man about TOWN
New York City Real Estate Newsletter
Q3 2014
"What's going on Downtown...?"


Once again, I want to thank you for taking the time to read my Quarterly Newsletter. The content I provide aims to keep you informed on the pulse of what is truly happening in our overwhelmingly unique and nuanced marketplace, while still being entertaining. I do hope you enjoy it and am very interested in any feedback or suggestions you might have for future issues.

VIDEOS
Please click on the photos below to see my two videos.
 
1920s version of the ALS Bucket Challenge:
 
 
"Our Town" Promo:
 
In This Issue




I hope you enjoy the videos. The ALS Challenge video which I performed with my daughter was achieved with an iPhone, an App and only one take. "Our Town" was a bit more involved, produced, edited and filmed through a collaboration of Scott Hornsby of Hornsby Films, Nicholas "Klaus" Biagetti of Park Bench Pictures & Michael Croce of MC Delyte Productions. My thanks go out to each of them.

I would like to express a special thank you to Manhattan born man-about-town, Robert Rosenthal, The Food Humorist�, who writes, produces and hosts programs about food and who will be a regular contributor to this newsletter. Please do not miss his Winter piece below "Where to Find Warmth (Through Food and Drink) in NYC."

I would also like to thank Jean-Luc Le D�, for his contribution. Jean-Luc is a past recipient of the James Beard Foundation Award for "Outstanding Wine Service" and the former Sommelier of Daniel. Check out his "Ask your Sommelier" section. He is currently the owner and manager of Le D� Wines, which was named by Zagat's as #1 Wine Shop in New York City. 

Please take an opportunity to see the Contest at the bottom of the newsletter. 
Featured Listing:  875 Fifth Avenue # 14G

Fifth Avenue Elegance...Ideal primary residence or pied-a-terre.

 

Experience glorious East views from your own private terrace and entertain to your heart's delight. Alternatively, allow this to be your own private sanctuary, away from it all. This is a gracious and tranquil, sunny, high floor one bedroom, two bath home with multiple accesses to the outdoors. Enter through a foyer which reveals an expansive home with a large living room, separate dining room and renovated modern kitchen with Gaggenau stove-top range and oven, Sub-Zero refrigerator and wine refrigerator and a Miele dishwasher.  

The apartment has thru-wall AC in the living room and comes with its own separate storage bin. All of this is in one of Fifth Avenue's finest pre-war white glove cooperatives, designed in 1939 by renowned American architect, Emery Roth. The building has full-time doorman security and elevator operators, a new and impressively elegant lobby, a state-of-the-art fitness facility, and a newly renovated laundry room. Living at the corner of East 69th Street also allows you to walk directly across Fifth Avenue through the pedestrian entrance and straight into the Park. The building is just one block from the Frick Collection and just steps to The Guggenheim, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Whitney Museum and all of Madison Avenue's shopping and fine dining.  View Listing.   $1,925,000

Market News

Before we go too "micro" into Manhattan's residential real estate marketplace, let's consider an overall Macro-Economic outlook with this very intriguing Market Commentary from Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners', Byron Wien.
 
A Positive Outlook Amidst Geopolitical Turbulence    by Byron Wien 
 
Every summer for the past several decades I have organized a series of lunches for serious investors who spend their weekends on Eastern Long Island where the temperatures are cooler, the scenery is exceptional and ordinarily intense people are more relaxed.  This year about 90 attended the four lunches on successive August Fridays.  Many of the participants are well known and a number are billionaires.  There are hedge fund managers, corporate leaders, activists, buyout specialists, real estate titans, private equity folk and venture capitalists, providing some diversity in terms of their daily activity.  I am adding newcomers to lower the average age.  The group was correctly positive during the past two summer sessions, so I was curious to see if their mood had changed with so much unrest around the world.  
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US to run out of foreign EB-5 investor visas due to Chinese demand
                                                                        by Tom DiChristopher of the Wall Street Journal

  

Middle Kingdom's wealthy account for 85 percent of the nearly 10,000 EB-5 visas issued

  

Thanks to surging demand among China's wealthy, the U.S. is expected to run out of a type of visa awarded to foreign investors for the first time in the history of the 24-year-old program. The so-called EB-5 visa program has helped New York City real estate developers fund a number of high-profile projects, including the Barclays Center, Silverstein Properties' 30 Park Place and Extell Development's International Gem Tower at 50 West 47th Street. The State Department is permitted to give up to 10,000 EB-5 visas per year to overseas investors who put $500,000 or more into U.S. development projects. A number of China's biggest investors in New York City projects have availed themselves of the program. Chinese individuals claimed 85 percent of the visas this year, according to State Department data cited by the Journal. It will now be more than a year before State will make additional EB-5 visas available to Chinese investors, the newspaper reported.

