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As a political consultant, he has worked with candidates and parties in 27 countries.
 
Radnor Geopolitical Report 
London, November 24, 2015  
    
       

Invasion by demographics

Part III:
The long-term demographic challenge from within  

by David Murrin


The long-term challenge from immigration is the occupation from within. The remnants of the old Super Western Christian Empire, in the form of the European Union, now have a very low birth rate. Opening its borders to the refugees and immigrants from a younger Middle Eastern ascending Super Empire with expansive demographics will inevitably lead to a power shift within Europe.

Furthermore, without the essential energy provided by expanding demographics, the European system is just not competitive globally. Without economic success, it cannot generate a desire within the new Islamic immigrant population to integrate with the European values. Instead, there is a significant risk that they will remain apart and disenfranchised within the social fabric and over time grow significantly larger as a population until one day they will be the dominant demographic within a democratic system, which will mean they will inevitably hold the reins of power.

Look at America as an example: During its initial 19th-century expansion through immigration, America benefited from colonisation from Europe as the immigrants became Americans first and, at the same time, they came from cultures in their European homelands that expounded similar values. In essence, they all came from the same Super Western Christian Empire with a common Christian meme.

The current immigration situation in Europe is not dissimilar to the rise of the black and Hispanic electorates in America who, once they had reached a critical percentage of the population, were key to the support for Barack Obama and his presidency, casting aside the old white power base. The difference is that both the blacks and Hispanics share common religious values through Christianity, which bound all parties in common beliefs and spiritual grounds.

In the case of the Islamic migration into Europe, it seems very unlikely that the immigrants will integrate successfully with the older, less dynamic remnants of the Christian Empire. This will lead to prolonged social conflicts within the European societies. The only way this situation might be mitigated is if the underlying European economy were growing rapidly, allowing the new immigrants to start at the bottom of the employment ladder and gain, through hard work, wealth and standing.

This process was apparent in the mass migration to America: immigrants who were industrious became wealthy and cornerstones of the expanding society.

The future is fraught with hazard. With the limited prospects for European indigenous population growth and a policy that continues to open its doors to refugees from the Middle East, Europe risks long-term social changes and disenfranchisement of the indigenous populations in the decades ahead. Europe will move away from our much valued vision of a diverse, yet integrated, secular, democratic and tolerant society.

There seem to be few potential remedies to this situation. The first is the creation of increased levels of national identity and the definition of the values of citizenship. These, for example, would include secularism, tolerance, fairness and democracy. Whilst all citizens should be expected to expound these core principals, immigrants especially would have to embrace these values and continue to adhere to them. The idea that, for example, Sharia law should have any validity within a European nation should not be tolerated at any level.

Furthermore, the assimilation process of new immigrants should be expected to take at least two generations and, as such, the process of immigration growth must be gradual to allow for this process to prevent quantum changes to the underlying national culture.

Meanwhile, the only long-term potential remedy to this situation and the economic malaise is for the European states to both close their doors to immigration and, instead, expand their populations organically. The only way to begin this would be to provide powerful social and financial incentives for families to have three and four children.

Encouraging a rapid demographic expansion would create the natural conditions that drive regionalisation and provide a natural demographic immunity to the long-term challenges facing Europe. Such a strategy would require a strategic vision that, sadly, seems absent to European leadership today, and the courage to mount a campaign to address this extremely sensitive political issue.
 
 
Reproduced by permission. To read Parts I or II, please click here.
 
  •  David Murrin is chief executive officer of Emergent Asset Management Ltd, London. A leading China-watcher, he is the author of Breaking the Code of History. He and Ken Feltman have worked together on business and charity projects. 

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