TORONTO, Wednesday, September 27, 2017 - Today, the Keep Ontario Working (KOW) Coalition, which CFA is a member of, released two major reports that broadly capture the challenges associated with Bill 148 and the concerns of the employer community. The
first report is the final economic impact analysis of Bill 148 by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA), which was peer-reviewed by Professor Morley Gunderson of the University of Toronto.
Highlights of the report include:
Rewards
- 2.2 million employees could receive a pay increase (55% women, 45% men, 74% dual income couples or single individuals, 11% single-parent families)
- Up to 100,000 employees could become unionized
- Over 120,000 part-time employees may earn the same as full-time employees doing the same job
- 6 million Ontarians will be positively affected by a wage increase, increase in Vacation days and/or increase in Personal Emergency Leave (PEL) days
Risks
- 185,000 jobs will be at risk
- Small businesses will incur $23 billion in costs over the next 2 years
- 1.8 million Ontarians are expected to be negatively affected directly or indirectly
- 80% of small business employers will be affected by the changes to Vacation and PEL days
- 40% of employees who become unionized will increase the labour costs for small to medium sized businesses
- 55% of part-time employees who earn the same as their full-time counterparts will increase the labour costs for small to medium sized businesses
The net result indicates that while the proposed changes will see $11 billion in wage stimulus flow into the economy in the next two years,
a remaining $12 billion problem exists which will lead to jobs lost, added costs, and general damage to the Ontario economy.
The Keep Ontario Working Coalition and CANCEA released interim findings of this Analysis in August, ahead of final amendments being submitted for first reading of the legislation. To date, CANCEA's work remains the only peer-reviewed economic analysis of Bill 148. In having been reviewed by Morley Gunderson, the work has benefited from one of the leading economists in Canada, who the Ontario Government has turned to on multiple occasions, such as during the Changing Workplaces Review which became the foundation for Bill 148.
"Our risk assessment of the Act is that there is more risk than reward for Ontarians despite the stated goal of the legislation in helping Ontario's more vulnerable and the Ontario economy," says Paul Smetanin, President of CANCEA. "Given the risk of consolidating income and wealth inequality, putting about 185,000 people out of work, and the risks of small/medium businesses being exposed to their larger competitors, the unintended consequences are significant."
In addition, the Keep Ontario Working coalition released a second report, The Flip Side of "Fair", which showcases testimonials from employers and outline how they will be impacted by the legislation. The report gives a voice to those businesses who have felt excluded from the committee process and policy discussion around this legislation. The testimonials all share a common theme, that the minimum wage increase and labour reforms will have serious consequences for their business and their communities.
The KOW Coalition and CFA will continue to advocate that the government:
- Consider the risks outlined in this economic impact analysis while also conducting their own analysis;
- Implement broad amendments to Bill 148; and,
- Slow down implementation to avoid unintended consequences and protect Ontario's jobs, communities and our most vulnerable.
If you have any questions about the reports or any other advocacy issue, please contact Ryan Eickmeier, Vice President, Government Relations & Public Policy, at
[email protected] or phone 416-695-2896 ext. 297.
The Keep Ontario Working Coalition (KOW) is a broad-spectrum group of business sector representatives concerned with sound public policy to help produce jobs and grow Ontario. For more information please visit
www.keepontarioworking.ca.
|