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...everyone's asking, 
"What is going on Downtown?"
With so much attention and activity occurring in the Downtown Luxury Market, I thought it important to address not only what is actually happening, but also how it is being redefined. The "Luxury" market has been defined by absolute price point, for example anything above $5M being classified as such. Unfortunately, this excludes those one and small two bedroom apartments that are indeed "luxury." That said, luxury is actually being redefined as properties that sell over a certain dollar per square foot level ($/sqft). Today luxury is increasingly being associated with properties priced for over $2,300/sqft. That said, this threshold is likely to continue increasing as time passes.

In the past several years, downtown's inventory and identity have been evolving by what seems to be an overwhelming number of new condominium developments and conversions. The truth behind this is a bit more complex and nuanced. The market turndown of late 2008 and 2009 drastically reduced the number of building applications being filed with the Attorney General's office for these new developments and conversions; a dearth of inventory followed, which as a result also hindered the number of sales. Although far shy of the inventory highs prior to the downturn, by 2013 the pent-up demand made for a stellar year in overall sales volume. The absorption rate (a measure of how much time it takes to sell the current inventory at any one time) for luxury units in the Q1 of 2013 as a whole had dipped to merely 5 months. This year (2014) sales are down year-over-year (as compared with 2013) by approximately one third; however, they are still up approximately 20% on what transpired in 2012. The current overall absorption rate is approximately 8 months, which is considered a supply and demand "equilibrium" (anything between 6-9 months). Currently the absorption rate for both two and three bedrooms falls right within that range; however, since so much of the new inventory has been concentrated in larger four-plus bedroom apartments (therefore increasing the number available), their absorption rate has crept up closer to 11-12 months, with Penthouses as much as 20+ months. Interestingly, the increase in demand for one bedrooms, of which there are fewer, has reduced the absorption rate to merely 4-5 months. Further, available units priced $1M or below has decreased by 16% downtown and 20% in Manhattan as a whole.

Whereas the number of downtown new development and conversion units is drastically expected to increase in the coming years (from an average of approximately 250 new units per year from 2005 to 2012 to approximately 1150+ units between 2013-2016), current overall inventory (including coops) is down significantly from pre-downturn levels.

Miller Samuels reported that in Manhattan, "the priciest sales per square foot concentrated toward the southern end of Central Park, as well as West Chelsea, NoMad and points south. Three bedrooms gained most with 30% price increase from a year ago. 27% of all new development sales this quarter were in 3+ bedrooms. The Manhattan Luxury New Development Market is demonstrating strong advances in pricing and price per square foot. Q2 2014 average price for new development inventory rose 66.3% since Q2 2013 to $3,520,735 from $2,116,759. Q2 2014 average price per square foot for new development inventory is $1,900, up 33.1% since the same quarter last year." 

  

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                                Other market stories...about Town:

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Future Look: 57th Street's Evolving
Supertall Skyline
                                 - New York YIMBY 
    
...with the help of illustrator Armand Boudreaux, YIMBY has fresh images of the skyscraper's position on the skyline, including nearby developments like 220 Central Park South, 111 West 57th Street, 432 Park Avenue, and 53 West 53rd Street. 
 
To see more renderings and to  Read more
 
 
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432 Park Avenue Now Midtown's Tallest Building  
                                                       by Nikolai Fedak for New York YIMBY 
 
The latest photos of progress at 432 Park Avenue come with a diagram and insight courtesy of reader Marcatio Torres, who has been in touch with workers on-site; as most have noticed and as the illustration makes clear, the tower's height is now significant, having nearly reached its 1,397-foot pinnacle. Besides continued vertical progress, the building has also surpassed the official roof heights of all other Midtown skyscrapers, and is now the tallest building north of One World Trade Center. Read More.
 
