In This Issue
2015 Economic Forecast
Six Key Commercial Trends
Mapping America's Futures
The New Argus Enterprise
Appraisal Institute Service
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Thank you for reviewing our 1st Quarter 2015 Newsletter which highlights important economic trends anticipated for the new year.  In this edition you will find information on recent assignments of the firm, developments related to the new Argus Enterprise cash flow software, and our involvement in leadership of the Southern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute.

Anytime we can provide you with market research information, consulting, or simply answering a question, just let us know; we are happy to assist.

Sincerely,

Steven R. Norris, MAI, CRE
Norris Realty Advisors
   
2015 Economic Forecast

The last five years have seen a prolonged and very gradual recovery from the Great Recession.  According to the 2015 Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), the second half of this decade should be marked by faster growth, fueled in part by a long overdue acceleration in construction and housing.

Southern California is projected to make more pronounced housing market gains in 2015.  Further improvement will depend in large part on progress in the rest of the economy.

The chart below summarizes the LAEDC California five-year forecast.


You can review the full LAEDC 2015 Economic Forecast here.
Article Headline
 2015: 6 Trends in Commercial Real Estate
 
Last year saw continued improvement in several key commercial real estate sectors; what can we expect from 2015?  Fellow Counselor of Real Estate Peter Burley, Director at the Richard Rosenthal Center offers insights to the coming year.    
 
According to the Urban Land Institute, there are six key trends to keep an eye on for the upcoming new year:
 
1. Continued low supply
2. Increased tolerance for risk
3. Investors will continue to follow the jobs and people
4. Multifamily properties will still be popular
5. Ongoing divergence of the retail sector
6. Industrial sector will continue its steady improvement

Get a copy of this article here. 

 

Also, for a thoughtful, engaging, and comprehensive overview of anticipated national trends, we highly recommend.....   

  

 

co-authored by our friend and fellow CRE, Hugh Kelly.   

 
Mapping America's Future
 
What will the United States look like in 2030 and what major demographic, economic, and lifestyle changes might be anticipated?  
 
The Urban Land Institute has just released a fascinating article and interactive tool that allows readers to project local-level population trends out to 2030.  You're able to pick low, average, or high rates for birth, death and migrations - the three primary drivers of population change - and see the map and trend results instantly.  
 
Take a look at the mapping tool yourself here and begin to imagine how your city and region will fare in the next decade.
 
 
 
Argus Enterprise Cash Flow Software Headline
The most common software platform for discounted cash flow software has been entirely redesigned, and is facing a great deal of interest throughout commercial real estate service markets.

Starting in January, UCLA Extension began instruction in Argus version 16, also known as Argus Enterprise.  This version is a complete remake of the industry standard analysis software for all types of complex commercial real estate. 

Steve Norris has been teaching Argus Enterprise through UCLA this Winter, and he will also be teaching the class that will be offered in the Spring Quarter.  Based on classroom experience thus far, the new version of this software will be a substantial change and challenge for analysts.  Prepare for a bumpy road ahead.

Presently, two classes are full, as Argus software has indicated that the prior version (Argus 15) will no longer be supported by the end of this year.  For more information, go to UCLA Extension's web site. 
 

Appraisal Institute Service
 
It's an honor and privilege to serve during 2015 as the President of the Southern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute. The local Board of Directors of our Chapter is a hard working group of the brightest and best in our profession, and we look forward to a year full of educational offerings, seminars, and informal gatherings. 

Please let me know if you have any questions, or if there is anything we can do to serve you.   
 
Thank you for taking the time to review our Newsletter.  Contact us directly with any questions.

Steven R. Norris, MAI, CRE
Norris Realty Advisors
626-405-9922
steve@norrisadvisors.com