A summary of drought conditions based on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Drought Assessment Webinar on
February 13, 2018
Auburn University Water Resources Center and the
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Webinar Sponsors
Most of the ACF Basin is currently under drought conditions. Portions of the middle and lower ACF are under severe dry conditions according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 02/13/2018).
Our next briefing will be Tuesday,March 13, 2018, 1 pm ET.
Portions of the lower and middle ACF are currently under severe drought conditions according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 02/06/2018).
Percent of normal precipitation over the past 90 days
Rainfall deficits are spread across the ACF Basin with a Increased drought over the lower and middle ACF.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, probability of precipitation in the southeastern U.S. will continue in the below-normal range for the next three months.
Realtime Streamflow
Realtime streamflows in the upper and lower ACF basin have a positive response from previous rainfall with much above normal streamflows. Most of the ACF continue to be mostly in the normal range. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).
Flint River at Albany Streamflow
Streamflow for the Flint River at Albany is currently in the below normal range, with similar levels at Bainbridge. Levels at Griffin and Carsonville are in the normal range.
Groundwater conditions range from below-normal to much-below-normal in the ACF Basin, with not much change from the previous brief. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).
One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center predicts near-normal flows for the entire ACF during the next month.
Lake Lanier Water Level
Lake Lanier level is currently in Zone 1. The forecast indicate levels are near the historical median elevation trend for the next two weeks.
ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage
The ACF System Conservation Storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to maintain in Zone 1 (orange line) over the next few weeks.
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
*Heavy rainfall over the last week across the upper and lower ACF. *The Apalachicola river station at Blountstown is currently at minor flood stage.
*The 90-day rainfall deficits were between 4-6 inches in the middle ACF, and 2-4 inches elswhere
*La Niña is in place over the Pacific - with a ~ 90% chance or greater to continue.
*La Niña favors warm and dry Winter and Spring.
*Models and CPC forecast are favoring a warm and dry Winter/Spring.
*Storm track favorable for precipitation in the upper ACF and headwaters.
*The real-time streamflows in the ACF Basin are currently in the normal to high range.
*28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in normal range.
*28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier currently rank from normal to below normal range
*28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal to below normal range.
*Groundwater levels range from high to much below normal across the ACF Basin.
*The Southeast River Forecast Center's 1 month streamflow forecast near-normal flows for the ACF Basin.
*Note, streamflow forecast pie charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other factors, but are based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
*West Point and Walter F. George are both above guide curve.
*Buford has moved into Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain steady over the next few weeks.
*Continuing to meet downstream flow requirements for water quality and water supply.
*The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 over the next two weeks.
Acknowledgments and Resources:
David Zierden, FSU
Paul Ankorn, USGS
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Sandra Guzmán, Auburn University
