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2016 NLBMDA Election Recap
In a stunning result, defying many pollsters and conventional wisdom, businessman Donald Trump (R) defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) to be elected the 45th President of the United States. Although Clinton is likely to win the popular vote by a narrow margin, Trump's unexpected strength in states bordering the Great Lakes provided the margin of victory for the Republican.
Trump's strength at the top of the ticket helped Republicans win most of the close Senate and House races, and come January, Republicans will have control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives for the first time in
10 years
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President-Elect
Trump currently leads Clinton in the Electoral College, 306 to 232. Many political prognosticators have written columns admitting they were wrong in not giving Trump a greater chance of victory. Clinton failed to pull together a winning coalition performing slightly worse than Barack Obama in 2012 with voters between the ages of 18 and 30, African-Americans, Latinos, and Asian-Americans.
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Hillary Clinton (D)
232 Electoral Votes
59,944,386 (47.7%)
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President-Elect
Donald Trump (R)
306 Electoral Votes
59,708,739 (47.5%)
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Surprisingly, Trump was able to exploit the voting gender gap, not Clinton. Trump did better among male voters than Romney in 2012, winning them by a 12-point margin vs. Romney's 7-point margin four years ago. Meanwhile, Clinton was unable to substantially drive up her win margin with women carrying their vote share by 12 points vs. Obama's 11-point margin in 2012. Ultimately, it appears voter turnout was lower than four years ago, and that weaker than expected turnout among Democrats may have been the deciding factor in several states.
Senate Recap
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Senate
Republicans will remain in the Majority next year after winning most of the close races. Democrats were successful in two races having Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) defeat Sen. Mark Kirk (R) in Illinois and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) defeat Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) in New Hampshire. However, Democrats failed in their attempt to pick up seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Republicans did have one pick up opportunity in Nevada but state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Rep. Joe Heck (R) in the contest to replace Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D), who is retiring. Louisiana will have a runoff next month between state Treasurer John Kennedy (D) and state Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D), where Republicans are expected to hold the open seat currently held by Sen. David Vitter (R).
Republicans will likely hold a narrow majority of 52-48 next year when adding the two Independents that organize with Democrats.
House of Representatives Recap
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Republicans suffered narrower than expected losses in the 435 House races and have lost a net of only six seats from their current majority. Three seats are still undecided. In California, Rep. Darrell Issa (R) appears to have won re-election but that race has not yet been called. Additionally, there are runoff elections next month for two open seats in Louisiana that are expected to be won by Republicans. Redistricting advantages along with unexpected strength by Trump propelled many endangered Republicans to victory.
What does it all mean for 2017?
Trump has never held elected office so it's a little unclear what Congress and the White House will focus on once he is sworn-in as the 45th president. In the new Trump Administration, taxes could be slashed, the landmark Affordable Care Act could be repealed, and budget deficits could soar once again. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already said that modification or repeal of Obamacare is a top priority. There is currently a Supreme Court vacancy that Trump will look for the Senate to confirm early in 2017. Congress will have to vote on authorizing an increase in the debt ceiling before next fall, and may also look to reform the tax code as part of an effort to increase infrastructure investment and reduce the federal budget deficit.
During his campaign Trump made several promises including increase funding to improve care for veterans, a half-trillion-dollar infrastructure program aimed at rebuilding the nation's roads and bridges and providing thousands of new jobs. At the same time, he's promised broad and deep tax cuts aimed at generating record-setting economic growth. Time will only tell if he is able to follow through on his promises and what impact they may have.
House Republicans are expected to hold Leadership elections next week. Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is expected to return and Trump said this afternoon that he supports Ryan but could face opposition from a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Other top Leaders in House Republican Leadership are expected to remain in the same roles next year.
Several key House Committees are expected to have new Chairs. Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is expected to chair the Education and Workforce Committee, which has oversight of Department of Labor regulations. A battle is expected for the House Energy and Commerce gavel where the current chair, Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), is term-limited and the top contenders to replace him are Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Greg Walden (R-OR). NLBMDA's government relations team looks forward to working with the new Administration and Congress to advance the priorities of the LBM industry.
What does it all mean for NLBMDA and its legislative priorities moving forward?
Heading into 2017, NLBMDA and the Lumber and Building Material (LBM) industry continue to face an uncertain political and economic climate. The challenges, whether in the federal regulatory, legislative or code arenas, will continue, and you can rest assured that the NLBMDA is up to the task of promoting, protecting and advancing the interests of the entire LBM industry.
The market for LBM products continues to see improvement; however, political tides have dramatically shifted, leaving a lot of uncertainty. NLBMDA will remain the voice of the nation's lumber and building material dealers in front of regulators, the newly elected Trump Administration, and Congress. Your support allows NLBMDA to maintain a sound, active presence on Capitol Hill, ensuring beneficial policies in our marketplace and that regulatory agencies are not overreaching.
NLBMDA is already working to engage Congress on its legislative priorities for the 115th Congress to level the playing field for small and medium-sized business as part of tax reform, increase small business health care affordability, and overhaul the regulatory process. NLBMDA's Spring Meeting and Legislative Conference will be held March 27-29, 2017 in Washington, D.C. Dealers are encouraged to attend as it marks an early opportunity to meet with the new Congress and advance the issues important to the LBM industry.
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