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"But wait...we're still friends, right?"
 
After Years of Frostiness, a Selective Co-op Tries a Friendlier Facade 
by Matt A.V. Chaban for NY Times
 
Applicants rejected by the board of 'River House' include 
Diane Keaton, Gloria Vanderbilt and Joan Crawford. 
 
 

Even two or three years ago, it would have been all but impossible to write this column. At River House, the mythic and monolithic co-op overlooking the East River, the only thing stouter than the limestone brick walls towering above East 52nd Street and Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive were the building's standards. Those inside would call them traditions; everybody else might regard them as pretensions. Almost no one got in, and news barely escaped.

Now, a new day, certainly a new attitude, perhaps a new appeal, is dawning at the august residence, one of New York City's finest apartment buildings since it opened in 1931. After decades of turning away residents without the right pedigree and refusing to allow brokers to even scribble the building's name in listings, the currents are changing at the home of Henry Kissinger and the fashion maven Deeda Blair and the former home of the author Holly Peterson. Read more.

  

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Residential smackdown: The gleaming new condo towers that are edging out yesterday's "it" towers - The Real Deal   by Mark Mauer
A match-up of Manhattan deve lopments like One57 and 56 Leonard and the buildings they're replacing 
 

What's in vogue one moment is often pass� the next - a maxim that holds true for luxury real estate.

The gleaming towers that are now in fashion in Manhattan are edging out yesterday's "it" buildings, attracting the high-end buyers who might otherwise have bought their predecessors, even when those "old" buildings debuted relatively recently.

Which new developments are taking place of the old?

This month, The Real Deal paired five new Manhattan construction projects with headline-generating buildings of 15 years vintage or less. Purely by being new, the latest projects can boast advantages like fresh finishes and more built-in technology. And in the eyes of a buyer, newer often equates to better.

Developers test waters on pricing, despite warnings over high cost of land.  

Read more   

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Almost every day, it seems, another world-famous architect unveils plans to erect a building in New York City. From first-timers to the local scene like Aha Hadid, whose curvaceous building along the High Line broke ground this year, to tried-and-true veterans like Robert A.M. Stern, who is working on three limestone-heavy projects (of course), it seems pretty much every starchitect on earth is making New York a testing ground for designs. Their brainchilds, mostly housing pricey condos, are zany and classictall and shortcylindrical andpyramidalglassy and, well, glassier. So check out 42 projects star architects are currently working on-and ones recently complete-across New York City, if only to get a sense of the scale of the change our built environment is about to receive. Think of one we missed? Hit up the tipline. Brace! Read More and see renderings.

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The Millennial's Guide to Getting a Mortgage    - Brick Underground
                                                                                                              by Virginia K. Smith 
 
According to the Pew Research Center, millennials (those 32 years old and younger) have it bad, with "the unhappy distinction of being the first generation in modern history to have a lower standard of living than their parents' generation." Ouch! But if you're lucky enough to have squirreled away a down payment (usually 20 to 25 percent in New York City, though high-end co-ops have been known to require as much as 50 percent down), plus have a stable, solid income to pay the monthly bills and a credit score of at least 680, it makes sense to consider getting into the housing market. (Also, congratulations!) But how do you actually get a mortgage?

The steps between starting your search and signing the paperwork on your very own apartment are many, and the process is complicated for young, first-time buyers with little experience in the city's brutal real estate market. (Be sure to check out our comprehensive guide to buying in NYC, as well as some basic mortgage FAQs.) Here's a rundown of challenges millennials face come mortgage-hunting time and-we won't leave you hanging-ways for you to solve them. Read more.
Mortgages & Interest Rates
 Janet Yellen sees first dissent in favour of Fed tightening  - Financial Times 
                                                                                                                                                     By Robin Harding
 
Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve chairwoman, suffered her first dissent in favour of tighter policy as the central bank made a string of carefully balanced changes on Wednesday to note improving US economic health.
Charles Plosser, the hawkish president of the Philadelphia Fed, held out in a nine-to-one vote because he thought the intention to keep rates low for a considerable time after the Fed stopped buying assets did not reflect "considerable economic progress".
Mr Plosser's dissent marks the start of what is likely to be escalating tension within the Fed, as the economy nears full employment and the time for a first interest rate rise draws near.
As was widely expected, the Fed took the next step in its taper on Wednesday - cutting monthly asset purchases from $35bn to $25bn - in line with its intention to end purchases altogether in October.
But it also made a series of subtle changes to its statement, on one hand noting that the danger of persistently lower inflation had "diminished somewhat", but on the other laying the groundwork for low interest rates even as the unemployment rate falls below 6 per cent.
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee dropped a sentence that had described the US unemployment rate as "elevated". But it was replaced with a new line that argued there was still a lot of spare capacity in the labour market.
"A range of labour market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilisation of labour resources," the statement now says. The Fed looks at measures such as the number of part-time workers who want full-time jobs.
The changes on unemployment and inflation offset each other. They suggest the Fed thinks that the downside risk to the economy is getting smaller, but that it still has room to keep rates low in order to push improvements in the labour market.
There was less change than expected in other parts of the Fed's description of the economy, given the run of strong data that culminated on Wednesday with a 4 per cent reading for annualised growth in the second quarter of 2014. 
The statement continues to say that household spending is rising moderately while the housing sector is slow. "Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the committee's longer-run objective," it says. Read More
 
  Short View Video.
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Jonathan A. Kosow
Citibank, N.A.
Home Lending Officer
601 Lexington Avenue, 4th floor
New York, NY 
Office Direct  212.559.3676
Cell 617.510.9446
NMLS #41110

2014 is proving to be a very interesting year for home shoppers.  Limited supply and multiple bids on properties is making it difficult even for qualified buyers to buy the home of their dreams.  The best buyer is a prepared buyer - having all documents in order including your mortgage commitment letter and income and asset documents  makes for the most successful bid package.
 
Mortgage rates continue to hover at historically low levels.  In fact rates are lower today than they were this time in 2013.  This is a huge advantage to mortgage shoppers today.  Eventually rates will go up, especially if we see larger improvement in the jobs sector and any inflationary pressures, but now is a great time to take advantage and lock in.


For current rates, as provided above click here.  
Market Reports & Resources
Market Report Sales:  The Aggregate: 2nd Quarter 2014 
The second quarter of 2014 has seen an overall year-over climb in asset prices as sales continued to pick up slightly through the start of the year. Despite a historically persistent inventory shortage, the absorption rate and days on market both increased slightly from the first quarter, and most product types increased moderately during this period. Conversely, the year-over numbers generally increased more dramatically with regard to most pricing metrics. Simultaneously, building permits continued to increase year-over-year by approximately 85% for New York City's five boroughs. The city appears to have remained an active environment for real estate investment, development, and a potential safe-haven for domestic and international funds alike. Read More.
 
Leasing Report for August 2014:  click here    
 
Seller's Guide:  click here

Buyer's Guide: click here
 
Rental Guide:   click here
NYC Food for the Foodie

Robert Rosenthal

The Food Humorist�, is a Manhattan born man-about-town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. Some can be found here - Modern Food Man.

The Clam: It Fits Just Right

Sometimes a restaurant fits just right. Comfortable in its own space, its location, its moment in time. Tucked into the corner of Hudson and Leroy streets in the West Village, The Clam is such a place. Co-owned by the pros behind the nearby Little Owl and Market Table, Joey Campanaro and Mike Price have brought their considerable skill set to bear on their new seafood-centric establishment. 

 

The interior exudes a built-in warmth that belies its newness, conveyed by exposed brick walls, a funky tile ceiling, subdued lighting and fresh flowers on each of the 16 white cloth-covered tables. The eater-friendly, six-seat bar faces the exposed kitchen in back. The crowd is handsome, its buzz punctuated by a likable playlist featuring mid-70's era soft rock one evening, represented by 10cc performing "The Things We Do for Love."  

   

                          Scallop crudo is sliced and topped with pear, toasted hazelnuts, chives and lime. 

