselors up to date in the advice they are giving?
- Finally - how will all of this affect the Jewish community and the Jewish dimension of your school?
INITIATE THIS DISCUSSION IN YOUR SCHOOL!
PAUL IS AVAILABLE FOR PRESENTATIONS, DISCUSSIONS, SEMINARS
IN PERSON OR BY VIDEOCONFERENCE
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