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June 9, 2016 Volume Two, Issue 6
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Dry Bean Crop Shortfall Forecast
in Several Competitor and Target Markets
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The last year has been very challenging for agriculture in general as a result of the El Nino weather phenomenon. While U.S. dry bean planting is taking place stateside, our on the ground global market intelligence is forecasting dry bean shortfalls in some important markets.
China
According to Fairman International Business consulting, it is anticipated that Chinese bean farmers will plant less than half of the total dry bean acreage planted in 2014 and total production will be less than 250,000 tons. According to Fairman, "this represents a very sudden and significant contraction primarily caused by decreasing worldwide bean prices over the last two years." Total production for 2016 is forecast at less than 250,000 tons. This is down from approximately $350,000 tons. Carryover is diminished as well.
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Source: Fairman International Business Consulting
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Mexico
SAGARPA, Mexico's Agricultural Secretariat is forecasting that final dry bean inventories at the end of September 2016 will be around 91,000 MT, 76% lower than in 2015. SAGARPA is also estimating that the national bean consumption for the 2015-2016 agricultural year will be 1.1 million MT or 9 kilos per capita. The breakdown by variety consumed is: 44% black beans and 25% pinto beans representing 70% of the total bean consumption.
Argentina
Argentina has been hit by bad weather including too much rain and early frost. Our market representative is predicting reduced yields of up to 25-30%. An inside trade source has told us that expected yields are 800-900 kg/Ha. The ten year average by comparison, is about 1.2 mt/Ha. We have also heard reports that frost damaged 50,000 hectares of black and color beans which may reduce yield by as much as 50% in some areas. Argentina has experienced some sort of crop problem for three of the last four years.
Source: USDBC Mercosur
Brazil
Brazil's first dry bean crop had too much rain at harvest. The second crop was planted late and hit by drought. Brazilian traders believe that Brazil will be short on dry beans from July to December. Traditionally Brazil has looked to Argentina to fill supply shortfalls, but with Argentina's crop shortfall this year, the market outlook may be different.
It is difficult to predict what the difficult weather conditions and resulting production and yield shortfalls will mean for U.S. dry bean exports but it's safe to say that there will likely be some new export opportunities this year. We are continuing to assess the specifics and will keep the industry informed as the situation continues to evolve.
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LONG TIME USDBC STAFF MEMBER
RANDY DUCKWORTH
IS MOVING ON
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After over a decade dedicated to expanding global markets for U.S. dry beans, Randy Duckworth will step down from USDBC at the end of the year to begin his new tenure as Executive Director of the Global Pulse Confederation (GPC). Randy was steeped in the world of global agricultural trade and export expansion before he began his time with USDBC. At USDBC he further honed his agricultural trade expertise by serving in a number of different roles including Executive Director, Director of Emerging Markets, and finally directing USDBC's worldwide, Mercosur, CAFTA/DR, and food assistance programs.
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Randy and few friends on last year's reverse trade mission
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Randy has made tremendous contributions to the U.S. dry bean industry over the years, capped off by the success of new programs that he helped develop and direct in Colombia, CAFTA/DR, and Brazil. Randy's departure is of course bittersweet as we are thrilled with his new opportunity at GPC but face the challenge of filling the void he will leave behind. Randy leaves us in good shape as his efforts have put USDBC in an advantageous competitive position in a year where many of our competitors are struggling with dry bean crop shortfalls. Randy will continue with USDBC through the end of year as he begins a gradual transition to his new responsibilities and works together with USDBC leadership on a succession plan.
