|
SENTINEL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The 21st report on intelligence matters, as prepared by Arup and made available to London First and the Security & Resilience Network.
1. Risk of disruptive pro- and anti-President Trump protests and the i
mplications for London
Background:
Several recent political developments instigated by US President Trump have increased the likelihood of protests and demonstrations targeting US diplomatic assets in London in December 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. These developments include:
Trump's retweeting of several Twitter posts by far-right group Britain First in late November 2017;
Trump's December 2017 announcement that the US would recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital city; the US Supreme Court's decision on 4 December 2017 to uphold Trump's travel ban on nationals from eight countries; and further reports of Trump's planned visit to the UK in early 2018.
Analysis:
President Trump's recent political activity, in addition to a possible visit to London in late February 2018 to coincide with the official opening of the new US Embassy at Nine Elms, has activated both left-wing and far-right activists. Postings on the websites and social-media accounts of a range of campaign groups are dominated by reaction to Trump, indicating the beginning of a new uptick in pro- and anti-US/Trump demonstrations. Anti-Trump activists have already staged demonstrations outside the US Embassy on 1 December in response to Trump's retweeting of Britain First Twitter posts and on 8 December in response to Trump's announcement that the US would recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital city. Most significantly, a range of anti-Trump groups, including anti-war and anti-racism campaigners, have called for mass protests against Trump should he travel to London in early 2018. Initial plans for demonstrations have already been announced for late February. Pro-Trump activists such as Britain First have stated on Facebook that they plan to rally in support of Trump outside the US Embassy on 26 February 2018.
Implications for London:
The focus of these protests is likely to be the new US Embassy in Nine Elms, Whitehall, Parliament Square and possibly Winfield House (US Ambassador's residence) in Regent's Park. B
oth pro- and anti-Trump activists are capable of drawing thousands of supporters on to the streets. Demonstrations planned in advance and held on a weekend or a public holiday are likely to attract numbers in the low thousands and upwards. Protests of this size are likely to cause disruption to business operations in and around Nine Elms e.g. vehicle deliveries and courier services as well as staff and patrons' ability to access hotels, restaurants and retail stores. There will be a decline in the risk of disruptive protests affecting businesses operating in and around Grosvenor Square from mid-January onwards as the US Embassy will have moved to Nine Elms. Buildings occupied by US businesses or other American organisations are unlikely to be directly targeted unless these organisations are publicly associated with Trump or visited by him if he does visit London.
Intelligence cut-off date: 3 January 2018
2. Terrorist threat expected to remain diverse and dynamic in 2018
Background:
After arrests in December in South Yorkshire and Derbyshire, a total 10 terrorist plots had been said to have been thwarted in the UK in the past year. In that same month, reports of a plot to detonate an improvised explosive device (IED) at the gates of Downing Street included an attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister with an edged weapon. Additionally, crowd rushes in Oxford Street area in November and December in response to reports of gunshots highlighted the current high sensitivity of crowds to threats to their safety.
Analysis:
Details of the alleged terrorist plots that have been thwarted are sparse. However, based on information released to date, several insights on the state of the terrorist threat environment can be drawn out:
- The range of attack methodologies under consideration or attempted in plots and attacks is broadening. In 2017 there is evidence that terrorists operating in the UK have considered or used at least six different modus operandi, including placed IEDs, person-borne IEDs, firearms and vehicles as weapons. The threat is dynamic.
- The type of targets discussed or considered in plots vary widely. Target types include national government and official buildings, high-profile tourist attractions in London, foreign government missions, entertainment venues, airport terminals and military property and personnel. What ties these various target types together is primarily a desire to cause mass casualties or, secondarily, to carry out a retaliatory attack against the UK Government.
- The incidents on Oxford Street highlight the challenge of managing crowds in enclosed public buildings. Reports of gunshots - which were later shown to be false - triggered several hundred people to flee a platform at Oxford Circus station on 24 November. The incident resulted in at least nine injuries caused in the crush of people seeking to flee and/or shelter. This incident - and the similar event on 26 December - occurred during peak shopping hours. When this type of incident occurs in an enclosed crowded public building, it is highly to cause a spike in demand for exiting buildings at short notice. Additionally, the inverse situation may also occur where people seek shelter in a public building en masse in order to escape a perceived threat in the public realm. There is a high risk of casualties in the crush of people and the potential for light (accidental) damage to property.
Implications for Businesses:
The dynamism of the current terrorist threat and the sensitivity of crowds to reports of security threats mean that for businesses in London, implementing proportional mitigation measures to minimise disruption resulting from terrorism is likely to increase business resilience. Given the current threat:
- Establishing a security culture that involves all staff (not just security) is likely to help identify any suspicious behaviour (e.g., hostile reconnaissance or the beginning of an attack) or enable swifter verification of reports of a security incident in the public realm and in public buildings.
- Deploying a range of mitigation measures would help businesses to reduce the impact of the diverse range of credible terrorist attack methodologies now under consideration by terrorists operating in the UK.
- Validating business continuity response and recovery plans would help maintain normal operations in the event of attack that occur with little or no warning. This is relevant given the short lead times that some plots - and successful attacks - in 2017, such as the London Bridge attack, have had.
- Establishing an easy-to-use means of accounting for staff would enable businesses to identify any staff at risk or missing following a security incident. In addition, the security implications of allowing unknown people to shelter inside premises needs to be considered.
The crowd rushes on Oxford Street highlight the need to study pedestrian behaviour in crowded but enclosed public spaces and develop effective crowd movement strategies and crowd warning systems.
London First will be holding a breakfast briefing on this topic on 28 February which you can read more about HERE.
|
