Welcome to the third issue of our new Political Pulse, an ACEC Georgia e-newsletter intended to provide a monthly update of what's going on at the local, state and federal government levels that might have an impact on our industry and/or your business. This Political Pulse covers a completely different part of the political world than the Georgia General Assembly update we're providing currently in our longstanding, weekly Capitol Update during the legislative session. 

Here's what you need to know...

The latest fundraising numbers are in and although they may not be a firm predictor of the way Georgia will vote in May and November, it does allow each candidate a chance to assess their current position in the race and to formulate a strategy going forward. It also gives donors who have not yet picked a horse some indication of who are the "safer bets."  

Ultimately, there were few surprises in the disclosures, with most candidates falling near where they were expected. 

In the race for Governor, current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle remains the fundraising front runner, far in the lead having raised a total of $6.8 million since he entered the race. This is nearly triple the total from his previous disclosure and more than twice the total of his nearest competitor. Secretary of State Brian Kemp is in second place, with $2.9 million raised. Former State Senator Hunter Hill (R-Buckhead) and political newcomer, Clay Tippins, are neck-and-neck at $2.3 million and $2.1 million, respectively. State Senator Michael Williams trails well behind the Republican field with $1.8 million raised, which includes his own personal loan of $500,000 to his campaign. 

The two Democratic candidates [former state representatives Stacey Abrams (D-Atlanta) and Stacey Evans (D-Ringgold)] are also in a tight race with each other, both raising around $2.3 million. While their fundraising totals are close, their "burn rate" (the rate of campaign spending) is very different. Stacey Evans holds more than $1.5 million in cash on hand, while Stacey Abrams held only $461,365 in cash on hand, perhaps giving Evans an edge, with the ability to spend more at just the point when voters start to focus on the Governor's race. 

Cagle, Kemp and Williams are prohibited from fundraising while the legislature is in session, giving the other candidates three additional months to get a little more in the bank before the primary election in May. 

Over the past week, Cagle, Kemp and Williams have all fired shots (pun very much intended) on Twitter regarding Delta's decision to eliminate a previously little-known discount that it had offered to NRA members (according to Delta, only 13 NRA members had ever used the discount). This happened mere days before a tax reform package was set for a vote which would have eliminated state and local taxes on jet fuel, saving Delta around $30 million per year. Williams railed on social media against the proposed tax break as "crony capitalism," but Cagle drew nationwide attention when he stated that he would "kill any tax legislation that benefits Delta unless the company changes their position and fully reinstates its relationship with the NRA." Not to be outdone, Kemp proposed an Independence Day sales tax holiday on firearms, stating: "Instead of giving millions of our hard-earned tax dollars to billion-dollar businesses that want to disarm law-abiding citizens, we should give a tax break to hardworking Georgians who want to protect their families and loved ones from criminal aliens, terrorists and gang members." Some have suggested that these attacks on one of Georgia's oldest Fortune 100 businesses (and its largest private employer) may not have been helpful to Georgia's efforts to land Amazon's HQ2 facility and its 50,000 high-wage jobs, even if they earned Cagle points with conservative GOP primary voters. 

In the race for Lt. Governor, Senator David Shafer holds the fundraising lead, with a total amount raised of $1.6 million in the last disclosure. His two GOP opponents each raised roughly half that amount and are closely tied with each other. Former State Representative Geoff Duncan raised approximately $720,000 and former State Senator Rick Jeffares raised $708,000. Note, however, that Duncan's total includes his own $250,000 loan to his campaign, while Jeffares is all from actual contributions. Shafer also holds a significant advantage in cash on hand, with $1,484,555 on hand vs. $516,228 for Duncan and $421,933 for Jeffares.

A Democratic candidate has thrown her hat into the ring for Lt. Governor. Sara Riggs Amico, a trucking company executive, raised most of her $504,000 in the last month prior to the most recent fundraising disclosures, including a $186,000 personal loan to her own campaign.

In the last issue of the Political Pulse we reported on U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donahue advocating for a 25-cent increase in a gas tax. Senator Tom Caper (R-Delaware) confirmed that the President supported this idea. House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Pennsylvania) also called on Congress to raise the motor fuel tax at an event for the Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (ASHTO).  

The President's infrastructure plan was released with four main objectives. Two we mentioned last month - generating a $1.5 trillion investment in infrastructure (mostly from local, state and private capital) and streamlining the permitting process for new construction down to two years. With Congress struggling to find a way to pay for its $250 billion portion of the plan, that leaves local and state governments, along with public entities, a massive delta to make it to $1.5 trillion touted by the administration. Where the money would go differs a little than previously reported:

• Half would go toward an incentive program to match financing from state and local governments investing in rebuilding projects.
• A quarter of the appropriations would be used for rural projects in the form of block grants to states so that Governors could decide where to invest.
• $20 billion would be for "transformative programs" meant for new projects rather than rehabilitation of old infrastructure.
• Another $20 billion is allocated to expand the use of loans and private activity bonds, a common tool used to fund infrastructure projects.
• The last $10 billion would go into a "capital financing fund."

Republicans were somewhat taken aback by the $1.5 trillion goal, while Democrats voiced concern that the actual federal investment amount of $250 billion was far too low. 

 

Moreover, the small investment amount would be spread over numerous types of infrastructure. "My Administration's plan addresses more than traditional infrastructure - like roads, bridges, and airports - but addresses other needs like drinking and wastewater systems, waterways, water resources, energy, rural infrastructure, public lands, veterans' hospitals, and Brownfield and Superfund sites," said Trump. "The reforms set forth in my plan will strengthen the economy, make our country more competitive, reduce the costs of goods and services for American families and enable Americans to build their lives on top of the best infrastructure in the world."