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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA WANTS
PULSE
SELF SUFFICIENCY BY 2020
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In response to declining pulse yields, increased consumption, and ongoing production challenges, The Government of India (GOI) has laid out a roadmap to achieve pulse self-sufficiency by 2025. The GOI estimates an outlay of over US $60 million over the next four years to; create 150 seed hubs across the country, improve storage and post harvest loss, better processing facilities, and a revolving fund to invest in best practices. The target production has been set at 23.5 million MT by 2020 and 27.5 million MT by 2025. The goal for average yield by 2020 is 900Kg per hectare compared to the current average yield of 750 Kg/hectare. This initiative is being carried out in collaboration with ICRISAT (The international Crops Research Institute for the Semi Arid Tropics). While it is unclear if this initiative will achieve success, it is a clear indication that India will continue to rely on imports of all pulses in the near term. Whether or not the U.S. can compete and grab some of that market share remains a challenge that USDBC will be addressing in its new market plan.
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Particulars
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2014-15
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2015-16**
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Sources
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Production-all Pulses & Beans
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17.15
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18.32
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DES
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Total Import-all pulses & Beans
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4.58
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4.10
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DOC
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Availability-all pulses & Beans
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21.73
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22.42
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Total Exports-Only garbanzos
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0.22
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0.25
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DOC
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Total Availability for Domestic
Consumption-all pulses & Beans
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21.51
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22.17
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**:
For preparation of estimate for 2015-16, production, export and imports
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture &
Cooperation (DAC) and Department of Commerce (DoC)
Availability: Production plus Total Imports; Total Availability for Domestic
Consumption: Availability minus Total export.
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USDBC SUBMITS ANNUAL FUNDING APPLICATION
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The U.S. Dry Bean Council (USDBC) has submitted its annual application for funding, or the
Unified Export Strategy (UES) to USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) for the 2017
program year. Building on over a decade of a successful public/private partnership with
FAS, USDBC once again requested funding to support export development for U.S. dry
beans around the world through the Market Access Program (MAP), the Foreign Market
Development Program (FMD) and the Emerging Markets Program (EMP). USDBC's total funding request this year is $2.8 million between the three programs up from $2.2 million in 2016. The distribution of the funding request is slightly different from last year with a decrease in Emerging Market funds and a higher request for core budget from MAP and FMD. This reflects a shift to longer term programming as some of the newer market exploration initiatives have matured into developing export markets. We continue to request support for market exploration in Brazil and Southeast Asia as we seek to establish a permanent foothold in these markets and we continue to build demand for value added products in the next year. We have proposed new activities in Europe, Developing markets and throughout the Americas. This year's funding application reflects the rapidly changing nature of global export markets and our insight on how best to capture new market share and stay competitive in a year when several other dry bean exporting nations are suffering crop shortfalls. Here's to booming exports in 2017. The full UES application is available upon request.
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MEXICO COCHRAN MISSION COMING TO NORTH DAKOTA
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USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)/Mexico City is sponsoring a Cochran educational mission to North Dakota to support IYOP 2016 and pursue emerging interest in the use of bean based ingredients for snack foods, pastas, etc. Cochran programs are funded by USDA/FAS in collaboration with agricultural cooperators, in this case USDBC and the U.S. Dry Pea and Lentil Council, to craft program focus and visits. The current program under development will likely take place during late summer 2016 and will include visits to ADM, AGT, and a visit to the plant breeding program at NDSU. This is still under development and we will continue to keep you informed as the program comes together. Thanks to USDA/FAS for their continued support of our mission to increase global awareness and consumption of U.S. dry beans.
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Global Reps Market Reports
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We'll see you in San Diego
The U.S. Dry Bean Convention is in San Diego, CA this year.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
July 30 - August 2, 2016
U.S. Dry Bean Convention, San Diego, CA
September 11 - 17, 2016
Japan Trade Mission
Nebraska, California
September 18 - 24, 2016
Asean Trade Mission
North Dakota, Nebraska
September 18 - 24, 2016
Worldwide Trade Mission
North Dakota, Michigan
October 15 - 20, 2016
SIAL Trade Show, Paris, France
November 15 - 18, 2016
Colombia Trade Mission
December 4 - 10, 2016
Central America Trade Mission
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Executive Director
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US D
ry
B
ean
C
ouncil
8000 West Drive, Suite 833, North Bay Village FL 33141
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