- Governor Kasich of Ohio is investing $15m in an experimental track for driverless trucks. Uber and VW have both announced research programs for driverless cars. Many driving jobs will change - and eventually disappear.
- A readable article in Newsweek online foresees coming trends in applications of Artificial Intelligence. Computers and automation are edging into 'thought work' - law, finance, medicine, and even therapy. AI will disrupt and displace many highly-paid professionals.
Can anyone doubt that we are looking at revolutions in the way we live and work?
In
last week's
newsletter, I talked about one factor in the recent election - the changes in the workplace and the future of employment.
Since writing that, I have spent hours reading and researching that topic, because it will have critical impact on schools.
We should be preparing for those changes, because the K-12 education system will have to radically transform itself. It must face the biggest reform of education in the last 150 years.
Looking ahead is highly speculative, and predictions of all sorts do not enjoy high credibility at the moment!
Jewish tradition is also quite firm about the dubious status of prophecy in our time.
However.....
What can we reasonably predict?
- We have no idea (yet) of the impact of Artificial Intelligence on our society. Its greatest impact will be on "thinking" professions. Even now, automation is causing reassignment of tasks and responsibilities in, for example, law and medicine. We think the human brain is 'irreplaceable'. It may not be.
- For everything else - anything that can be automated - will be automated.
- Almost every conceivable job will need computer/digital literacy.
- The number of people in full employment will shrink - perhaps drastically. No profession will be unaffected. In advanced economies, a large non-working population will be the norm. New systems of economics and 'universal salaries' will have to be devised to deal with this.
- There will have to be some growth of non-technical occupations. Obvious ones include anything connected with care of the elderly (because those same countries all have aging populations - and better medicine!), and anything connected with leisure. But as the great economist J.M.Keynes wrote in the 1930's: "our discovery of means of economising the use of labour can outrun the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.."
- But if indeed the workplace shrinks, more people will be competing for fewer jobs - especially unskilled jobs. That means lower wages for those categories of work. Even now, new vacancies for skilled employment outnumber those for unskilled by a ratio of 10:1.
The implications for what schools need to teach
Here are some hypotheses:
- Literacy and numeracy will be essential. Employers complain now that college graduates cannot communicate clearly.
- Message to schools: Stress the "3 R's", plus public speaking and presentation.
- Computer literacy is an essential. No-one will be able to function in the workplace without it. Yet the nature of 'computer literacy' in 5 - 10 years' time is unknown.
- Message to schools: Take the best advice on curriculum. Engage the best staff. Keep refreshing your instruction. Make sure your students understand how computers work - and make doubly sure that your teachers do!
- STEM subjects - including robotics and engineering - must have a strong, central presence in your school.
- Message to schools: Now is already late! Think about curriculum and activities K - 12! Strategise your staffing needs - you may have to think out of the box to bring these subjects into your school. Invest in Labs. Build internship-type programs and alliances with local industries, universities, hospitals. Educate towards entrepeneurship and business.
- Prepare students for the fact that they must be flexible in their attitude to lifetime work. During their working life they should be prepared to retrain and change direction.
- Message to schools: Re-plan your Careers (and College) counseling. (Will this apply to teachers as well? )
- The 'leisure' professions may have a new lease of life. These may include pure leisure activity; they may include study, and/or the humanities/arts. As mentioned, healthcare and elderly care will be much in demand as the population ages, and medicine continues to improve.
- Message to schools: Think about alternative school programs, including combined 'work experience' and directed volunteer hours.
Institutional impact
For Jewish private schools:
- The mainstream / community and Modern Orthodox schools will need to adapt, change and invest. Paradoxically, their small 'stand-alone' status may give them an advantage of agility. Those with forward-thinking leadership and good funding may become exemplary. Some umbrella organizations may have key roles in training, and some of the experience of Israeli technical schools (ORT, AMIT, AMAL) could be significantly helpful.
- The Yeshivah/Seminary sector faces one large question. Does it want to train students for the workforce or not? If it does - necessary changes become inescapable. If it doesn't - their students will graduate into a society where many more people than today are not part of the workforce. They will thus benefit from whatever financial allowances governments make available, assuming that they are compliant with whatever conditions attach.
But there are two further inescapable pressures with which Jewish schools will have to grapple - demographics and finances.
- Mainstream Jewish schools are likely to see a decline in enrolment over the coming decades. This is a product of low birthrates and climbing tuition. This is already being felt in some communities (Toronto is a clear example). This will cause some closures, some amalgamations - and many crises. (Enrolment in non-Jewish private schools in the USA is predicted to decline by over 25% by 2030.)
- Yeshivot/Seminaries - likely to be most affected by employment changes. Low income + very large families = major problems for already-stretched schools.
- For all, the expenses involved in the restructuring, re-equipping and teacher retraining required will be huge. This problem will be shared by all schools, public and private. Will the national school restructuring necessary attract significant government funding?
THE BOTTOM LINE
Schools are largely isolated and insulated from the settings where change is already happening. They operate in a different world to factories, offices, warehouses, and businesses. (How many Administrators or teachers have been inside a factory which is run by robots?) Educators are often blissfully unaware of that parallel world, except as beneficiaries.
But schools have the responsibility of educating the students who will live and work in that new world....
- We are entering a period of major change in every way - economic, political, educational and social
- Each of these will affect our schools and our community in unpredictable, but radical ways
- The early signs of change are already with us
- School leadership must be leaders in getting their schools thinking. Fundamental change in schools may take years. Start preparing the ground now.
- Some practical suggestions:
o In your weekly staff email, include a weekly link to some future-oriented item. I'm going to do this every week from now on in my newsletter!
- Spend ten minutes of every staff meeting on similar material. Encourage your teachers to think about how this will affect their teaching
- Secure a budget to send staff to forward-looking conferences and training, and have them report to staff meetings on their return
- Think about a five-year plan to ensure your school is positioned to deal with the changes as they appear ....
- Keep yourself abreast and informed
- Show that you are alert to changes in the thinking, circumstances and behavior of school families
- Start now moving curriculum and courses into new areas
INITIATE THIS DISCUSSION IN YOUR SCHOOL!
PAUL SHAVIV
IS AVAILABLE FOR PRESENTATIONS, DISCUSSIONS, SEMINARS
IN PERSON OR BY VIDEOCONFERENCE
* * * * * * * * * * *
..... and finally - some (different) TAKEAWAY THOUGHTS FOR THE SHABBAT TABLE:
The 'Jewish community' is the story of Judaism as well as the story of the Jews.
Turbulence in general society has often generated major changes in Jewish society, in Jewish thinking, and especially in Jewish education.
If we look forward to, say, 2030 (not so far away!) or 2040, how will Judaism itself have changed?
o Many have defined recent political events in the USA, the UK, France, Italy and Austria as signifying a "rise in populism". What will a "rise in populism" mean in Jewish terms?
o What changes (and what parental demands) will that bring to the different school (and synagogue) sectors?
o How will technology affect the Jewish Studies classroom / the shiur ?
o Will the Jewish family continue to change and develop? Will those changes affect the social structures of our schools? The Jewish Studies curriculum?
o How will changes in the economic structure and circumstances of society affect how people practice Judaism?
o Will synagogues ... charities ... schools ... yeshivot/seminaries... survive in a new world?
o And if not - what will take their place, and what form will those institutions take?
