NightWatch
For the Night of 24 April 2016
North Korea: In a rare interview with western media in New York on 23 April, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong proposed that North Korea would suspend its nuclear tests if the United States stops its annual military exercises with South Korea.
Comment: Ri's proposal is a repackaging of Kim Jong Un's New Year's proposal. The terms imply official US recognition and acceptance of North Korea's nuclear program. The US President neatly sidestepped the proposal by saying it was not enough. The US policy is for North Korea to dismantle its nuclear devices/weapons and program.
We judge that Ri's proposal is significant as an invitation to start talks. North Korea will not stop testing and the Allies will not stop training, but the North does want to talk. It needs to open a dialogue with the US as a first step in trying to get sanctions lifted.
The US rejection means the North has to have a more attractive opening bid than just suspending nuclear tests, if it wants to engage the US in talks.
The US restricted the North Korean delegation visiting the UN to UN territory in New York because of North Korea's test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) just hours before Foreign Minister Ri gave his interview.
SLBM Test. South Korean authorities were the first to announce another North Korean attempt to launch an SLBM on 23 April. They said they detected a missile pop-up and fly for only a few seconds.
North Korea media, on the other hand, extolled the event where Kim Jong Un was on hand to provide guidance. The Party daily,
Rodong Sinmun, ran the headline: "Great Success Again in the Underwater Test-Firing of a Strategic Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile -- Respected and Beloved Comrade Kim Jong Un Guided the Test-Firing on the Spot."
"The era of excitement is being even more enthusiastically encouraged by the news of yet another heartwarming, heroic victory..."
"Respected and beloved Comrade Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers Party of Korea, first chairman of the National Defense Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, guided on the spot the underwater test-firing of a strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile..."
'After listening to the underwater test-fire plan at the observation post, respected and beloved Comrade Kim Jong Un gave an order to carry out the underwater test-firing of a strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile.'
"Instantly after the respected and beloved marshal gave the order for the test-firing, a combat alarm went off in the submarine, and it quickly submerged to the maximum depth of water and fired a devastating ballistic missile. The ballistic missile soared from the submarine and flew high into the sky, emitting a huge trail of fire."
Comment: The media treatment was resplendent with imagery of Kim, his party and military acolytes, the scientists, the submarine, the launch tube and the missile. The posted imagery of the missile during flight does not correspond to the South Korean description of what transpired. Still, Kim was beaming.
The myth of North Korean greatness grows, even when its actual achievements flop. In the North Korea of Kim Jung Un, failures are successes whenever the government says so. That type of abuse of information was less frequent during the regimes of Kim Il-sung and Kim Chong-il. Under those leaders, there were severe consequences for failures that embarrassed the regime.
Under Kim Jong Un, the North publishes pictures to prove there are no failures.
The wonder is less that the North Koreans are having trouble with submarine-launched missile technology, and more that they are trying it all and making progress. A single-shot SLBM from a diesel submarine, even if it works, is mainly a target for South Korean commandos.
Yemen: Situation reports over the weekend indicated a surge in clashes and in air attacks.
The main targets of Saudi-led Coalition air attacks were sites held by al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). During this Watch, news services reported that a force of Yemeni government and allied soldiers now control al Mukalla.
Yemeni and Emirati troops advanced to the outskirts of the city on Sunday before mediation by Islamic clerics led to a withdrawal by AQAP fighters who fled westward, according to a local security official.
Comment: The operation to recover al Mukalla is the first major operation against AQAP in the past year of fighting. AQAP was the primary beneficiary of the deadlocked sectarian fighting in western Yemen. It had established a local administration that was running al Mukalla.
AQAP took advantage of the government's preoccupation with the fight against the Houthis to seize other vulnerable towns in the government's rear, specifically Abyan and Azzan. It also exploited weak security in Aden to conduct attacks against Yemeni government buildings and personnel.
The situation report indicated that the AQAP fighters fled west from al Mukalla. If the Yemeni and allied forces continue the offensive and succeed, then this weekend will mark the first deflection point in shifting the Yemen fight from civil war to anti-terrorism operations.
Coalition aircraft conducted multiple air strikes over the weekend, not just against AQAP targets. In the Kuwait talks, the Saudis refused to refrain from using air strikes to retaliate for ceasefire violations.
End of NightWatch for 24 April.
