Here we are in mid-September where we see renewed energy in the market. There is a feeling of opportunity and anticipation in both buyers and sellers.
Just this month, we see increased inventory; there are 160 single family homes on the market in Marin. These are new listings as well as relaunched listings that did not sell during the summer months. We not only see more inventory, but we also see more realistic prices.
Sellers know they have this brief window of activity to sell their home before the end of the year so buyers should expect to see more realistic pricing.
It would be great if buyers had some time to lay back and take their time to get back into the market - they've had to compete with multiple offers on a limited amount of inventory - all year long. My advice is - if you see a home you like - go for it - be aggressive and jump.
By now, buyers should be prepared with all their ducks - preapproved applications, contractors, inspectors, and be ready to do whatever it takes.
One of the big concerns I hear from buyers is the question of whether the market has reached a high point and is softening.
How do I know if I'm overpaying?
The California Association of Realtors estimated only a statewide 6.3% sales growth for 2016, and here in Marin as of YTD, we're at about 9.5%.
The median sale price for single family homes in Marin YTD is 1,200,000, a 9.5% increase over 2015.
San Rafael hit a median price of $1,000,000 in August.
Today there are only 16 homes on the market available in San Rafael under $1,000,000 and only 10 homes in Novato on the market for under $1,000,000.
Left is a graph from MAR reflecting the current availability of single family homes under $1 million in Marin. 2016 appears to be a year at which the county has very few offerings under the $1 million mark. There are neighborhoods of Marin that are affordable; it just takes a little effort to discover them. You may want to check out areas in Bel Marin Keys, Hamilton, Marin City, areas of Fairfax, and residential neighborhoods surrounding the industrial/commercial area of San Rafael. These areas provide close proximity to the freeway with views, and large lots - or look at the condo market.
Condos - Entry Opportunity for Buyers.
As of this writing there are 111 condos on the market in Marin with a median price of $649,000. Condos are the dependable entry level property for buyers when the single family home prices are at high levels. And contrary to popular belief, condos do appreciate right along with the rest of the market.
There were 59 condominiums sold in Marin in the month of August, with a median sale price of $628,000. The average days-on-market was 42. At a significantly higher selling price than this time last year, this may mean that homebuyers in Marin are opting for a less expensive option by seeking a condo rather than single family dwelling.
Marin Average Home Price Sets the High
The average home sale price in January this year was $1,219,578 whereas the YTD the average sale price is $1,521,460 - a 25% increase since the start of this year.
Prices have not seemed to rise as quickly in 2016 as they did last year. While we're still seeing some record numbers and price increases, the market seems a little more measured and realistic. Sellers who put their homes on the market without much action are realizing they may have pushed the envelope a little too far and after a time off the market are back on now at a reduced price.
The outlook for the market is good right now. I am excited to have properties to show buyers, and excited that sellers seem to be getting the message about "right" pricing vs. pushing the market higher and higher.
The Luxury Home Market - It's the Lifestyle!
The luxury markets of Belvedere, Tiburon, and Kentfield all saw a decrease in median sale price, while Ross saw the largest increase this month in terms of median sale price change.
The luxury market in Marin is generally defined by casual elegance, great views, ample square footage, access to the outdoors, pools, large backyard areas, and custom finishes. The luxury markets of Tiburon, Belvedere, and Kentfield each saw a decrease in their minimum sale price in August, while Ross had a 101% increase in its median sale price. What does this mean for the luxury market?
Inventory is still steady, with $5+ million range properties on the market, and multiple properties in the luxury market still available.
Seven homes for sale in Ross, range between $2,100,000 and $22,900,000. In neighboring Kentfield, there are 13 active listings, ranging between $1,149,000 and $5,495,000. In Tiburon, there are 34 properties for sale, the least expensive priced at $1,675,000, and the most expensive property at $14,925,000.
Last year's fourth quarter saw stronger numbers than anticipated, based on a heavy Fall selling season with closings from fall sales pushed into the later months of the year. We can expect to see that bump again this year; maybe not as high as last year, but still a good uptick.
Audrey Moira Shimkas, M.A.
415-847-8331
Associate Broker
Bradley Real Estate
CalBRE 00896873