 

The menu is seasonal (check), local (check), and all made in-house (check), the price of entry for a competitive, contemporary eatery. The point of difference here is, well, the things they do for love. That means a majority of intensely fresh seafood, and also includes charming service plus a superbly selected wine list. Among many reasonably priced choices, one could discover Occhipinti SP-68, an unfiltered, organic blend from Sicilian superstar Arianna Occhipinti. 

Read More at The Daily Meal 

Apps $8-15 | Specialties $9-24 | Entrees $22-31| Sides $8 | Dessert $9 | Cocktails $12-15

420 Hudson Street  (corner of Leroy Street & St. Lukes Place)  (212) 242-8420 

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                                                            by Marguerite Preston for NY EATER
As Labor Day approaches, so too does the season of big restaurant openings. Between now and the end of the year, many new restaurants will make their debut. This fall will see the arrival of new projects from some of the city's most acclaimed chefs and new hotel restaurants from more than one major restaurateur. There will also be a couple big moves, a few promising up-and-comers, and maybe, just maybe, Brooklyn Fare Manhattan will finally open. Here is a guide to the 25 most exciting restaurants opening before the end of the year.  Click to see all 25 new spots
Wine:  Ask your Sommelier
Jean-Luc Le D�

Recipient of the James Beard Foundation Award for "Outstanding Wine Service" 2003 and former Sommelier of Daniel.


The Lords of Chenin...

 

Discover Chenin Blanc!

When you ask anyone in the wine business to name the wines they get really excited about, you can put even money on a Chenin Blanc appearing on the list.  The historical greatness of Chenin from the Loire is well established but the future is just as bright as the past, with a wide array of young, innovative, and immensely talented vinegrowers fighting the good fight.  In terms of quality, array of styles, longevity, and shear deliciousness, it belongs in the same conversation with Chardonnay and Riesling.  Every year we hope against hope this will be the time the general public discovers Chenin Blanc.

With that in mind, we've put together a Master Class in Chenin Blanc.  6 bottles from some of the greatest producers of the Loire Valley for your edification and enjoyment! Read More.

 

To read and learn more, see Jean-Luc's site: Le D� Wines - Rated # 1 Wine Store by Zagat's.

Have a question? 
Ask your Sommelier by clicking here.
Graffiti:
By the talented Brazilian muralist Eduardo Kobra.
This piece is on the SW corner of West 25th Street & 10th Avenue.

For other Murals around Town... Click Here
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"How New York City Works"   ...This is just funny...    by Joshua Brown

Me:     What's your problem?

Him:   Nothing, still trying to sell this stupid apartment...

Me:     So? Sell it.

Him:   Not so simple, getting lowballed and the brokers coming up with buyers are really just trawling for 

  the listing.

Me:     What do you mean lowballed? What are you asking?

Him:    One million.

Me:     There's your problem right there.

Him:    What do you mean? It's a junior four in the East 70s with one bath, what should I ask for?

Me:      Ten million dollars.

Him:    What the hell are you talking about? It has one bedroom and a dining room that converts to a

    smaller bedroom.

Me:       So what? It's New York City, just list it at $10 million and watch the buyers roll in to fight over it.

Contest:
What building appears in the background of my 1920s ALS Bucket Challenge Video? The first three individuals to provide the right answers will each receive a gift card to The Dakota Bar or Cafe Tallulah.
Concierge:  Luxury Attach�
At Town you will receive access to our own on-site Concierge, powered by Luxury Attach�. They are the premiere lifestyle management company offering day-to-day assistance and solutions to our clients. They routinely advise on the most cutting-edge cultural experiences, including but not limited to: securing reservations at coveted restaurants and nightlife venues, planning client entertainment outings, coordinating on- and off-site events, assisting with gift purchasing, and planning international travel. True luxury is about having both time and convenience - both of which are achieved through our partnership with Luxury Attach�.
Contact Information:
Roberto Cabrera Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
 
TOWN
110 Fifth Avenue, 6th FL
New York, NY 10011
P: 646.998.7445
F: 646.738.7496

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Disclaimer: What is contained here is not meant or construed to be the opinion, common practice or policies of any residential real estate firm. This is simply what I've experienced to be common practice within the residential real estate market in Manhattan over the past sixteen years. This is meant to be informative, enlightening and hopefully enjoyable. 

 

Copyright � 2013 - Roberto Cabrera - Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker. All Rights Reserved.